Objectives: From FY2024, Japan’s Specific Health Guidance system introduced a new outcome-based assessment, allowing participants to complete the program upon achieving a reduction of at least 2 cm in abdominal circumference and at least 2 kg in body weight, regardless of the intervention volume. This study examined whether there were differences in the incidence of short-term and medium/long-term health outcomes among individuals who achieved these targets, those who did not, and those who dropped out of Specific Health Guidance. Methods: This study utilized medical claims data and specific health check-up and guidance data from FY2012 to FY2022 across 15 municipalities participating in the LIFE Study. Participants were classified into achievement, non-achievement, and dropout groups based on whether they achieved ≥2 cm abdominal circumference and ≥2 kg weight reduction after Specific Health Guidance. Short-term outcomes were defined as the incidence of hypertension, diabetes, and dyslipidemia, while medium/long-term outcomes were defined as ischemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were generated, and log-rank tests were used to assess inter-group differences. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were applied to estimate hazard ratios (HRs), adjusting potential confounders. Additionally, sensitivity analyses were conducted, accounting for municipal clustering and adjusting standard errors. Results: The incidence of short-term outcomes was 88 (22.8%) in the achievement group, 423 (36.3%) in the non-achievement group, and 647 (30.3%) in the dropout group. The incidence of medium/long-term outcomes was 23 (6.0%), 84 (7.2%), and 116 (5.4%), respectively. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed significant differences in short-term outcomes. Using the achievement group as the reference, the HRs for short-term outcomes were 1.50 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.19–1.89) in the non-achievement group and 1.23 (95% CI: 0.98–1.54) in the dropout group. For medium/long-term outcomes, the HRs were 0.98 (95% CI: 0.62–1.57) in the non-achievement group and 0.77 (95% CI:0.49–1.21) in the dropout group. Sensitivity analysis, accounting for municipal clustering, showed a significant difference in the short-term outcome for the non-achievement group (HR: 1.50, 95% CI: 1.29–1.75, p < 0.001), but no significant difference in medium/long-term outcomes. Conclusion: For short-term outcomes, only the non-achievement group had a significantly higher risk than the achievement group, even after accounting for municipal clustering in the sensitivity analysis. In contrast, no significant differences were observed for medium/long-term outcomes. Given the prolonged progression of atherosclerotic diseases, it is important to continue undergoing Specific Health Check-ups and maintaining weight reduction through ongoing Specific Health Guidance.
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