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経済の持続可能性特集号に当たって

浅子和美

フィナンシャル・レビュー
2022年 150 巻 1-18
発行日: 2022年
公開日: 2023/03/10

DOI https://doi.org/10.57520/prifr.150.0_1

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都道府県別景気動向の比較

── 景気動向指数を用いた推計 ──

松嶋慶祐, 三井栄

地域学研究
2021年 51 巻 2 号 197-210
発行日: 2021年
公開日: 2022/05/27

DOI https://doi.org/10.2457/srs.51.197

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　　In order to develop comprehensive regional revitalization measures, it is essential to accurately grasp regional economic trends early.　In addition, economic measures can be implemented in line with the actual situation of the regional economy by accurately grasping economic conditions that differ by region, and strength of an economic wave.
　　Presently, Indexes of Business Conditions （Composite Index:CI） are used as a method for grasping regional economic trends, and making economic judgments based on the regional block and prefectural unit indices.
　　On the other hand, 33 prefectures of Japan do not have CI.　A CI is created by combining a plurality of economic indicators, so indicator levels and change rates among prefectures cannot be compared because the CI of each prefecture may be composed of different economic indicators.
　　Therefore, we tried to create a CI that can be used to compare economic trends among prefectures.　By introducing a method to reflect differences in the industrial structure of prefectures based on indicators common to all prefectures, we aimed to determine the regional economic trends more accurately.
　　CI can measure the turning point of a business cycle, and has a high correlation with Short-term Economic Surveys of Principal Enterprises in Japan and are suitable for obtaining the confidence of prefectures.
　　Furthermore, factors related to the economic expansion and recession, and their transmission route can be inferred from the prefectural CI and degree of contribution of each series.
JEL Classifications:E32, P25, P48

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浅子和美
・飯塚信夫・宮川努編著, 『世界同時不況と景気循環分析』, 東京大学出版会, 2011年

鹿野達史

生活経済学研究
2012年 35 巻 154-156
発行日: 2012/03/31
公開日: 2016/11/30

DOI https://doi.org/10.18961/seikatsukeizaigaku.35.0_154

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住宅研究者のための経済学入門

大竹文雄

都市住宅学
1996年 1996 巻 13 号 28-30
発行日: 1996/03/31
公開日: 2012/08/01

DOI https://doi.org/10.11531/uhs1993.1996.13_28

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舳倉島のバードウォッチャーの実態分析

敷田麻実

日本観光学会誌
1996年 29 巻 55-65
発行日: 1996/10/31
公開日: 2023/06/23

DOI https://doi.org/10.51059/nihonkanko.29.0_55

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Ecotourism has been considered as a new type of tourism that has attracted interest from both the conservation sector and the tourism sector. It is widely accepted that ecotourism is a substantial initiative which attempts sustainable use of the environment in destination areas. Based on that, ecotourism has provoked a great deal of argument in Japan as well as in the rest of the world since the mid 1980s. However, there have only been a few attempts made so far to study the practical features of ecotourists in Japan. This paper is about an investigation of bird watchers at Hegurajima off Noto Peninsula, and is intended as a case study of nature oriented tourism. Hegurajima is a small island, famous as one of the best places for bird watching in Japan. Over 800 bird watchers visited the island in 1994. This survey was carried out in 1994 and 1995, and questionnaires were distributed to all bird wachers coming to the island. The results present various useful indications for both the environmental conservation and future visitor management of the island.
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社会資本ストックの生産力効果

──RBCモデルによる分析──

枝川眞弓

地域学研究
2015年 45 巻 2 号 201-212
発行日: 2015年
公開日: 2016/02/25

DOI https://doi.org/10.2457/srs.45.201

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　　We should take into account various factors when deciding the level to which social capital is to be strengthened—including declining population, aging of society, falling birthrates and the need to rebuild the nation’s state coffers.　On an individual project level, whether or not each project is necessary should be decided by analyzing its cost-benefit ratio.　On a regional or national level, policymakers should recognize the reality concerning the stock of social capital.　Based on the recognition, they should study what extent the current stock should be raised in the future.
　　In this paper, I tried to grasp the situation of social capital （categorized into four types） based on Japan’s Social Capital 2012, published by the Cabinet Office.　Using data pooled between 1990 and 2009, region-by-region and industry-by-industry productivity effects of social capital stock were estimated.　Next, a simulation based on the Real Business Cycle （RBC） model was conducted, using a production function that reflects the productivity effects of social capital stock.　The simulation was designed to confirm the possible percentage change in each variable when the ratio of government spending （public investment） against gross domestic product （GDP） rises by 1%.
　　What was found in the region-by-region and industry-by-industry survey is that regarding mining, manufacturing and service industries operating in urban areas, productivity effects were high at living-support infrastructure facilities （publicly-owned houses for rent, water-supply services, waste-disposal facilities, city parks and education facilities） and land-protection facilities （flood control, soil conservation and coastal facilities）.　The simulation using the RBC model led to a finding that when productivity effects of social capital exist, consumption will possibly rise, aided by positive income effects.
JEL Classification:E22, E23, H54
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産業別利潤率の変動要因

