Some kinds of studies about innovative products diffusion like the product lifecycle and innovation diffusion theories exist, however, they dictate only the past phenomenon or the analysis of the limited diffusion process by conducting the consumer survey with the specific target consumers. Under the recent instable business situation, it is difficult to reproduce the future projection with the studies in the business practice. In this paper, new products diffusion model is defined as supporting the innovation forecast. Mainly Japanese twenty-four innovations are analyzed by applying them to the model in order to identify the diffusion type and provide objectively the strategic proposals by the model. As the result, the paper can validate that the feature of the innovation adaptors are identified with the model parameters and the diffusion forecast can be classified to four diffusion types. The analysis results are applicable for the venture or the business development section in a large company to decide the initial (or additional) marketing investment or to plan the optimal release timing of the next new products as KPI of management strategy. In addition, the analysis is to be useful for the venture capitalists who should monitor the companies invested by themselves after the funding.

Recently an emerging discussion regarding corporate venture capital investment (CVC) is getting attention as a new research theme. These discussions have focused on inter-organizational knowledge acquisition by which firm imitates technologies or ideas of entrepreneurial ventures. Previous literature also has suggested that imitations of technologies or ideas by backing firms are limited in industries which intellectual property protection is weak for an appropriability of product innovation. However, if these suggestions by previous literature are correct, we cannot have enough answer for why firms do CVC investment in industries which patent protection is strong. To provide a solution for this problem, we focused on a moderating effect of CVC investment on firm's absorptive capacity (Cohen and Levinthal, 1990). In particular, we evaluate how corporate value changes when a focal firm acquires external knowledge. For an empirical analysis, we use licenses and acquisitions panel data of patents in the pharmaceutical industry. According to the result of the analysis, greater CVC investment positively correlates with firm’s value when acquiring uncertain external knowledge. In contrast, greater CVC investment negatively correlates firm's value when acquired external knowledge is relatively certain. These findings suggest that information accumulation via CVC investment reduces technological uncertainty in that area. These findings also suggest that CVC investment may contribute to both venture financings and venture’s exit.