Journal of Disaster Research
Online ISSN : 1883-8030
Print ISSN : 1881-2473
ISSN-L : 1881-2473
16 巻, 1 号
選択された号の論文の15件中1~15を表示しています
Special Issue on COVID-19 and Historical Pandemics
  • Sumio Shinoda, Hideaki Karaki, Haruo Hayashi
    原稿種別: Editorial
    2021 年 16 巻 1 号 p. 5
    発行日: 2021/01/30
    公開日: 2021/01/30
    ジャーナル オープンアクセス

    COVID-2019 was first identified in Wuhan, China, at the end of 2019, and from there it spread worldwide. Due to this worldwide distribution of COVID-19 cases, the WHO declared a COVID-19 pandemic. The pathogen of COVID-19, a novel corona virus, resembles SARS-CoV, the pathogen of SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome, a pandemic in 2003), so the International Committee on Taxonomy Virology named it SARS-CoV-2. However, COVID-19 is a different disease from SARS, and should be controlled to the extent possible with the effective vaccines and therapeutic medicines.

    Although one year has passed since the first appearance of the disease, the number of COVID-19 cases continues to increase, and the pandemic is now in its third large wave. It is thought that it will be difficult to eradicate the disease completely, because SARS-CoV-2 is possible to invade and live in various host animals in addition to humans.

    During this pandemic, the JDR has put together the special issue “COVID-19 and Historical Pandemics.” Because there have been many pandemics that have transformed society in various ways, the special issue includes historical pandemics in addition to COVID-19. The manuscripts in this issue include various subjects related to COVID-19, including methods of analyzing the pandemic, suggestions for countermeasures against it, methods of prevention and epidemiological reviews, among others.

    The WHO has released a large volume of pandemic information on an ongoing basis, including its “COVID-19 Weekly Epidemiological Update.” In the weekly edition of December 27, it reported the cumulative number of cases and percentages of the global total from around the world: the Americas 34,403,371 (43%), Europe 25,271 (31%), Africa 1,831,227 (2%), and the Western Pacific 1.059,751 (1%). It is notable that 74% of cumulative global total number of cases have been reported in the Americas and Europe, where most developed countries are included, whereas the numbers in Africa, which includes many developing countries, and the Western Pacific region, which includes Thailand, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Malaysia in addition to Japan and China, are 2% and 1%, respectively. This indicates that the COVID-19 pandemic is a different from previous epidemics caused by other infectious diseases.

    As the pandemic spreads, the JDR plans to edit Part 2 of this COVID-19 special issue.

  • Yoshiyuki Sugishita, Junko Kurita, Tamie Sugawara, Yasushi Ohkusa
    原稿種別: Material
    2021 年 16 巻 1 号 p. 6-11
    発行日: 2021/01/30
    公開日: 2021/01/30
    ジャーナル オープンアクセス

    In Tokyo, Japan, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases have been increasing gradually since late March 2020. This study was aimed to predict the effects of self-restraint against excursions in Tokyo before the emergency declaration of April 7, 2020. Data of symptomatic patients collected between January 14 and March 28, 2020, in Tokyo, were used to formulate a susceptible–infected–recovered (SIR) model using three age classes and estimate the basic reproduction number (R0). Based on the estimated R0, we inferred outbreak outcomes and medical burdens if self-restraint against excursions had not been enacted. Thereafter, we estimated the effects of self-restraint against excursions. The results suggested an R0 value of 2.86, with a 95% confidence interval of 2.73–2.97. It is likely that the exhaustion of medical resources could have occurred on April 28, 2020, if no self-restraint against excursions had occurred. If self-restraint against excursions had been enacted from April 6, 2020, and more than 60% of trips outside the home had been restricted voluntarily, medical care services would then have been predicted to be maintained. Our suggestion might have contributed to countermeasures against COVID-19 in Tokyo.

  • Kuniaki Miyamoto
    原稿種別: Note
    2021 年 16 巻 1 号 p. 12-15
    発行日: 2021/01/30
    公開日: 2021/01/30
    ジャーナル オープンアクセス

    The COVID-19 pandemic has been persistent. For example, the number of infections increased exponentially since mid-September in Europe. The SIR, among other models, is used to examine and detail such epidemics and the changes they bring about. However, the application of the models requires that we fix the parameters to govern the processes; it is difficult to set them up appropriately, especially during new epidemic cases such as COVID-19. If we can limit the purpose of analysis to understand current epidemic situations, then it would be better to use simple models and limit the number of parameters. The logistic model is one of such suitable models, which can reflect the basic characteristics of an epidemic to provide information on the state and tendency of the epidemic based on little information. This research uses daily cases, deaths, and recoveries to analyze the epidemic and derives interesting results. The first wave of the epidemic, which ran from March to May, almost complies with the logistic model. In the case of the second wave, since mid-June, the results show that the rising phase has characteristics similar to those of the first wave. However, the phase of decline has different characteristics. Currently, in mid-October, it is almost in a state of equilibrium. This result means that the data used in this analysis show some characteristics of the statistical population of the “epidemic field.” However, while we consider the fact that infected persons must be isolated and hence removed from the “field,” it is suggested that the number of infected and recovered persons must be significantly larger than that of the reported cases. Nevertheless, it is difficult to evaluate the statistical characteristics of the “epidemic field” using the data, as they are not the results of “random sampling.”

