Total area of these countries is about 10 times as large as that of Japan. They are abundant in natural resources such as ferrous and non-ferrous minerals, coal, natural gas, and crude oil. Actually, they has had a good deal of share of production in the former USSR. But, now, the worn-out facilities, delay of development, and aggravated pollution have suffered them. Therefore, foreign investment and assistance of technologies will urgently be requested.
Japan should be more aware of the vulnerability of supply of rare metals, especially cobalt from southern Africa. The production of Zaire and Zambia amounts to 74% of cobalt and 8% of copper of the world's production. However, since 1982 its production has been declining. Zaire and Zambia urge to help for improvement of mining and transport facilities. Zambia is dependent upon road and rail way systems link to ports in neighbouring countries for imports and exports. This report describes the current situation of transportation and mining in the area of the Copperbelt.
It seems strange and unusual but quite significant that various catastrophic phenomena have been observed occurring simultaneously toward the end of the 20th century. World population growth is very rapid and energy consumption by human being has increased remarkably. So is the mineral consumption. It is thought the time has come when we have to carefully watch and consider over the earth's supply of useful minerals in the danger of exhaustion. For the increase of earth's mineral resources from the global view, utilization of existing resources including low grade ore is necessary and for this purpose technical renovation is essential, as the reserves are determined by economic conditions containing mining and mineral processing cost and methods, in addition to geological conditions. Most of the mineral consumers are what is called advanced countries, who depend upon the supply from developing countries. Therefore, technical cooperation between advanced and developing countries is important for the smooth supply of mineral resources. There are various ways of assistance by the advanced countries to the developing countries. Official Development Assistance (ODA) could well contribute to the global problems including the developing of mineral resources.
Trend analysis on the lead demand of lead acid battery in Japan (hereafter, battery lead demand) from 1966 to 1989 was carried out in order to forecast the near future (1990 and 1991 fiscal years) battery lead demand by means of extrapolating the trend analysis results.Prior to this analysis, the following points were ascertained; (1) The battery lead demand, which is thought to be easily understood in relation to the economic activity of the car industry, can be applied instead of the whole domestic lead demand. This means that it will make no great difference if we estimate the growth of all domestic lead demand through that of battery lead demand. (2) Battery lead demand generally shows an upward trend through the whole period, but downturns, which were based on the influence of the first oil shock (1974) and that of the world-wide recession (1982), are notably found. (3) The battery lead demand can be explained by the total GNP (Gross National Product) instead of those GNPs which were divided into industrial areas related to battery lead demand. The trend analysis of demand for battery lead, which consists of electrolytic lead, secondary lead and scraplead, were carried out using three methods-(a) simple regression analyses, using fiscal year and GNP as independent variables, and (b) time series analysis. The near future forecast was then carried out by extrapolating the results and these forecasts were integrated by means of the weighted average method. The results for battery lead demand are as follows. For 1990-3.06×105 tons (fiscal year regression analysis), 3.14×105 tons (GNP regression analysis) and 3.14×105 tons (time series analysis); 3.12×105 tons (integrated forecast value); 3.10×105 tons (actual value);+2, 000 tons forecast error. For 1991-3.16×105 tons (fiscal year regression analysis), 3.28×105 tons (GNP regression analysis) and 3.32×105 tons (time series analysis); 3.27×105 tons (integrated forecast value); 3.09×105 tons (actual value);+18, 000 tons forecast error. The difference between the integrated forecast value and the actual result in 1990 is only+2, 000 tons. The business kept the same upward trend in 1990 as it did since November 1986. This implies that this forecast method, which is carried out by means of extrapolating the trend analysis results, can be reliably used in a monotonous econimic atmosphere. On the other hand, the difference between the integrated forecast value and the actual result in 1991 is+18, 000 tons, which is much larger than that in 1990. In addition, it shows an upward trend, though the actual value decreased in 1991 compared with that in 1990. This shows that we could not read the decrease of the battery lead demand caused by the recession, which seems to have begun in the beginning of 1991. This implies that this forecast method cannot be applied in a fluctuating economic atmosphere.
World production of widely used metals grew rapidly until the early 1970's, as expressed in The Limits to Growth (Meadows et al., 1972), but then metal demand dropped sharply after 1973. Growth rates in production of each metal varied year by year or among metals. The difference between supply-demand forecast and actual production during last 20 years was examined. Different patterns between the two for 16 metals were classified into four groups. (1) The actual production of Co, Cr and Pt exceeded the projected trend that had been predicted in 1970. (2) Iron accounts for more than 95% of all metals consumed. A significant proportion of Mn, Ni, W, Mo, Cr and Co produced is used in the steel industry. This group, composed of iron and related metals other than Co and Cr, shows a similar pattern. (3) Growth rates of production of Cu, Zn, Ag, and Al continued to be low during the last 20 years, but the rates are not negative. (4) Growth rates of production of Pb, Au, Sn and Hg are negative or zero. Large differences between actual production and predicted consumption prevailed during the 1970-1990 period. When the lifetime of these metals calculated in 1970 are compared with those in 1990, static indices of Au, Hg, Ag, Sn, Zn and Pb which fall in the range of 10-30 year, have not changed very much. No tendency toward depletion of the resources has been found under the present condition. New reserves have been discovered in the last 20 years. A basic question in the long-term supply is how long the present situation continue.