Recent theoretical and empirical analyses have developed Kaldor's concept of 'cumulative causation'. They formalise two-way routes between labour productivity growth and demand growth: 'demand regime' and 'productivity regime'. However, these studies are insufficient in terms of formulating demand regime, which is the route from labour productivity growth and demand growth. Their limitation is that capital accumulation is abstracted. Since the demand regime shows the middle- and long-term relationship between labour productivity growth and demand growth, it is necessary to incorporate capital accumulation, which is one of the factors of long-term economic growth as well as technological change. In this paper, we formulate the demand regime by explicitly taking capital accumulation into account. Using a cumulative causation model with two sectors producing consumer goods and investment goods respectively, we examine how two structural changes affect cumulative causation. The first is a structural change on the technological side: remarkable labour productivity growth in information-technology-related (IT-related) industries owing to rapid technological progress. The second is a structural change on the final demand side: an increase in capital inflow and outflow owing to international capital flow. These structural changes create a shift in the productivity regime and the demand regime. According to our analysis, the growth in output and productivity of investment goods is influenced by three factors: the effects of capital accumulation, changes in relative prices, and structural change in final demand. In particular, we examine how foreign capital inflow relates to these three factors. We explain the following points relevant to the effect of international capital flow on cumulative causation. The first is expansion of international economic disparity due to international capital flow. Assuming all other conditions are equal for both the advanced countries and the developing countries, if the external fund dependence rate of the private business sector in developed countries is larger than it is in developing countries, the international capital flow increases the economic disparity between them. This is one backwash effect that Myrdal mentioned with regard to capital movement. The second is economic fluctuation amplified by volatility of foreign capital. This volatility in our model, fluctuation of the external fund dependence rates, causes fluctuation in the demand structure parameter, if all other parameters are assumed to be constant. In the upward phase of this parameter, the demand structure change effect is positive. Therefore, an increase of foreign capital inflow causes acceleration of the demand growth for investment goods. Thus, fluctuation in the quantity of production of investment goods is amplified by increase and decrease in foreign capital inflow. The third is complementarity of capital liberalization policy and export promotion policy. The ratio of the net export of investment goods to the private business investment and the external fund dependence rate in the private business sector are complementary in relation to the demand structure parameter. When these two parameters rise simultaneously, these effects are strengthened further. Paraphrasing this complementarity in the context of the development policy of developing countries, it means that the economic growth rate increases greatly when the capital liberalization policy and the export-oriented industrialization policy focusing on machinery production are simultaneously implemented.
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