An assessment of GHG emissions and mitigation potential from Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land-Use in Cambodia

抄録

 Cambodia had changed from a net carbon sink in 1994 to a net emitter in 2000 where the highest contributor of GHG emissions was land use change and forestry (51%), followed by agriculture (45%), energy (4%), and waste (less than 1%). However, Cambodia has not formulated a concrete plan for GHG mitigation in the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land-Use (AFOLU) sector. Therefore, it is an appropriate time to propose a scenario to assess GHG emissions and mitigation potential for this sector in Cambodia. This study applies AFOLU Bottom-up Model (AFOLU-B) to estimate GHG emissions and mitigation potential based on assumed socioeconomic indicators and on ongoing policies for the AFOLU sector through taking several constraints under mitigation cost and measures into account. The results yield that GHG emissions will change from a net carbon sink (0.94MtCO₂eq.) in 2010 to a net emitter (13.98MtCO₂eq.) in this sector in 2050. In the agricultural sector, the most effective mitigation measures are applied with the cost of less than 10US$/tCO₂eq.; rice cultivation contributes the biggest share (87%), while in the land use change and forestry sector, the most plausible mitigation measures are applied with the cost of less than 50US$/tCO₂eq.; reduced impact logging generates the largest mitigation potentials (99%) because of limited available land to apply plantations in the future. These findings are expected to provide insights for decision-makers to formulate climate change mitigation policy for the AFOLU sector.