伊藤由樹子

産業連関
2006年 14 巻 3 号 50-57
発行日: 2006/10/30
公開日: 2015/03/24

DOI https://doi.org/10.11107/papaios.14.50

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資本収益率の向上は，経済成長にとって重要な課題である．グローバル化が進んだ世界では，国際競争力の強化を目指すためにも不可欠だ．「失われた10年」と呼ばれる時期，日本産業の収益率は低迷した．80年代と比べて90年代に低下した理由は何か．収益率変動の度合いは産業ごとに異なるが，それは，価格，賃金，労働生産性，中間投入の効率などいずれの要因によるのか．ここでは，産業連関表の均衡価格モデルを応用して，その要因を追究する．
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災害脆弱地区における都市整備促進施策とその効果に関する研究

上田孝行, 高木朗義

土木学会論文集
2002年 2002 巻 702 号 39-50
発行日: 2002/04/20
公開日: 2010/08/24

DOI https://doi.org/10.2208/jscej.2002.702_39

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大都市圏には, 災害に対して非常に脆弱な地区が存在している. それらの地区は都心部に在り, 潜在的には都市開発による高い収益が期待できるにもかかわらず, 個々の区画は建物への建替えが依然として進まず, 都市防災上は大きな問題の一つとなっている. 本稿は経済動学の分野で開発されてきた投資タイミングモデルを発展させて, 災害脆弱地区の開発が進行しないメカニズムを描写するモデルを提示し, それに基づいて災害脆弱地区の都市整備を促進する施策の効果を分析する. また, 便益帰着構成表アプローチを用いて, 社会的純便益が建物利用者の享受する防災機能の向上から区画所有者が負担する建設費用と営業費用を差し引いたものであり, 開発タイミングが便益の大きさを規定することを示す.
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平成14年度生活経済学会研究大会記事

朝日譲治

生活経済学研究
2003年 18 巻 229-
発行日: 2003/03/30
公開日: 2016/11/30

DOI https://doi.org/10.18961/seikatsukeizaigaku.18.0_229

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確率的景気指標による長崎地域経済の研究 : 長崎経済の定型化された事実の検証

吉岡真史

地域学研究
2010年 40 巻 3 号 795-807
発行日: 2010年
公開日: 2011/01/18

DOI https://doi.org/10.2457/srs.40.795

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Current regional studies in business indicators focus mainly on the estimation of an indicator itself to reveal regional business cycle, and at best, comparison with a national indicator or those of nearby regions. This paper employs a business indicator from a different point of view to verify some stylized facts of regional economy with statistical methodologies. The paper at first estimates a stochastic regional business indicator of Stock-Watson type in Nagasaki based on existing methodology, and has succeeded in estimation. This indicator is not utilized only to reveal business cycle but also to verify some stylized facts in the region, such as weak recession in 2001 that Nagasaki Tankan unveils, and moreover, whether shipbuilding and sightseeing industries lead Nagasaki economy or not, employing Granger causality analysis.
For estimating a regional business indicator in Nagasaki, this paper employs the large industrial power consumption as a proxy for the production; the effective job offer rate for the labor condition; the sales value at department stores deflated by the consumer price index to volume for the consumption; and, the index of real wage for the income. These proxies are represented in a state space model for estimating the only and latent business indicator, which is named Nagasaki Regional Business Indicator (NRBI) in the paper. The state space model has been solved by the Kalman filter to obtain NRBI.
NRBI indicates very clear business cycle in Nagasaki compared with all-Japan business cycle indicator which is calculated by the Cabinet Office of the Government of Japan and named Composite Index (CI). NRBI reveals declining tendency and very weak recession in 2001, which strongly supports results of Nagasaki Tankan. Moreover, utilizing NRBI to unveil Nagasaki business cycle, Granger causality analysis is adopted among NRBI, CI, order backlog of the shipbuilding industry and the number of visitors to Glover Garden that is a proxy for sightseeing. The results suggest that all-Japan CI proceeds NRBI and also that the shipbuilding industry leads Nagasaki regional business at one percent level of the statistical significance, while the relationship between the number of Glover Garden visitors and NRBI is ambiguous.
After estimating NRBI and analyzing Nagasaki economy, the paper concludes briefly and points out three issues remaining. The first is what exists on the background for the Nagasaki's weak recession in 2001. It might be required to take another approach including episode analysis. From a viewpoint of business cycle, the second should be the estimation based on more advanced methodology. The third is to explore another way to utilize NRBI. Finally, the paper stresses widening utilization of regional business indicators, which may promote development of indicator estimation.

