Interest rates shock which is a measurement of monetary policy changes has significant effect on stock return. Most of the evidences are from the U.S., U.K, Japan and other developed countries. However, there is rare empirical analysis considering China’s case. As an important emerging stock market, China’s stock market shows many specific characters comparing with developed and strong efficient stock market. On the other hand, China’s base interest rates are only controlled by the central bank but not the monetary market which also differ from developed countries. So China’s specificities from both stock markets and interest rates determination mechanism motivate us to analyze the relationship between China’s stock return and interest rates shock. We first adopts Markov Regime Switching model to divide China’s market into Bull Market (highest mean, media variance), Volatility Market (media mean, lowest variance) and Bear Market (lowest mean, highest variance). And then we find monetary policy shocks do not have significantly negative impacts on the stock return either in the Bull Market regime or No-Market-Regime-Division data as a whole However, a significant negative relation between monetary policy shocks and stock return does exist in both the Bear and Volatility Market regimes.

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Hu Jintao administration (Hu-Wen administration), which launched in 2002, proposed “Harmonious Society” as a catchphrase of their own policy. It is generally understood that “Harmonious Society” which raised the “protection of the weak” is a kind of antithesis to the principle of Jiang Zemin administration, adopting the “economic growth oriented” policy. Actually, however, the basic direction of economic policy in the Hu administration is not different from the Jiang Zemin regime. On the other hand, the following phenomenon, to be considered as the background of the “over accumulation of capital”, seem to be increasingly serious in the era of Hu Jintao. a) the decline of the labor’s share, due to the reform of state-owned enterprises and the intensified competition among the non-state enterprises, b) the expansion of the corporate saving or retained earnings of nonstate enterprises, c) the sluggish consumption of the household sector, due to a immature of the social security system. Series of policies aiming to “Harmonious Society”, could not provide fundamental solution the phenomenon of “Over Accumulation of Capital” Rather, these policies were assumed to be the postponement of the problem, through the intervention by the state into the market. However, such strengthening of the state intervention, have further strengthen the contradiction of “Over Accumulation of Capital”, on the other hand. Therefore, the degree of state’s intervention in Hu administration has been stronger and stronger as a result. In other words, the Hu administration seems to fall into the “trap” of sorts.

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The characteristic of the Hu Jintao’s administration is that an attempt to revise the development model through emphasizing “harmonious” as a catchword Chinese Society should aim and expressing “view of scientific development” as urgent matter the party and government should wrestle. There is a strong awareness of crisis that whether China could be “harmonious” or not would affect on the sustainably of economic development. Income disparity in China expanded rapidly in short period compared with other Asian and Transition countries. But there are few opinions China’s one party regime will collapse. However Gini index rise, the awareness against inequality has not sharpened because the degree of tolerance for inequality and competition is high and the personal factor is attached importance for success. It seems that tunnel effect and POUM effect explain this awareness mechanism against inequality in china. One of the serious problems for party and government is no one knows how long will those effects continue. Chinese society is just on the way of rapid urbanization, computerization and aging; the awareness mechanisms against inequality will sharpen as a result that those effects weaken.

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