According to the method developed by US National Institute of Health, probability of causation of cancer (PC) by radiation which evaluates numerically how previous exposure to radiation contributed to the occurrence of cancer was calculated for Japanese population using appropriate data for cancer incidence and life table in Japan. In this study, PC estimates were obtained for cancers of esophagus, stomach, colon, liver, pancreas, lung, breast and thyroid, and leukemia.
For cancers other than leukemia, the relationship between PC estimates and age at exposure was classified into the following three types:
1) cancers of esophagus, liver and breast for which PC estimates decrease with increasing age at exposure;
2) cancers of stomach, colon, pancreas and lung for which PC estimates decrease to a certain age and then increase;
3) thyroid cancer for which no clear relation between PC estimates and age at exposure is observed.
For leukemia, for which time from exposure to diagnosis was assumed to have a log-normal distribution, PC estimates reach their maximum several years after exposure and then decrease with age.
Differences were found in PC estimates between Japanese and US populations due possibly to the differences of baseline cancer incidence. The temporal pattern of PC estimates was, however, found to be similar, reflecting the similarity of the temporal pattern of cancer incidence with age in the two populations.
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