JEL Classification: C32, C43, E32, R10, R11, R15
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我が国における社会資本の限界生産性と社会資本ストックの将来予測

木村康博, 竹内佐和子, 吉田恒昭

建設マネジメント研究論文集
1999年 7 巻 103-110
発行日: 1999/11/30
公開日: 2010/08/24

DOI https://doi.org/10.2208/procm.7.103

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我が国は戦後、急速に社会資本を蓄積させてきたが、今後は様々な事情から社会資本整備の財源は非常に限られているといわれている。しかしながら、現在のところデータに裏付けられた現状把握及び将来予測の例は乏しい。本研究では、社会資本整備をフローではなくストック形成として捉え、その地域間、分野間、及び時系列の配分過程を明らかにした。そして、社会資本を生産活動を行うための一要素であると仮定し、社会資本の生産力効果の推移を分析した。その結果、1970年以降、その数値は低下傾向にあることが示された。また、行政投資額に占める用地費や維持補修費、更新費等の割合を明らかにした上で、今後の財政状況により我が国が如何なるストック水準を確保しうるか将来予測を行った結果、我が国が2025年度以降に新たな社会資本ストックを形成することは非常に困難となることが示された。
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新型コロナウイルス感染拡大による地域経済影響度分析

── 都道府県別経済動向の比較 ──

松嶋慶祐, 三井栄

地域学研究
2022年 52 巻 1 号 41-60
発行日: 2022年
公開日: 2022/10/22

DOI https://doi.org/10.2457/srs.52.41

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　　The spread of COVID-19 has had a huge impact on the Japanese economy.　The Cabinet Office’s Business Trends Index （CI） has declined significantly since March 2020, close to the level in March 2009.　In addition, since the number of infected people in each prefecture varies greatly, and the degree of restrictions on economic activities, such as the declaration of a state of emergency being issued and lifted accordingly, the impact of the spread of infection on the economy varies depending on the region and prefecture.
　　Previous studies on Covid-19’s impact on economic trends do not capture the overall economic situation and have not been compared and verified at the prefectural level.　On the other hand, understanding the economic impact of various factors in the region, including the spread of coronavirus infections, is essential for examining measures that contribute to economic recovery, and the significance of quantitative analysis of the degree of economic fluctuations and their factors is significant.
　　In this study, we analyzed the impact of the spread of COVID-19 on the local economy, regional differences, and their factors using “prefectural CI” developed by Matsushima and Mitsui.　In addition, to more accurately capture the effects of the spread of coronal infection, we also improved the prefectural CI.　The prefectural CI is an index that can compare economic trends among all prefectures.　It covers the main fields for analyzing economic trends while using indicators common to prefectures, and aims to grasp regional economic trends more accurately than current indicators.
JEL Classifications:E32, R11, R15

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資産選択理論に基づく土地所有者の建設投資の意思決定に関する研究

都市部における土地利用形態別面積比率の推定

田代敬大, 樗木武

都市計画論文集
1992年 27 巻 757-762
発行日: 1992/10/25
公開日: 2019/12/01

DOI https://doi.org/10.11361/journalcpij.27.757

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THE PURPOSE OF THIS PAPER IS TO APPLY THE 2-PARAMETER PORTFOLIO THEORY TO ANALYSIS OF THE URBAN LAND USE. RESULTS ARE INDICATED AS FOLLOWS. 1) USING LANDOWNER'S LAND USE AREA RATIOS AS INVESTMENT WEIGHTS. THE PORTFOLIO SELECTION THEORY IS APPLICABLE TO SPATIAL ANALYSIS IN THE URBAN DISTRICT. 2)WHEN LANDOWNER EXPECTS HIS OWN LAND PRICE, THE RISK EXPECTATION CONDITION AS WELL AS THE RETURN EXPECTATION CONDITION IS IMPORTANT. 3)IN GENERAL, HOUSING INVESTMENT WITH LARGER RISK HAS LARGER EXPECTED RETURN.