  • Shinya Kumagai, Tomomi Aoyama, Eri Ino, Kenji Watanabe
    原稿種別: Note
    2021 年 16 巻 1 号 p. 16-23
    発行日: 2021/01/30
    公開日: 2021/01/30
    ジャーナル オープンアクセス

    Particularly in the early stages of infection spread in spring 2020, mass infection to COVID-19 occurred mainly in densely populated areas. In order to control the spread of the disease while minimizing its impact on economic activities, response and awareness-raising were required not only at the national level but also at the prefectural level. In this study, we attempted to compare and verify the characteristics of the decision-making process and the effectiveness of the prefectural response by quantitatively evaluating the changes in the measures taken by each prefecture in Japan over time.

  • Thanapat Sontayasara, Sirawit Jariyapongpaiboon, Arnon Promjun, Napat ...
    原稿種別: Paper
    2021 年 16 巻 1 号 p. 24-30
    発行日: 2021/01/30
    公開日: 2021/01/30
    ジャーナル オープンアクセス

    In the year 2020, SARS-CoV-2, the virus behind the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, affected many lives and businesses worldwide. COVID-19, which originated in Wuhan City, China, at the end of December 2019, spread over the entire world in approximately four months. By October 2020, approximately 20 million people were infected and millions had died from this disease. Many health organizations such as the World Health Organization and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention made COVID-19 their primary focus. Many industries, especially, the tourism industry, were affected by the pandemic as many flight and hotel reservations were canceled. Thailand, a country considered one of the world’s most popular tourist destinations, suffered much losses because of this pandemic. Many events and travel bookings were canceled and/or postponed. Many people expressed their views and emotions related to this situation over social media, which is considered a powerful media for spreading news and information. In this research, the views of people who were planning to travel to Bangkok, the capital city and most popular destination in Thailand, were retrieved from Twitter for the dates between April 3 and 30, 2020, the period during which the country underwent nationwide lockdown. Sentiment analysis was performed using the support vector machine algorithm. The results showed 71.03% classification accuracy based on three sentiment classifications: positive, negative, and neutral. This study could thus provide an insight into travelers’ opinions and sentiments related to the tourism business. Based on the significant terms in each sentiment extracted, strengths and weaknesses of each tourism issue could be obtained, which could be used for making recommendations to the related tourism organizations.

  • Hideki Goromaru, Tomohiro Kokogawa, Yoshihisa Ueda, Sumiko Fukaya
    原稿種別: Paper
    2021 年 16 巻 1 号 p. 31-39
    発行日: 2021/01/30
    公開日: 2021/01/30
    ジャーナル オープンアクセス

    The Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) pandemic has significantly influenced a lot of organizations. Business Continuity Planning (BCP) should be developed within each organization; however, it is not effective and perplexes organizations. The COVID-19 pandemic will remain prevalent for a few years, and there is a possible future threat of other infectious diseases. Therefore, it is important to learn from this pandemic and apply this knowledge to future BCP. In this study, issues with COVID-19 BCP are clarified by analyzing an online discussion among willing participants. The following suggestions resulted from the analysis: 1. It is difficult to obtain reliable information when it is necessary. 2. Decisions must be made, not knowing whether governmental measures are appropriate or not. 3. Fear results in bias. 4. Responses may delay if one is too dependent upon the assistance and information from government and/or other sources. Based on these results, BCP during the pandemic is suggested to encourage resilience during the uncertain threat expected in the future.

  • Seiko Takaoka, Yasuhito Kawata, Tatsuro Kai
    原稿種別: Note
    2021 年 16 巻 1 号 p. 40-47
    発行日: 2021/01/30
    公開日: 2021/01/30
    ジャーナル オープンアクセス

    In Japan, in a society where the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is widespread, when a disaster occurs and a large number of people need to be relocated to evacuation centers, clusters of coronavirus disease may emerge; therefore, countermeasures are necessary. The purpose of this paper is to clarify the issues involved and the measures required to manage evacuation centers in the event of a disaster during the coronavirus disease pandemic. One of the researchers cooperated as an advisor in the preparation of the guidelines for the operation of evacuation centers and countermeasures against the coronavirus disease infection in the Shiga Prefecture and has participated as a lecturer in the evacuation center operation drills for the officials of the cities and towns in the prefecture since the planning stage. During the drills, hygiene products and equipment were set up; the participants were divided into two groups representing evacuees and staff and exchanged their opinions on various issues. As a result of the drills, it became clear that it is important to prepare for outbreaks of infectious diseases. Preparations include stockpiling supplies, training staff members in charge, and disseminating information to staff and residents. The importance of prioritizing the allocation of living spaces, while giving due consideration to human rights and collaborating with medical experts was also emphasized.

