The aim of this paper is to evaluate forest management for reducing the risks of Japanese cedar pollinosis in Yamaguchi Prefecture, Japan. For this, we propose a new model with multizonal contingent markets based on the contingent valuation method (CVM) for valuing environmental goods widely distributed in the study area.
Following the framework of the CVM, the economic value of the environmental goods is estimated from people's willingness to pay (WTP) for a management option. A WTP is obtained by asking the question: “If management of Japanese cedar forest in a zone prevent pollen production causing pollinosis, how much could you afford to pay for forest management?” We prepared five concentric belts for each residential place (0-25, 25-50, 50-75, 75-100 and 100-125km from a residential place) so that we could repeat the same question on WTP for each concentric belt. A mail survey was conducted to obtain the data on WTP in eastern part of Yamaguchi Prefecture.
The total value of forest management is estimated in two phases. First, WTP functions are modelled for each concentric zonal market using a Tobit model. Second, by applying the WTP functions to every residential place (municipality) in the study area, we estimate the benefits of forest management for each pair of residential place and concentric belt. By summing the local benefits, we obtained the estimated total benefit (annual value) of managing all the Japanese cedar forest in Yamaguchi Prefecture.
The conclusions of this paper are summarized as follows:
1) A clear distance decay trend of WTPs is found using the proposed model of multizonal contingent markets with concentric belts from residential places. WTPs are also regulated by annual household income (
INC). Since the number of households and the average income per household in densely inhabited districts (DID) are higher than in non-DIDs, greater benefits are estimated for managing Japanese cedar forest near DIDs.
2) The total estimated value of managing the entire Japanese cedar forest for 10 fiscal years is about 14.4 billion yen for all the households in Yamaguchi Prefecture. This value should be regarded as a benefit of a project of cedar forest management for risk reduction of cedar pollen pollinosis.
3) The forest management project should be implemented by the public sector, because of the following two reasons. First, managing the Japanese cedar forest is not cost-effective in timber markets since our estimated benefit is far lower than the cost of growing Japanese cedar as timber. Second, the benefit amounts to about 20% of the total budget for public forestry management in the prefecture. This shows that there is a substantial need to control allergic disease by forest management.
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