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物流の視点からの運輸社会資本形成における都道府県別特性分析

髙橋宏直, 山本幸司

運輸政策研究
2001年 3 巻 4 号 021-030
発行日: 2001/01/31
公開日: 2019/05/31

DOI https://doi.org/10.24639/tpsr.TPSR_3R_17

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社会資本形成に対する評価については様々な議論がある．また，一方で各プロジェクトに対する費用効果分析手法を始めとして多くの評価手法の開発が進められており，多様な評価の要請に対して大きく寄与している．また，これらの手法は近年においてさらに改良が進められている．しかしながら，特定部門の社会資本について，その資本形成による有効性等の特性を地域的に相対比較評価しようとした場合，そのための具体的な手段は明確ではない．
本研究では，物流という視点に特化して運輸社会資本形成における地域間の特性について相対的比較評価を試みた．具体的には，道路，港湾，航空部門を対象として，それぞれの物流特性を代表する指標との関連性を都道府県別に相対的比較評価に活用する新たな手法を検討した．この結果，特性を2元的に評価することで都道府県別の特性比較の明確化及びその手法の発展の可能性が確認された．

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異なる生産関数による社会資本ストックと民間資本ストックの限界生産性評価に関する研究

小山健, 高瀬達夫, 伊藤仁

建設マネジメント研究論文集
2008年 15 巻 397-404
発行日: 2008/12/10
公開日: 2010/08/24

DOI https://doi.org/10.2208/procm.15.397

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社会厚生にとって公共財の最適供給量について議論することは必要であり, 限られた条件が満たされる場合にはその最適量が理論的には求められることは既知である. しかしながら現実の社会はその条件を満たすことはなく従って公共財は過少供給になりやすい. 市場の失敗といわれるもののうちの一つである. 公共財のほとんどは公共事業を通して供給されると考えて良い.
公共事業による公共投資の結果は社会資本としてストックされ, 民間部門の生産性向上や生活環境の向上に寄与している. このように社会資本は社会厚生に必要と考えられるが現在わが国ではその投資について疑問が呈されている. 国の負債が原因となった, 限られた投資額に効率性が求められるからと考えられる. 本研究では社会化資本ストックの限界生産性を計測することで, もう一単位の公共事業の必要性を計測することにした.
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地域経済の成長格差に関する一考察(1975年～1993年度)

羅洲夢

地域学研究
2000年 31 巻 3 号 135-149
発行日: 2001/12/31
公開日: 2008/10/10

DOI https://doi.org/10.2457/srs.31.3_135

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In so far, interesting issues concerning the growth differential at the regional level can be divided into two problems. First, what factors have caused the growth differential? Second, is the regional differential in convergence or divergence with the economic rules of growth differential?
The purpose of this study is to examine convergence of growth differential considering the differing growth patterns of metropolitan areas and local areas in Japan's regional economies. Furthermore, the analysis model used in this paper can investigate the effectiveness of factors causing growth differential and the speed of convergence in growth differential.
This study leads to two notable conclusions. First, I find that the results of testing in the OLS model are not suitable for metropolitan areas. However, this model appeared suitable for local areas. This can be attributed to differing patterns between metropolitan and local areas in regards to regional differentials (β convergence) in income per capita of the employed.
Second, it appears that in local areas having correlatively significant results, the variable of the human capital play a positive role in the growth convergence whereas the variable of the public capital does not. However, when considering effect other than those for product activity, I guess that the role of public capital in the growth would imply higher relative returns than the result suggested in the statistics.
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コンフリクト解析に基づく地球温暖化防止行動の評価に関する研究

盛岡通, 内海秀樹

土木学会論文集
1995年 1995 巻 515 号 13-22
発行日: 1995/05/21
公開日: 2010/08/24

DOI https://doi.org/10.2208/jscej.1995.515_13

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本稿では, 地球温暖化防止行動を, 各々の当事者の利害関係の存在するコンフリクトと見立てその評価を試みる. 基本的な枠組みは, コンフリクト解析に準じるが, 各当事者の選好情報の設定の仕方に改良を加えた. この改良は, 各当事者の単位行動代替案に関する選好情報を与えるというものである. この結果, オプション数が増えても簡便に選好情報を記述することを可能としている. また, 当事者のさらに上位の価値指向性として費用配分の基本的倫理を設定することにより, 各当事者の性格を反映した分析を可能としている.
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社会資本の地域別限界生産性分析

