The World Bosai Forum/International Disaster Risk Conference@Sendai 2019 (WBF2019) held in November 2019 in Sendai City, Japan, was successful in bringing together actors from multiple sectors to advance the goals of disaster risk reduction (DRR). We would like to take this opportunity to express our heartfelt gratitude to all those who participated in the sessions, exhibitions, poster sessions, and mini-presentations, as well as to the many local people who came to the event.
According to the World Bosai Forum , 871 participants from 38 countries attended the WBF2019 which included 50 oral sessions, 3 keynote speeches, 47 poster sessions, 33 mini-presentations, and 14 exhibition booths, which contributed to deepening the discussion and promotion of the “Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, 2015–2030” (SFDRR) and in particular progress towards the achievement of Global Target E, to substantially increase the number of countries with national and local disaster risk reduction strategies by 2020. Including lessons learned from the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami, local knowledge and solutions towards advancing BOSAI were actively shared and discussed among the participants who joined this global forum, from various organizations and sectors. In particular, there were many sessions in which young people and private companies played a key role.
The guest editors are pleased to publish this special issue of the Journal of Disaster Research, which is comprised of 13 articles sharing the research advancements presented at the WBF2019. We hope that this special issue on the WBF2019 will contribute to the literature on disaster science and further advances in disaster risk reduction.
In November 2013, Super Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda) hit the Philippines. It caused heavy loss of lives and extensive damages to buildings and infrastructure. When collapsed buildings are focused on, it is interesting to find that these buildings did not collapse for the same reasons after the landfall of the typhoon and storm surge. The objective of this study is to develop a statistical model for building damage due to Super Typhoon Haiyan and its storm surge. The data were collected in collaboration with Tanauan Municipality, the Philippines. The data for the inundation map were obtained by field surveys conducted on-site to determine the cause of the damages inferred from satellite data. The maximum wind speed was derived from the Holland parametric hurricane model based on the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) typhoon track data and the inundation depth of storm surge was calculated using the MIKE model. Multinomial logistic regression was used to develop a model to identify the significant factors influencing the damage to buildings. The result of this work is expected to be used to prepare urban plans for preventing damage from future storms.
The 2016 Alberta wildfires resulted in devastating human, socio-economic, and environmental impacts. Very little research has examined pediatric resilience (5–18 years) in disaster-affected communities in Canada. This article discusses the effects of the wildfire on child and youth mental health, community perspectives on how to foster resilience post-disaster, and lessons learned about long-term disaster recovery by drawing on data collected from 75 community influencers following the 2016 Alberta wildfires. Community influencers engaged in the delivery of services and programs for children, youth, and families shared their perspectives and experiences in interviews (n = 30) and in focus group sessions (n = 35). Using a purposive and snowball sampling approach, participants were recruited from schools, community organizations, not-for-profit agencies, early childhood development centers, and government agencies. The results show that long-term disaster recovery efforts require sustained funding, particularly in meeting mental health and well-being. Implications and recommendations are provided.
In the phase after disasters, particularly those of an unprecedented magnitude, governance structures often emerge specifically oriented toward rebuilding, with a post-disaster institution at its center to head the reconstruction process. However, little is understood about such institutions’ actual operation, impact on recovery, and role in recovery governance. As post-disaster institutions are trending in recovery, it is important to better understand their nature. As a first step to comprehending the role of these institutions, this study explores a framework for evaluating their success and unpacking the implications of managing recovery in a compressed timeframe. Methods included literature and ethnographic analysis using first-hand knowledge accumulated through longitudinal in-person interviews. The case institution is the Office of the Presidential Assistance on Reconstruction and Recovery (OPARR), established after the 2013 typhoon Haiyan (local name Yolanda) in the national government of the Philippines. Two major findings are reported: First, seven themes – “establishment,” “funding,” “coordination,” “politics,” “leadership,” “achievement,” and “post-disestablishment” – are identified as useful to assess post-disaster institutions. Second, concepts of permanency versus impermanency of institutions after disasters and bottom-up participatory versus top-down structured processes are identified as key implications of operating recovery under time compression, and as areas for further research. The proposed framework provides a basis to better understand and ultimately improve these institutions’ operation and will ideally further efforts to research cross-comparisons in various locations. The study results also suggest a first step in increasing knowledge toward more effective institutions and refining methodological approaches to better examine institutional operation and recovery governance.
