After the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011, Demand Response (DR) aimed at capable of suppressing a peak of power has gotten a lot of attention. We are testing ADR(Automated Demand Response) system as an electricity aggregator (intermediary company between electricity providers and end users) by controlling equipment such as air-conditioning equipment at multiple supermarkets. To balance supply and demand power, it is important to assess success rate of DR. In this paper, we study theoretical analysis model of DR success rate based on demand forecasting error. We compare the results of theoretical analysis with experimental trial and show its validity. In addition, we simulate the case of different store numbers. As a result, we can see that 25 stores (200 kW DR contract capacity, negawatt 8kW/store) in winter and 50 stores (500kW DR contract capacity, negawatt 10kW/store) in summer are required to achieve 80% DR success rate.

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