2015 年 71 巻 5 号 p. I_205-I_216
This study proposes a procedure to extend The Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy model 2013R (DICE2013R) to enable the simulation of a new framework for climate change studies (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP)), and tentatively assesses long-term climate stabilization targets, considering the possible range of climate sensitivity. The results show that if a higher than actual climate sensitivity is assumed in the planning stage, a greater reduction in industrial CO2 emissions will be required to achieve the 2°C target, and thus the climate change costs are also larger. In contrast, with a lower than actual climate sensitivity assumption, a lesser reduction in industrial CO2 emissions will be required. Climate change researchers and policymakers need to balance the designation of climate policy and the uncertainty with respect to climate sensitivity, to avoid potential losses when climate change policy is implemented. The study also identified the mitigation and adaptation challenge levels, as defined in the SSP framework.