“The World Bosai Forum/International Disaster Risk Conference in Sendai,” or just “World Bosai Forum” has been held every two years since 2017. The theme of this forum regards what is needed to create “the opportunity” and “the idea” among and between humans and things, how to attract the attention of various stakeholders inside and outside the country in terms of disaster prevention and mitigation, and contributing to discussions on international strategies for disaster prevention. This paper considers how the World Bosai Forum should be by comparing the World Bosai Forum 2017 and the World Bosai Forum 2019, including aspects like their participants and content, to further contribute to disaster prevention and mitigation inside and outside the country.
Past disasters may indicate that scientific knowledge is not necessarily incorporated in the decision-making process of disaster risk reduction (DRR). The 21st Technical Committee (TC21) of the Asian Civil Engineering Coordinating Council (ACECC) was established in 2016 to promote transdisciplinary approach (TDA). The TDA seeks for systematic organizational structures and processes that make all disciplines and sectors work together to make scientific knowledge become integral part of the decision-making process. The TC21 performed a session at the 2019 World Bosai Forum held in Sendai city, Japan. The presentations commonly touched on the issues of how to create and transfer new knowledge of DRR through the TDA. As a follow-up, the authors reviewed the presentations and studied the processes of creating new knowledge in terms of “modes and cycles of knowledge.” Two novel cases are presented in this article, for which experts of natural and social sciences teamed up to engage with the local communities to recover and/or enhance resilience. This article gives two main takeaways. First, one of the important commonalities of these two cases is the processes of externalizing the tacit knowledge, which refers to unrecorded experiences, feelings, and insight. Externalization is the crucial process without which the combination with the contemporary explicit knowledge would be difficult. Second, the new knowledge itself does not implement DRR. We need the know-hows to turn the new knowledge into action of DRR. A broad range of know-hows are required, such as establishing the organizational structures, funding schemes, and training programs. The future challenge, therefore, is to design a TDA that will integrate and implement these know-hows.
Coastal regions around the Pacific Ring of Fire share the risk of massive earthquakes and tsunamis. Along with their own political-economic, cultural and biophysical contexts, each region has their own history and experiences of tsunami disasters. Coastal areas of Washington State in the U.S. are currently at risk of experiencing a tsunami following a massive Magnitude 9 (M9) earthquake anticipated in the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ). Looking ahead to consider adaptive planning in advance of a tsunami following this M9 event, this paper explores how lessons from recent megaquake- and tsunami-related experiences of risk-based planning and relocation in coastal areas of Japan and Chile could inform anticipatory action in coastal Washington State. Based on a comparison of earthquake and tsunami hazards, social factors, and the roles of government, this paper outlines a framework to compare policy contexts of tsunami risk-based planning and relocation in three Ring of Fire countries, including factors shaping the possible transfer of approaches between them. Findings suggest some aspects of comparative significance and commonalities shared across coastal communities in the three countries and at the same time highlight numerous differences in governance and policies related to planning and relocation. Although there are limitations to the transferability of lessons in disaster adaptive planning and anticipatory action from one national/regional context to another, we believe there is much more that Washington and the Pacific Northwest can learn from Japanese and Chilean experiences. In any context, risk reduction policies and actions need to garner political support in order to be implemented. Additional case study research and detailed analysis is still needed to understand specific lessons that may be applied to detailed risk-based planning and relocation programs across these different national contexts.
The goal of the Scientific Session: “Advances of International Collaboration on M9 Disaster Science” at the 2nd World Bosai Forum (WBF) in Sendai in November 2019 was to share progress on research projects and findings related to an M9 mega-disaster event, building on outcomes from a March 2019 collaborative workshop on M9 disaster science between research partners from the International Research Institute of Disaster Science (IRIDeS)/Tohoku University, University of Washington-Seattle (UW), and the Research Center for Integrated Disaster Risk Management (CIGIDEN). This paper reports on the presentations during the WBF Scientific Session, which shared updates and outputs of research collaborations from different disciplines, following the themes of risk-based planning, structural engineering, tsunami observation and early warning, and tsunami simulation and probabilistic tsunami risk assessment. This international and cross-disciplinary collaboration has led to the advancement of a number of specific research projects in different fields, as well as a robust network of researchers in the three countries. Based in coastal regions facing similar risks of massive earthquakes and tsunami in Japan, the United States, and Chile, it is hoped that ongoing and future collaboration within this network will continue to advance knowledge of disaster science and international disaster risk reduction.