  • Changchun Feng, Kabilijiang Umaier, Takaaki Kato, Qiushan Li
    原稿種別: Paper
    2021 年 16 巻 1 号 p. 48-55
    発行日: 2021/01/30
    公開日: 2021/01/30
    ジャーナル オープンアクセス

    At the end of 2019, during the outbreak of COVID-19, the Chinese government and media used social media extensively to release emergency information. Once this information was released, it immediately attracted significant public attention. This study used a questionnaire survey to determine social media users’ habits during the COVID-19 outbreak. The results indicated that in the case of community closure during sudden public health events, the majority of respondents use social media to obtain information to understand the development trends of an epidemic, the government’s emergency strategy, scientific epidemic prevention knowledge, and accurate information. Based on the survey results, this study considers the value of social media for emergency information, which is both a tool and a new trend in information dissemination in the context of emergencies.

  • Eri Ino, Kenji Watanabe
    原稿種別: Note
    2021 年 16 巻 1 号 p. 56-60
    発行日: 2021/01/30
    公開日: 2021/01/30
    ジャーナル オープンアクセス

    Focusing on reconstruction of the Global Supply Chain (GSC), which has been accelerated by the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, this study considers how COVID-19 has impacted the GSC and the appropriate approach to Supply Chain Risk Management (SCRM) in the future. Due to the spread of COVID-19, manufacturing industries across the world, including those in Japan, have faced difficulties in procurement and continuation of production. Under these circumstances, the Japanese Government has implemented measures to support the supply chain. This study reviews the decentralization and complication of the GSC triggered by the changing environment around it and the support measures undertaken. Considering a more decentralized and complicated GSC in future and its SCRM, the authors will continue to examine the effectiveness of the introduction of a management system based on standardized rules in the region concerned.

  • Noriko Shimasaki, Hideaki Morikawa
    原稿種別: Review
    2021 年 16 巻 1 号 p. 61-69
    発行日: 2021/01/30
    公開日: 2021/01/30
    ジャーナル オープンアクセス

    A new infectious disease caused by a novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has spread rapidly worldwide in 2020. The COVID-19 pandemic in Japan can be viewed as an urban disaster because transmission of this respiratory disease tends to occur in densely populated areas. A scientific understanding of the pathogen itself, the cause of the disaster (infectious disease), as well as infection control measures, are important to implement robust and appropriate countermeasures. This review discribes the features, especially the modes of transmission, of COVID-19 and the principles by which infection control is possible using one of the most effective infection control measures – personal protective equipment (PPE). Because COVID-19 is often transmitted to others by asymptomatic individuals through droplets, even those who are unaware of their infection should wear masks to prevent the spread of droplets that may contain the virus and effectively control the spread of disease. However, given the worldwide competition for masks and the urgent requirement of effective controls, it is necessary to conduct further research to establish a system that can supply adequate numbers of masks to regions where many people are infected in the country, with no shortage of masks, in order to make the country more resilient to disasters caused by infectious diseases in the future.

  • Nourhan H. El-Subbagh, Rana Rabie, Aya A. Mahfouz, Khaled M. Aboelsuod ...
    原稿種別: Review
    2021 年 16 巻 1 号 p. 70-83
    発行日: 2021/01/30
    公開日: 2021/01/30
    ジャーナル オープンアクセス

    In the late of 2019, unfamiliar cases of pneumonia were announced in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China that resulted in high mortality rates of 2%. Shortly, these cases were reported to be brought about by a novel type of coronaviruses named as novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The disease caused by this novel virus is designated as coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19). Instantly afterwards, this disease exhibited an extreme spreading rate and the infection has geographically shifted to affect the whole world including the Middle East countries involving Egypt. Thus, it is not surprising that a lot of reports and literature have been directed to provide information and describe the clinical features of this pandemic. In this report, we describe in details the characteristic features of COVID-19 pandemic with attention to the management and control in Egypt. Characters of the virus, mode of transmission, pathogenesis, clinical symptoms, diagnosis, treatment, and prevention are fully described.

