国内飼料価格と国際市場価格変動との関連性分析

抄録

This study analyzes recent-year price fluctuations on the international market that have affected domestic feed prices. A number of results were derived. F irst, there is no relationship between corn import prices and corn import volumes; there is also no relationship between corn import prices and domestic feed production. The corn import volume has been declining since reaching its peak in 2003. Second, the corn prices of near futures as per the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) precede corn import prices by four months; we also analyze domestic feed prices via time-series correlation analysis. Third, the greatest impact on domestic feed prices is that of corn prices of near futures on the CBOT, which were analyzed via multiple regression analysis. Fourth, under the compound feed price stabilization system in Japan, the impact of international market prices on domestic feed prices was found to be around 10-15%.