Japanese Journal of Risk Analysis
Online ISSN : 2185-4548
Print ISSN : 0915-5465
ISSN-L : 0915-5465
Volume 19, Issue 4
Displaying 1-10 of 10 articles from this issue
  • Norifumi TSUJIKAWA, Shoji TSUCHIDA, Fumiyo KOIKE, Toshihiko TANIGAKI, ...
    2009 Volume 19 Issue 4 Pages 4_11-4_19
    Published: 2009
    Released on J-STAGE: November 01, 2011
    JOURNAL FREE ACCESS
    Previous studies about presentation of risk messages have focused on the effects of recipients' attitude change. However, when we consider the influence social reality can have on risk perception and the necessity to communicate to the low-concern group, research into the communication process within the recipient group is also necessary. The purpose of this study was to examine information transmission behavior (intention of transmitting and transmission contents) of citizens after the risk messages were presented. For this study, the theme of risk message was nuclear power. Results showed that the intention of transmitting was high, to the degree that participants' attitudes were predictable. In addition, male participants' intention of transmitting was high to the degree of being predictable. However, female participants did not display any influence of predictable attitude. As for transmission contents, it was revealed that when participants watched a movie about shortage energy problems, participants tended to transmit information that promote nuclear power.
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  • INOUE Tomoya, Shigeki MASUNAGA, Hideo OHTANI
    2009 Volume 19 Issue 4 Pages 4_21-4_31
    Published: 2009
    Released on J-STAGE: November 01, 2011
    JOURNAL FREE ACCESS
    In present study, we focused on risk trade-off between health and fire risk of Decabromodiphenyl ether (DecaBDE), a well known brominated flame retardant, used in the manufacturing of television sets. We tried to quantify and compare these risks. Firstly, we conducted cost benefit analysis considering human health impacts of DecaBDE use and for both economic and health damage by TV fires. Considering five scenarios, the results suggest that net benefits of DecaBDE use were positive. Secondly, we attempted to re-evaluate the Value of a Statistical Life (VSL) by using available official VSL of five EU countries. All the scenarios yielded net positive results, indicating that the benefits were greater than the costs. Additionally, we tryed to re-evaluate the net benefits of DecaBDE use by replacing the rate of TV fires with using more stringent data. Although it diminished fire rate by 75%, under the most realistic two scenarios, results showed positive net benefits of DecaBDE use. Finally, we compared net benefits by the use of DecaBDE with those of alternative BFRs and bromine-free flame retardants. The results of the latters revealed that use of DecaBDE alternatives increased the costs considerably compared to DecaBDE.
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  • : A Case Study Using Draw-a-picture Technique
    Nao SATO, Iyuki TAKASAKI, Satoshi MURAO, Toshiko KIKKAWA, Kazuhisa TAK ...
    2009 Volume 19 Issue 4 Pages 4_33-4_41
    Published: 2009
    Released on J-STAGE: November 01, 2011
    JOURNAL FREE ACCESS
    The purpose of this study was to examine risk perceptions of artisanal/small-scale miners in the Philippines. We analyzed a survey data using questionnaire technique and drawing picture technique. The results of the questionnaire technique indicated that artisanal/small-scale miners underestimated the risk of artisanal/small-scale mining. However, most of the artisanal/small-scale miners drew cave-ins and collapse of drift, headings or stopes as what they feel dangerous. The complementary use of the drawing picture technique has enabled us to examine risk perceptions of artisanal/small-scale miners from different perspectives. Based on this experience, the possibility of using drawing picture technique in the risk research was discussed.
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  • Comparisons between chemists, medical scientists and the Public
    Yayoi KITO
    2009 Volume 19 Issue 4 Pages 4_43-4_53
    Published: 2009
    Released on J-STAGE: November 01, 2011
    JOURNAL FREE ACCESS
    A number of studies have been conducted on perception of risk to discuss how to contribute to effective risk communication. However, analysis of attitudes toward risk and their structure is also important in communication or policy-making about risk. The purpose of this paper is to examine attitudes toward food-related risks and the structure of attitudes, which is composed of causal relationships among attitudes toward risk, perceived risk and other factors that influence attitudes. Furthermore this study discusses expert-lay similarities and differences in attitudes and the structure. It conducts a survey using a questionnaire from laypeople, chemists and medical scientists and then analyzes the data using covariance structure analysis.
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  • Reiko NAKAJIMA, Hirotada HIROSE
    2009 Volume 19 Issue 4 Pages 4_55-4_62
    Published: 2009
    Released on J-STAGE: November 01, 2011
    JOURNAL FREE ACCESS
    The present study examines the inflicting force of natural disasters on the victim's mental health. Two big earthquake stricken areas survey results (the three waves panel study among the victims of the Chuetsu Earthquake in 2004 and the two waves study of the victims of the Hanshin Earthquake in 1995) are compared with the nationwide sample survey results (N=1200). Comparing the national sample and the earthquake victims, we can draw the following conclusions; (1) Sleepless, depressive state and impatient are notable characteristics immediately after the earthquake. (2) Women claim more mental disorder than men in everyday life, but increments of their complained disorders are less than those of men after the earthquake occurred. (3) Elder people aged 70 or older suffer less mental disorders than younger ones, but the recovery process of the former is slower than that of the latter.
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  • — Calculation of Fair Prices in Life Settlement System
    Hideya KUBO
    2009 Volume 19 Issue 4 Pages 4_63-4_70
    Published: 2009
    Released on J-STAGE: November 01, 2011
    JOURNAL FREE ACCESS
    In the “life settlements market” where life insurance products are distributed, prices are determined by market forces, the fairness of which is open to question. The objectives of this paper is presenting an exchange model between morality risk and capital market risk to clarify the price structure and calculate fair prices of life insurance products.
    Prices of insurance products are determined in consideration of both actuarial statistics in the insurance market and investment information in the capital market. In order to equalize the price calculation basis in both markets, the calculation uses not a decision theoretic approach adding a safety factor to the experienced mortality rate in actuarial statistics but a stochastic approach using Monte Carlo simulation. The calculation result shows that current market prices are disadvantageous to policyholders and life settlement companies gain excessive profits, indicating a possibility to provide higher returns to policyholders when interest rates are low.
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  • Toru TAKAI, Atsuo KISHIMOTO
    2009 Volume 19 Issue 4 Pages 4_71-4_82
    Published: 2009
    Released on J-STAGE: November 01, 2011
    JOURNAL FREE ACCESS
    The purpose of this study is to investigate the extent of influences of various factors on the public acceptance of nanotechnology products. In the existing studies that employ “affect heuristic model”, the acceptance of new technologies including nanotechnology is assumed to be determined by risk perception, benefit perception and affect. In order to clarify the factors determining the public acceptance of nanotechnology products, we modify the affect heuristic model by adding factors such as social trust, previous knowledge and values, and then, apply it to the data collected from our internet survey (N=647). Path analysis is utilized to test the model. The results of our study suggest that the affect heuristic model is basically applicable in explaining the acceptance. Social trust and previous knowledge are also found to play important roles in determining the acceptance of nanotechnology products.
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