光多長温

地域学研究
1999年 30 巻 1 号 97-111
発行日: 2000/10/30
公開日: 2008/10/10

DOI https://doi.org/10.2457/srs.30.97

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Method
We have analyzed the productivity of government capital formation in three steps.
Firstly, we have estimated the productivity of government capital formation in every prefecture, and compared it with the productivity of private investment in the same prefecture. To do this, we first estimated the capital stock of both government capital formation and private investment in each prefecture, and calculated the prefecture's marginal productivity on the basis of parameters gained by the following Cobb-Douglas product function:
Y (Gross Regional Product)=A×‹Number of Workers›^α×‹Private Investment›^β×‹Government Capital Formation›^γ
Secondly, we have picked up roads, seaports and airports as important specimens of government capital formation and estimated the respective marginal productivity achieved in each region. The necessary parameters were gained by the Cobb-Douglas product function adapted for sectional analysis: Y=AE^αK^β_??_ when Y (Gross Regional Product)=A×‹Number of Workers›^α×‹Private Investment›^β×‹Government Capital Formation›^γ.
Thirdly, we have analyzed the employee compensation effect of government investment in each region. To do this, we calculated both its direct and indirect effects, on the basis of “input coefficient table” and “inverse matrix table” in Inter-regional Input-output Table.
Results
1. Regional productivity achieved by government investment.
(1) In almost all prefectures, both MPG (marginal productivity of government investment) and MPK (marginal productivity of private investment) are gradually declining. This is most visible in non-metropolitan areas
(2) The trend is MPK<MPG in metropolises and areas surrounding them, whereas it is MPK>MPG in other areas.
(3) Speaking of regional blocks, the trend is MPK<MPG in metropolitan areas of Kanto, Tokai, Kinki and Chugoku blocks, whereas it is MPK>MPG in non-metropolitan areas of Hokkaido, Tohoku, Ko-Shin-Etsu, Hokuriku, Shikoku and Kyushu blocks.
2. Marginal productivity achieved by the structures.
(1) General trend: the marginal productivity of the above-mentioned structures gets smaller in the order of ’airports<seaports<government investment>roads, ’ and it is declining in all of them, especially in ‘roads’.
(2) Seaports: the marginal productivity is rather stable here, and comparatively high in the Kanto, Tokai and Kinki blocks, that is, higher in metropolitan areas.
(3) Airports: the marginal productivity is highest here, especially in the Tokai, Kinki and Kanto blocks, though regional fluctuation is considerable. Among non-metropolis areas it is comparatively higher in the Kyushu block.
(4) Roads: the marginal productivity is generally low, especially in non-metropolitan areas, lowest in the Hokkaido, Tohoku, Shikoku, Chugoku and Hokuriku blocks, highest in the three largest metropolitan areas.
3. Compensation of employees achieved by public construction.
(1) The direct employee compensation effect of public construction is 0.08_??_0.11 and the indirect effect is 0.11_??_0.16.
(2) The direct effect is greater in Kanto, Kinki and Hokkaido, and smaller in the Chugoku and Shikoku blocks.
(3) The total of direct and indirect effects are greater in metropolitan areas, partly because of capital feedback to the headquarters there. This effect is largely nullified in Hokkaido, Tohoku, Chugoku and Shikoku through the capital flow out of these blocks.
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経済学から見た国土形成計画

浅田義久

日本不動産学会誌
2008年 22 巻 1 号 75-80
発行日: 2008/07/15
公開日: 2015/07/17

DOI https://doi.org/10.5736/jares.22.1_75

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資本財輸入国の経済成長と貿易収支

仙波憲一, 宮阪雅幸

地域学研究
1997年 28 巻 1 号 103-119
発行日: 1998/12/30
公開日: 2008/10/10

DOI https://doi.org/10.2457/srs.28.103

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Utilizing an endogenous open growth model with learning-by-doing and knowledge spillovers, we analyze the relation between the long-run economic growth and the balance of trade of a country whose imports consist of capital goods. In addition to this we distinguish the model into the market economy one and the planned growth one. The former has no social planner who controls the activities of the capital accumulation and the consumption of the economy.
We derive some results. First, in the long-run equilibrium point, the planned growth one has higher levels of production, capital stock and consumption than those of market economy. But two models have the same growth rate of the variables and the rate is independent of propensity to export and import ratio of capital accumulation. Second, we point out that the balance of trade of market economy has a stronger tendency towards export surplus than planned growth one along the optimal path and also at the equilibrium point. Third, we show that, for both models, the trade balance always becomes surplus whenever the propensity to export has larger value than the import ratio of the capital accumulatios. But, even if in the opposite case, we present a possibility for the trade balance to turn surplus along the optimal growth path.
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