2020 年 76 巻 2 号 p. I_37-I_42
Climate change is a serious issue resulting in global variation in the precipitation pattern. One of the major problems hindering research in examining the change and variation in precipitation trend in Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is a lack of high-quality, long-term data. Therefore, in the current study, the spatial and temporal annual, seasonal, and extreme precipitation trend were analyzed over 118 years (1901-2018) using high resolution Climate Research Unit data (CRU TS 4.03) over the entire region. Durbin Watson was used to test the autocorrelation in the annual and seasonal series, the modified MannKendall (MMK) and Sen's slope estimator tests were used to detect trend for the autocorrelated time series data. The monthly CRU data was then converted to daily using MODAWEC model in order to test the trend in extreme precipitation and for evaluating the change in four indices (R5D, R20, RR1, and SDII). The results showed decreasing trend affecting most of the countries in the region especially in annual and winter series with Yamen, Palestine and Lebanon got the highest significant negative trend. There were no signal toward negative or positive trend in extreme precipitation series. Arabian Peninsula (Kuwait, Qatar, Yamen, and Bahrain) showed positive trend in extreme indices (R5D, R20, SDII) while the western side exhibited negative trend. North Africa had stationary condition except for Egypt where negative trend detected.
