核抑止理論から見た危機管理－冷戦期と冷戦後の比較－

抄録

The most important theme for crisis management for a state is early termination of international crises which may escalate into a major war. During the Cold War era, which had been characterized by continuing nuclear arms race between the two Superpowers, prevention of nuclear war was the top priority of global peace. In responding to Soviet challenges such as the Berlin Crises, the United States exploited successfully deterrent effect of nuclear weapons. Nuclear deterrence had been the cornerstone of U.S. defense policy.

In the Cold War era, both the U.S. and the Soviet Union reacted very cautiously to virtually all crises because they knew well that failure of deterrence meant mutual suicide. In the post-Cold War era, which is characterizes by multipolarity, strategic calculations of major powers are difficult to predict. As compared with the Cold War era, it is more difficult to maintain alliances in crises, because each country has different stake.

In recent years, repeated crises both at home and abroad has heightened Japanese awareness with the importance of crisis management. However, Japanese interest in crisis management has so far been narrowly limited to policy questions such as swift decision-making process in crisis. In light of the fact that Japanese defense policy continues to rely upon U.S. nuclear deterrence, it is imperative that Japan pay more attention to theoretical aspect of crisis management. Otherwise, Japan could not respond effectively to future international crises.