  • Noriko Nakanishi, Yoshio Iijima
    原稿種別: Survey Report
    2021 年 16 巻 1 号 p. 84-87
    発行日: 2021/01/30
    公開日: 2021/01/30
    ジャーナル オープンアクセス

    The outbreak of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, occurred in Wuhan, China in December 2019 and quickly spread to both the developed and developing countries. The virus will continue to infect humans and animals symptomatically or asymptomatically, and humans will be expected to coexist with SARS-CoV-2 by preventing infections and its spread. In this paper, we report on the occurrence of the COVID-19 epidemic in Japan, including the city of Kobe.

  • Vignesh K. S., Padma Venkatasubramanian
    原稿種別: Review
    2021 年 16 巻 1 号 p. 88-96
    発行日: 2021/01/30
    公開日: 2021/01/30
    ジャーナル オープンアクセス

    Recent studies have indicated that certain atmospheric pollutants had significantly reduced in several countries during the lockdown period imposed to curb the spread of SARS-CoV-2-Virus. The Government of India declared the first lockdown from the end of March 2020, which continued till June 2020 in most Indian states. The present study compares the air quality indicators nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), carbon monoxide (CO), and ozone (O3) across India, during the months of March–August 2020 and the same period in 2019. The application of satellite information from NASA – Ozone Monitoring Instrument and Atmospheric Infrared Sounder were used to compare the quantum of air pollutants. The temporal variation of the air pollutants was studied using satellite imagery and geo-statistics on a monthly, national average basis, to assess the overall impact of the lockdown. NO2, SO2, and O3 showed some level of reduction during the period of study in 2020 when compared to 2019, whereas CO levels had gone up in 2020. NO2, a pollutant mainly arising from motor vehicle combustion, reduced by 3.98–12.1% in 2020 as compared to the same study period in 2019 and in April 2020, when there was a complete lockdown, it had dropped maximally (by 12.1%). The reduction in SO2 levels in 2020 ranged from around 0.5–9% but only during April–June 2020, whereas there was an increase in March, July, and August 2020 when compared to 2019. Despite a reduction in NO2, the O3 levels (which are dependent on NO2 levels) saw an increase in the atmosphere during March–May 2020 by 1.9–5%, and decreased during June–August 2020. The CO levels in the atmosphere did not reduce during lockdown; instead, it peaked in March, April, and May 2020, when compared to 2019, possibly due to incomplete combustion of materials containing carbon materials like wood, plastics, etc. This study demonstrates that it is possible to rapidly reduce atmospheric pollution in India. However, since the level of certain pollutants like O3 are dependent on others like NO2, reducing the atmospheric pollution globally is a sustained and concerted effort by all concerned.

  • Sumio Shinoda
    原稿種別: Review
    2021 年 16 巻 1 号 p. 97-109
    発行日: 2021/01/30
    公開日: 2021/01/30
    ジャーナル オープンアクセス

    COVID-19 is a newly discovered infectious disease caused by the novel coronavirus. The COVID-19 pandemic started at the end of December 2019 in Wuhan, China and spread rapidly across the world, especially in North and South America or Europe. The number of infected cases in the developed countries in North America and Europe or South America is extremely high, whereas its number in the developing countries of Africa or Southeast Asia is not so high; therefore, the COVID-19 is different from the usual infectious disease outbreaks. This article introduces the epidemiology of COVID-19, comparing with other historical infectious disease outbreaks.

  • Thandavarayan Ramamurthy, Amit Ghosh
    原稿種別: Review
    2021 年 16 巻 1 号 p. 110-117
    発行日: 2021/01/30
    公開日: 2021/01/30
    ジャーナル オープンアクセス

    Cholera affects about three million people annually and kills several thousands. Since 1817 seven cholera pandemics have been described. While the nature of the strains responsible for the first four pandemics are not known, the fifth and sixth pandemics are associated with Vibrio cholerae O1 classical biotype. In the 1960s, V. cholerae El Tor replaced classical strains worldwide, ushering in the seventh pandemic. El Tor cholera is typified with less severe diarrhea, a lower case fatality rate and a higher percentage of asymptomatic cases. Historically, the Indian subcontinent was thought to be the homeland where cholera originated and has been implicated in spreading of the disease. Cholera broke out in Africa and now seems to be continuous and recurrent, leading to high morbidity and mortality in some countries. Current conflicts in the Middle East have been associated with the breakdown of healthcare systems and the emergence of cholera there in a big way. Several discoveries in the past two centuries helped us to understand and manage the disease. Some of the greatest inventions such as rehydration therapy have saved the lives of countless people afflicted with cholera. Whole genome sequencing of V. cholerae and the modern molecular epidemiology of cholera have led to advancements in understanding of the disease and also how the organism has persisted and re-emerged in new areas during the seventh pandemic. Currently, water, sanitation, and hygiene along with the new generation oral cholera vaccines are considered as important interventions and beneficial public health tools in cholera endemic countries and in areas at risk for outbreaks. This review highlights the pandemics that lead to important discoveries and also the new molecular approach in understanding the epidemiology of cholera.

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