Introduction: Health professionals and support staff need to be prepared for disasters and know how to respond. This study aimed to examine a one-day “Conductor-type disaster healthcare management personnel” training course and its effect among healthcare professionals. Tohoku University and Fukushima Medical University are experienced in disaster response preparedness and they conducted the one-day course comprising multiple sessions at the World Bosai Forum-2019 (WBF-2019). Method: The course introduced the recent activities of four groups: the Practical Disaster Risk Reduction Research Group; the Natural Science Research Group; the Disaster Humanities Research Group; and the Disaster Medicine Research Group. Unifying four scientific areas based on the theory of the disaster cycle, the research field “disaster science” has been created through interdisciplinary cooperation. The participants completed reports, which were then analyzed using the KJ method. Discussion: The program participants wanted to gain practical knowledge about disasters and have a multifaceted perspective on disaster response. Participants who attended other sessions had an interest in comparing their training with the training provided by other sessions on disaster preparedness. Comparisons included determining the effectiveness of high-level disaster medical preparations from a multilateral viewpoint and involving an interdisciplinary research team in disaster medical preparations to prepare for future disaster events. Conclusion: The participants identified that interdisciplinary activities lead to an improvement in knowledge, skills, or attitudes toward disaster preparedness. There needs to be a greater focus on disaster medicine care teams, including research on both past and future disasters.
This study aims to clarify the recent progress made by the Global Centre for Disaster Statistics (GCDS) as presented at the GCDS session of the World Bosai Forum/International Disaster Risk Conference 2019 (WBF2019) and the subsequent expert meeting and to discuss the next step for the GCDS. The authors also attempt to grasp the position of the GCDS among the disaster risk reduction (DRR) activities worldwide to find a clue for evaluating the recent progress made by the GCDS so far. First, the authors describe a fact regarding the session and the expert meeting followed by an observation focusing on their output in a qualitative manner. Second, the authors adopt a text mining technique to position the GCDS in relation to the other global DRR activities. The results suggest that the GCDS has steadily progressed in its activities, which were evaluated positively by the stakeholders at the GCDS session of the WBF2019 and the subsequent expert meeting. At the same time, some new challenges that the GCDS should cope with in the coming years were pointed out. Furthermore, the results of text mining that examined the corpora composed of the descriptions regarding the Sendai Framework Voluntary Commitments (SFVCs) of the global DRR activities support the notion that the GCDS has been conducting its activities in a relatively common and less biased manner, which are also aligned with the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 (SFDRR). Thus, it can be concluded that the GCDS should keep moving forward with the current momentum that has contributed to the achievement of the recent progress.
An overview of the “Fukuzumi-machi Fire and Disaster Drill & Experience Study Tour” held as a related event of the Sendai Symposium for Disaster Risk Reduction and the Future at the 2nd World Bosai Forum/International Disaster and Risk Conference in Sendai, organized in November 2019. In addition, by showing the activity model of sustainable community development for disaster resilience and human resources development for disaster risk reduction by the Fukuzumi-machi Neighborhood Association, we contribute to the global promotion of community-based independent and sustainable activities for disaster risk reduction.
This paper describes the Fourth Disaster Prevention Treasure Hunt, which took place at the Second World Bosai Forum in November 2019, as an event related to the Sendai Disaster Prevention Future Forum. In particular, we focus on the growth and community contribution of the Katahira Children’s Board for Community Development, among other efforts in human resources development for disaster management undertaken by the Katahira Community Development Association. In tandem with Children’s Board, the “Disaster Risk Reduction × Treasure Hunting Game” serves as a model for sustainable activities for disaster risk reduction. We believe that this model can contribute to the global promotion of community-based, self-directed, and sustainable activities for disaster risk reduction.
To predict and suppress human casualty in a future tsunami disaster, it is crucial to analyze victim information from past disasters and clarify the causes of human casualty. Examining the causes of human casualty requires analyses that combine various hazard information and victim information in subregional units. This study aims to grasp the factors that caused human casualty during the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011 using Miyagi Prefectural Police Headquarters’ victim information. Therefore, at Ishinomaki City, Miyagi Prefecture, we researched the spatial distribution of causes of death based on the victims’ addresses and the corpse location, as well as the occurrence factor of each cause of death. As a result, we obtain the following results. (1) The spatial distribution of victims based on the corpse location is more clearly related to the hazard than the victim’s address. In other words, it is proved that the detection site of the body is significant when examining the relationship between human casualty and hazards. (2) The hypothesis of each cause of death is verified based on the spatial distribution of each cause of death, hazard information, the victim’s age, and the date of detecting the body. As a result, it is suggested that drowning, death due to fire, and hypothermia are causes of death related to external forces. It is also suggested that hypothermia and heart disease are causes of death related to individual fragility. (3) Such a possibility showed that the cause of death could not be identified for death from unknown origin due to the bodies’ decay resulting from taking time to detect the dead bodies. (4) We propose a diagram of relationship between the causes of death and the occurrence of factors of death at Ishinomaki City. In the future, to generalize the relationship, it is considered that the same analysis will be required in the coastal municipalities of Miyagi Prefecture.
