河川工事の安全管理に用いる「出水警報システム」の長期適用と予測精度の向上に関する検討

抄録

Large-scale overflow could inflict serious damage on river work in terms of safety, cost and schedule control. Freshet prediction system was developed and applied to a river work for three years. Applicability of the system was discussed in this paper. The system used three prediction methods in order to gain long-term prediction and robustness operation. The results show that the system was effective performance practically. Input data for the system are time series data of analyzed rainfall distribution and forecast rainfall data. It was figured that not only accuracy of the distribution and the forecast but also spatial rainfall distribution patters such as the line precipitation zone affect performance of the system.