実績列車駅停車時間に基づいた機械学習による駅出発遅延時間予測手法の検討

抄録

In the urban railways of the metropolitan area, train delays during morning rush hours have become a significant issue. This problem isn't merely caused by large, sudden delays, but also by an accumulation of minor delays, which can escalate into substantial setbacks. This presents a disadvantage not only for the operators managing the train services but also for the users. Recent years have seen active reporting of studies predicting delay times. However, these studies do not take into account the accumulative nature of delays because the data input to the learning machine is only for stations behind the target station. Therefore, this paper aims to predict the delay time that occurs when each train departs from a station. To do so, we constructed a network that takes into account the propagation of delays by using data from stations in front of the target station as input. We will provide an overview of the network we constructed and report on its predictive accuracy.