While learning opportunities dealing with communities have been increasing in Japan in recent years, learning itself has not been subjected to significant analysis. In this study, we converted into text data the reflection sheets of a total of 1,305 students who were enrolled in the community fieldwork course required for all first-year students at Miyagi University, a public university, from 2017 to 2019, and used quantitative text analysis to analyze the data. The results suggested that the students acquired knowledge that could not be obtained from pre-learning by visiting the communities, encountering locals, and interviewing local company personnel. In particular, those who visited tsunami-affected municipalities along the coast came into contact with the realities of tsunami damage and manifested discoveries with regard to the community’s activities before and after the disaster, such as the residents’ daily lives and industries.
The Global Centre for Disaster Statistics (GCDS) at the International Research Institute of Disaster Science (IRIDeS) at Tohoku University was established in April 2015 to support the monitoring of the global targets of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 (SFDRR). The GCDS, in partnership with the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), is to provide support for National Disaster Management Offices (NDMOs) to build capacity in developing national disaster loss and damage statistics, an essential tool used in monitoring and policy making for the reduction of disaster risk. Since its establishment, the GCDS has been contributing to the implementation of the SFDRR.
In 2019, the GCDS participated in the Sendai Framework Voluntary Commitments (SFVCs), launched by the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR). Although the information regarding the activities of the GCDS is described in detail in the first Synthesis and Analysis Report of the SFVC , one of the activities committed to in its SFVC is to publish special issues of the Journal of Disaster Research as a contribution to the development of disaster statistics. The guest editors are pleased to publish the third special issue, which contains valuable academic articles closely related to the activities of the GCDS.
We hope that this special issue on the Development of Disaster Statistics makes a significant contribution to the literature on disaster statistics and accelerates its development.
The Global Centre for Disaster Statistics (GCDS) in Tohoku University was established in April 2015. One of its main missions is to support the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 (SFDRR) in the monitoring and evaluation of progress by providing support at a national level for building the capacity to develop nationwide statistics on disaster damage and by establishing an improved global database for such statistics. The objective of this study was to find clues for the effective measurement of disaster damage utilizing disaster statistics. In disaster loss databases, we often encounter so many observed variables that it is difficult to establish how severe each disaster was in total. Thus, it was considered that introducing a whole new compound indicator to estimate the scale of each disaster properly would be beneficial. In this context, the authors conducted a principal component analysis (PCA) to introduce new compound indicators. The material data for the analysis were retrieved via the global disaster-related database (GDB) provided by the GCDS. Consequently, it was posited that the score of the first principal component, calculated by a PCA, could be an effective indicator to estimate the specific impact of a disaster. We believe that the findings and proposal of a new indicator in this study will contribute to the literature in that new clues to establish an evidence-based criteria and threshold of disaster data collection are provided.
This paper shares key findings from past studies on Post Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA) in Indonesia, to be used as inputs for future research. We used Google Scholar to identify the relevant articles for analysis. From the 297 results obtained, we selected 25 materials, which are reviewed in detail. We classified the findings in the selected literature into 4 topics. (1) Cases of PDNA implementation in Indonesia: many studies deal with the Indian Ocean Tsunami and the Central Java Earthquake. (2) Policy aspects: the previous literature demonstrated PDNA policies and regulations, on which not only the National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB) but also others (e.g., Ministry of Home Affairs) have primary jurisdiction. (3) Coordination of implementation: coordination by the local disaster management agencies (BPBD) when facing challenges. (4) Methodological issues: the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) methodology does not perfectly fit in practice. One of the most significant implications drawn from the review is that more research is needed to examine policy aspects. The existing studies tend to focus mainly on BNPB, and such BNPB-centric perspectives prevented a comprehensive identification of the relevant actors, leading to a narrow range of analysis on PDNA. Our review suggests that changing viewpoints, being mindful of the BNPB function, is beneficial for further understanding PDNA implementation in Indonesia.
