リアルオプションと戦略
Online ISSN : 2189-6585
ISSN-L : 2189-6585
査読論文
積雪リスクマネジメントにおける一考察: 新潟県のスキー場における事例研究
伊藤 晴祥
著者情報
研究報告書・技術報告書 フリー

2015 年 7 巻 3 号 p. 32-39

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抄録
This article studies the impact of weather conditions on the financial performance of ski resorts and local governments and proposes a hedging mechanism to manage the exposure. We analyze a unique ski resorts visitor data set. Our analysis shows that maximum snow depth has an inverted-U shaped relationship in regard to the number of visitors to ski resorts while the snow fall has a significantly adverse impact on the profit to the city government. We then design a hedging mechanism for this risk exposure and examine its contribution to the corporate value of the ski resorts and city government. In particular, we use the Wang transform model to incorporate the decision makers’ risk preferences in the evaluation of the snow derivatives. We find that the proposed snow derivatives contribute significantly to ski resorts value if the safety loading offered would be 5%-10%. This low safety loading might be possible contracting by the over-the-counter trade between two parties on which risks concerned have opposite impacts.
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© 2015 日本リアルオプション学会
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