現在の日本では、少子高齢化が進み、まちの衰退が進み始めている。地方都市では、少子高齢化は既に大きな問題となっている。都心郊外の開発された

　　A reduction in the populations of suburban sprawls of metropolitan areas has been forecast as a situation where populations proceed to decline in Japan.　Above all, the large-scale population of Yokohama City is expected to decline and countermeasures for management in residential areas because of population reduction are becoming a pressing issue.　Already, in the west of Yokohama City, the population decline has started, and problems with vacant houses and an aging population are arising.

　　This study focused on the Kanazawa-ku area, which is an area in Yokohama City that has shown early population declines, to investigate the current situation of land use by utilizing GIS data.　This study aimed to clarify the relationships between land use in suburban residential areas of the Tokyo metropolitan area and identify demographics by using GIS data such as topography from micro and macro perspectives.　We hypothesized that an increase or decrease in the aging index of residential blocks correlates with topographical and urban development factors.

　　Results of the survey confirmed that the aging index did not progress uniformly on every residential block.　Moreover, we divided the aging index into old-age and youth-age population ratios to analyze the principal components, the factors related to the increase or decrease in old-age and youth-age population ratios were different.　The analysis showed that it is difficult to sustain residential areas due to a higher aging index in residential blocks characterized by high ratios of detached housing.　The novelty of this study confirms that the increasing area of an aging index overlaps the residential areas planned during the period of high economic growth in Japan.

JEL Classifications:J11, R30, R52

本研究は、共同住宅を対象とし、学区といった地区レベルで現在と将来の空き家率を推計することを目的として実施した。現在空き家率については、まず

本研究は、遠郊外に立地すると捉えられる千葉県季美の森

Vacant housing is a significant social problem and individual issue in residential areas, particularly with housing owned by elderly people.　This study clarified the perceptions and wishes of elderly house owners by conducting a survey on satisfaction with the current state of housing and relocation needs of people aged over 50 who have been living in the same housing for more than 20 years.　We compared and analyzed the data in terms of two groups, classified by their location in the urban areas and the suburbs of Tokyo.
　　This study confirmed the hypothesis that the motive for relocation comes from dissatisfaction with the current housing of the participants.　The results indicated people living in the urban area had higher satisfaction rates than those living in the suburbs, low satisfaction was linked to location and lack of convenience.　In cases where the participants were dissatisfied with the current state of their housing, the demand for change seemed strong.　In particular, participants living in suburban residential areas who were dissatisfied wished to move to a more convenient area.　Future plans for relocation should consider the low demand for suburban housing.　In addition, housing demands decrease with advanced age because elderly people are highly satisfied with their current housing.　Conversely, 50 years olds who were still working showed low satisfaction with their current housing.　Therefore, promoting relocation before an advanced age may be a useful policy.
　　Most elderly participants surveyed planned to cover any moving expenses through selling their current housing.　Therefore, if elderly people are unable to acquire adequate funding from the sale of their houses, plans for their future lives may be confounded and they may be deterred from relocating.　An appropriate advisory system must be established to encourage the circulation of houses in the market.　Increases in the demand for vacant housing may be halted with the development of existing home markets.
　　The weak demand for single housing in suburban residential areas and the resulting low liquidity for elderly people living in such areas present a problem with a potential increase in vacant housing.　The development of existing housing markets, a well-informed residential strategic plan, and training for area managers are immediately necessary to continue the maintenance of good residential areas.

JEL Classification: R21, R58