By employing a search theory, we had analyzed influence on matching between demander and supplier of logs by the changes in the trend of housing starts.
Reflecting the number of housing starts to be increased in 1950's, resources of many forest in Japan had been decreased rapidly by unreasonable disafforestation. The strong demand of logs could not be met enough, even if between demander and supplier of logs spent time for trying to match together. Import of logs were opened by the Japanese government, because of the strong demand not to be met by domestic short supply. Against import of logs to be opened completely, we presume the relationship between forestry and industry of housing would keep as before. Later the number of housing starts were decreased, especially by the depression from 1990 and the graying of recent society in Japan. According to the number of housing starts decreased, the lumber demander left from the market of logs in Japan. Thus most of the relationships between demander and supplier of logs had been cut for the lumber demander leaving from the market of logs. Thereby, even if large capacity to gather lumber was necessary, the capacity of lumber supplier would be significantly dropping because of not using the capacity for a long time. The lumber demander prefers to trade with a foreign country for a large selection of lumber and logs being available. On the other hand, domestic forestry as the log supplier has declined.
For the world economic booms from mid-2000, the demand of lumber and logs became stronger than before. Though the domestic demand of lumber increased in Japan by higher price of import goods, Japanese supplier could not gather domestic lumber. Japanese government carried out some policies towards that situation. By these policies, Japanese supplier could gather domestic logs. But a self‐sufficiency rate of logs in Japan did not improve even though demander of wood being able to make matching to some part of supplier of logs. It is because most of demander of logs didn't keep selecting Japanese lumber and logs for being unable to secure both the quantity of the domestic lumber required in the long term and the quality in these policies.
Thus the existence of the intermediary who grasps the situation on the demand side and the supply side of the logs together, and can perform matching well is necessary. We think it is necessary that Japanese government promotes human resource development of the intermediary who grasps the situation on the demand side and the supply side of the logs together, and can perform matching well.
抄録全体を表示