Throughout the digitization of the petrochemical industry, the Beidou technology-based disaster monitoring, evaluation, and early warning network system has supported emergency decision making for oil and gas accidents. Many problems arise throughout the emergency decision-making process during oil–gas accidents, such as the limited time for decision making, high complexity, and inadequate emergency plans. Targeting these issues, we propose the construction of a case library using a Bayesian network. This way, when a new accident occurs, its similarity and deviation indexes could be matched against those of historical cases registered in the database. As such, the candidate cases are adjusted using a case combination and pruning method, yielding the final qualified case model. A case verification of the “11.22” Sinopec Oil pipeline leak and explosion in Qingdao reveals that the proposed method only requires an oil and gas accident database to be built in advance, eliminating the need for sampling data to make decisions, and reducing the search space. Using the proposed case-based reasoning, historical data and experience regarding oil and gas emergency decisions can be activated and reused, which would greatly improve the modeling efficiency of the Bayesian network.
In this article, we analyzed the effects of radioactive contamination from the Semipalatinsk nuclear test site on food choices in Kazakhstan. Nearly 90% of citizens in Kazakhstan knew their health had been affected by radioactive material from the nuclear test site, with more than 50% of citizens still confirming the safety of foodstuffs regarding radioactive materials when purchasing food. However, citizens in the vicinity of the nuclear test site did not take countermeasures against internal exposure due to declining fear of radioactivity, despite refraining from purchasing food from near the nuclear test site. More than 80% of Kazakhstan understood that exposure to radioactive materials was both external and internal. Further, Kazakhs were more aware of the effects of internal exposure on the human body than either Ukrainians or Japanese. Elderly people who remembered the times when nuclear tests had been conducted were aware of radioactive materials in food. High-income individuals took measures to control radioactive contamination in consideration of their nutritional balance, while low-income individuals refrained from purchasing food from near the nuclear test site as a means of controlling potential contamination. In Kazakhstan, more than 60% of citizens did not take measures against internal exposure, but the number of citizens who were concerned about radioactive materials was much higher than in either Ukraine or Japan. In Kazakhstan, 30–40% of citizens, particularly women, would buy at least 20% more if foodstuffs with lower than the regulated level of radioactive materials were sold.
The torrential rain (named “the July 2018 heavy rain”) from June 28 to July 8 in 2018 resulted in tremendous human and property damage. There were 237 deaths and 7,173 cases of flooding above the floor level. During the torrential rain, the low rate of evacuation behavior of residents in the affected area was also a problem. The Okayama prefecture conducted a mail survey with residents that suffered housing damage caused by the torrential rain (valid sample n = 3,765). The survey measured what residents’ awareness and knowledge were of flooding before the torrential rain, residents’ prediction of flooding and choice and reason of evacuation behavior during the emergency heavy rain warning and the evacuation order (emergency). This study analyzed the determinants of residents’ evacuation behaviors during the torrential rain with the survey data. The results indicated that, although most residents were aware of hazard maps before the torrential rain, few predicted flooding. Most residents were aware of the evacuation shelters and had a prior evacuation plan. However, some residents made no attempt to evacuate, even when their houses were damaged. During the emergency heavy rain warning, feeling a sense of crisis was an important factor to promote evacuation behavior. And, during the evacuation order (emergency), the majority of those who took actual evacuation behaviors was those who were approached by public sectors such as the fire department and the police. Moreover, residents’ judgment based on scientific information such as hazard maps and prediction of flooding before the torrential rain had little effect on evacuation behavior during the emergency heavy rain warning and the evacuation order (emergency). Therefore, the study indicates the importance of approaching residents’ affective decision-making, instead of relying on rational decision-making, to promote evacuation behavior when people are in unusual situations.
The Chao Phraya River Basin is one of the largest in Asia and is highly vulnerable to water-related disasters. Based on rainfall gauge data over 36 years (1981–2016), a frequency analysis was performed for this basin to understand and evaluate its overall flood risk; daily rainfall measurements of 119 rain gauge stations within the basin were considered. Four common probability distributions, i.e., Log-Normal (LOG), Gumbel type-I (GUM), Pearson type-III (PE3), and Log-Pearson type-III (LP3) distributions, were used to calculate the return period of rainfall at each station and at the basin-scale level. Results of each distribution were compared with the graphical Gringorten method to analyze their performance; GUM was found to be the best-fitted distribution among the four. Thereafter, design hyetographs were developed by integrating the return period of rainfall based on three adopted methods at basin and subbasin scales; each method had its pros and cons for hydrological applications. Finally, utilizing a Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation (RRI) model, we estimated the possible flood inundation extent and depth, which was outlined over the Chao Phraya River Basin using the design hyetographs with different return periods. This study can help enhance disaster resilience at industrial complexes in Thailand for sustainable growth.