The purpose of this paper is to identify a structure of probabilistic misconception. Many people mistakenly assert that the Law of Large Numbers might be applied to small samples as well. Traditionally, in terms of misconceptions, this problematic situation is investigated through the Law of Small Numbers. This paper gives a new interpretation to this phenomenon from the perspective of commognitive conflicts. Consequently, it is shown that the Law of Small Numbers results from two metarules (namely the compensating rule and the generalizing one).

　　In this paper, a Triangle of Discourse (Figure 1) is constructed and used as a commognitivist framework for interpreting discourses. The triangle of discourse is roughly a commognized version of semiotic triangles on meaning. Then, the simplest commognitive conflicts are interpreted by two Triangles because commognitive conflicts arise between at least two discourses. Thus, a Dual Triangle of Commognitive Conflict (Figure 2) is constructed and used as a framework for interpreting commognitive conflicts. S_T, R_T, and M_T are a learned discourse in a context (the subindex T indicates teachers), whereas S_L, R_L, and M_L are a learners’ discourse in the context (the subindex L indicates learners).

　　Two types of misconceptions are distinguishable within the Law of Small Numbers when we take a detailed look at it. In the first type (LSN 1), “population / probability” as signifier is associated with “small sample” as realization. On the contrary, in the second type of misconception distinguishable within the Law of Small Numbers (LSN 2), “small sample” as signifier is associated with “population / probability” as realization. These two types of the Law of Small Numbers could be described by means of the dual triangles of commognitive conflict, as shown in Table 1. That is, the compensating and the generalizing rules are causes for the law of small number. The compensating rule is a metarule of routine procedure that we must compensate objects. The generalizing rule is a metarule of routine procedure that we must generalize objects. In learning probability, students should learn the new metarule, the swamping rule, which means that we must swamp objects.

Figure 1: Triangle of discourse

Figure 2: Dual triangles of commognitive conflict

Table 1: The two types of the Law of Small Numbers

LSN 1

S_T R_T M_T

Population / Probability Large Sample Swamping Rule

S_L R_L M_L

Population / Probability Small Sample Compensating Rule

LSN 2

S_T R_T M_T

Large Sample Population / Probability Swamping Rule

S_L R_L M_L

Small Sample Population / Probability Generalizing Rule

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　本稿では，まず，読解方略の定義とその効果に関する知見を整理した。その上で，読解方略の指導実践および読解方略指導の研究について，国内外の現状をまとめた。国内の研究においては，読解方略指導に関する研究自体が少ないこと，中でも客観的な効果の測定を行った実践研究があまりなされていないことが大きな課題であると言えた。また，学校現場での指導の実態について見てみると，有効性が指摘される方略の一部はよく指導されているものの，指導が不足している方略もあることや，明示的な方略指導が行われにくいことが示唆された。最後に，読解方略指導における新たな課題として，マルチメディア題材の読解や批判的読解における方略の検討とその指導を取り上げた。

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This study explores the status of democratic citizens or demos on the Saitama Times (ST), a local newspaper published in Honjo Town, Saitama Prefecture, Japan, in the early post-World War II period. The paper was published soon after a monumental town assembly with a mass of townspeople, which resolved that all violence should be expelled from the town, following a national press the Asahi Shimbun’s scandalous reports which disclosed that yakuza-related members hijacked town politics. Known as the Honjo Case of 1948, the Case was long recognized as a herald of new, democratic Japan. However, recent researches suggest that both the Asahi’s press campaign and the town assembly were first of all enabled by strong supports from the American Occupation Forces. Understanding that the ST fulfilled interesting democratic functions in the momentum of a democratic movement, this critical study investigates their rhetoric, exploring democratic ideals and types of citizenship the newspaper tried to instill into their readers. In so doing, the study first learns ideas of democracy and demos from contemporary political theorists. Second, the study reviews the Honjo Case and the ST. Third, the study argues that the idea of demos was well demonstrated on the ST, which, unlike the major national presses around this time, aimed at serving unique pedagogical and political functions. By these discussions, it suggests potential strategies with which democratic citizenship can raise and articulate itself with the larger political communities.

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