This paper presents a computer aided system for making the train timetable, DIAPLAN-II (Train Diagram Planning Support System). It is designed to prepare the timetable of complicated lines including junctions and sections with different number of tracks such as single, double and four. We have already developed the DIAPLAN for double-track lines. It has employed the integrated framework of simulation and scheduling to emulate human experts' scheduling process on a computer, and it has been successfully applied to the co-operative work between man and computer in the timetable planning. Based on this experience, we employ the same framework to develop our new system. In this system, we define some additional functions to adjust the arrival and departure order of trains at a station in our framework, because it is the critical point for making the timetable of those complicated lines. A timetable generated by DIAPLAN-II shows its usefulness in the co-operative timetable planning.

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本研究では，国鉄時代に行われた投資のうち，東京圏における放射路線の通勤輸送力増強投資（通称「五方面作戦」）を対象として投資の効果を評価した．東京圏の各市区町村の人口密度と主従業地までの一般化費用との関係を表すモデルを作成し，そのモデルに基づき五方面作戦が行われなかった場合の東京圏の人口分布及び輸送量を算出し，五方面作戦の利用者便益の算出及び財務評価を行った．本研究の結論として，五方面作戦は大きな利用者便益をもたらし，また鉄道事業者の経営的にも良好な結果をもたらした，ということが得られた．

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The purpose of the paper is to analyze the traffic congestion in the mass transportation system in Tokyo Metropolitan Area. An econometric model was constructed to explain the changing trends of distancial distributions of population, employment, production, land price and traffic to Central Business District, and estimated by the pooling data of 6 subareas and 7 years. The simulation showed a continuous tendency of double-ring growth pattern of suburb area, and increasing traffic congestion to the future. The analysis also revealed that the social cost caused by traffic congestion reached to 1.1 billion yen for 137, 000 persons. This social cost is estimated to increase to 4.6 times in 1970-80 based upon real wage increase, increase of congestion, increases of traffic time and traffic population. The benefit-cost ratio of past transportation investment was revealed as quite high based upon the analysis which suggested that the initial investment was covered by 12 years using 10 percent of discount rate. The analysis also revealed the inverse effects of transportation investments to increase the transportation capacity and to shorten the traffic time upon the velocity of urban sprawl. The analysis as a whole strongly suggests the urgent needs to improve the mass transportation system to mitigate the accelerated congestion in the future.

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本研究では、東京圏を対象地域とし、利用者の乗降駅及び経路・列車種別の選択を混雑回避を考慮に入れた上で表現でき、しかも実際の鉄道輸送改善施策の効果把握にも耐えうる実用的な需要予測システムの構築を行った。本システムの特徴をまとめると (1) 経路列挙の必要のないネットワーク配分法を用いている、(2) 経路選択において、混雑の影響を考慮してコストをフローディペンデントなものとして扱っている、(3) 複数の列車種別を表現できる、(4) 乗降駅の選択において乗降駅と経路の擬似的な同時選択を表現可能としている、といった点である。さらに、本システムを東京圏における2つの輸送改善施策に適用し、その効果を予測・評価した。

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