The Japanese policy evaluation system is about to undergo a major change.

  On March 28, 2023, the “Basic Policy on Policy Evaluation,” a document approved by the Japanese Cabinet, was revised. The contents of the revised policy are marked by a shift that will remain in the history of policy evaluation. This paper will point out three specific details: (1) the use of policy evaluation results in decision-making was put forward, (2) effectiveness evaluation was emphasized, and (3) the integration of the policy evaluation and the administrative project review was suggested. These reforms have many points in common with the direction aimed at by the 2010 reform of the U.S.GPRA Modernization Act (GPRAMA). This paper discusses about what is the reform of the policy evaluation system trying to change about Japanese policy and evaluation．

  At the Administrative Reform Promotion Council on December 21, 2022, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida declared that the Administrative Project Review would be overhauled to incorporate the EBPM method. There are two major reforms contained therein, the first of which is the use of logic models. This has been a long-standing initiative that, through the reassessment, will be incorporated into the review in earnest. In addition, the review will include a policy of “agile policy formation and evaluation”; that is, the flexible review of policy objectives and related indicators, aiming for agile policy making and evaluation. This paper reviews these developments and discusses the significance and limitations of promoting EBPM in administrative project reviews, as well as identifying potential challenges in implementing “agile policy formulation and evaluation”.

  In Basic Policy for Economic and Fiscal Management and Reform 2017, it was clearly stated that “Evidence-Based Policy Making（EBPM）and statistical reforms will be promoted in an integrated manner as two wheels of a cart”. Since then, EBPM has been promoted by the government in Japan. In the promotion of EBPM, what is noteworthy from the perspective of evaluation studies is the implementation of logic models into policy evaluation. Therefore, this paper summarizes an overview of policy evaluation and EBPM in the Cabinet Office. Then, based on the existing literature on the structure of logic models, we construct an analytical frame regarding the structure of logic models for administrative measures. We then apply the analytical frame to the logic model used in the policy evaluation of the Cabinet Office, and clarify the structural issues and the ideal form of the logic model.

  Twenty years after the introduction of the policy evaluation system in 2001, it has achieved certain results, including the penetration and establishment of the policy management method in the administration of Japan, which sets numerical targets and manages progress while monitoring performance. However, it has been pointed out that the policy evaluation system has become a work to prepare evaluation documents, which is separated from the policy-making process, and that it has not been utilized for actual policy-making or improvement.

  In order to realize a government capable of responding to rapidly changing social and economic conditions and increasingly complex and difficult issues, it is necessary to realize the primary function of policy evaluation, which is to grasp and analyze the effects of policies in a timely manner in the policy-making process, formulate improvement measures based on the results, and reflect them in policies, and transform the administration into a flexible and agile one. Based on this recognition, the government has promoted policy formulation and evaluation reforms since 2021.

  This paper aims to summarize the history and content of the government’s efforts to reform the “policy formulation and evaluation” in Japan along with the background and awareness of issues.

  Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (Administrative Evaluation Bureau) has been working on the “Empirical collaborative research about policy impact and analytical methods” since 2018. I will introduce the empirical collaborative research in FY2021, which was conducted by the Administrative Evaluation Bureau, “Grant for Rural Development,” and “Survey and Analysis of the Effects of Sending Teachers to Overseas Educational Institutions”.

  “Grant for Rural Development” is a grant area and uniform areas after organizing the route of the agricultural, mountainous and fishing village promotion grants contributed to the revitalization of agricultural, mountain and fishing villages, and the route of effects for activation. The effects were quantitatively verified by comparing, and the measures to further enhance the effects of the grant were examined. As a result of the verification, it was confirmed that the “number of agricultural management bodies with employment” improved.

  The “Survey and Analysis of the Effects of Sending Teachers to Overseas Educational Institutions” is a quantitative examination of the differences in the effectiveness of teachers dispatched to overseas educational facilities such as Japanese schools, in terms of the types of abilities that teachers have improved compared with teachers who have never been dispatched, and whether there are differences in the effectiveness of the environment and efforts at the destination. As a result of the examination, it was confirmed that dispatched teachers had improved their ability in curriculum management and guidance in multicultural and multilingual environments compared with non-dispatched teachers.

  This study suggests that it is important to examine the verification method of policy effects as much as possible at the stage of policy formulation and to collect and organize necessary data during project implementation.

  The Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare (MHLW) has decided to include “utilization of logic models” in the National plans and the Guidelines for the Medical care plan, the Cancer control plan, and the Cardiovascular disease control plan at the end of FY2022. Based on this new approach, prefectures are expected to formulate three plans in FY2023.

  In order to explore the factors that accelerate the dissemination of the logic model, this paper reviewed the national plans and prefectural plans. In addition, it analyzed the contents of the lectures by the person in charge who created good practices. As a result, the followings are clarified: 1. logic models began to spread; 2. good practices are emerging; 3. as a result, there are disparities between departments and prefectures; and, 4. there are lessons to be learned from good practices.

  If the application of logic model to these three plans becomes mainstream across Japan in FY2023, it will provide a basis for progress in policy evaluation in MHLW.

  On May 31, 2023, the International Exchange Committee (IEC) of the Japan Evaluation Society (JES) held an online seminar to introduce the graduate programs in evaluation study in the US and the current situation of evaluation education in Japanese universities.

  From the American side, three program directors of the prominent evaluation studies, Dr. Michael Harnar of Western Michigan University, Dr. Stewart Donaldson of the Claremont Graduate University, and Dr. Liliana Rodriguez-Campos of the University of South Florida, introduced the actual structure, requirements, and graduates’ career paths of their programs.

  From the Japanese side, JES president Dr. Yoko Ishida gave an opening address, and Dr. Ryo Sasaki, a vice chair of the IEC, presented an overview of the graduate programs in evaluation studies in the US. After the presentation of three US scholars, Dr. Takaaki Miyaguchi, another vice chair of the IEC, explained the current situation of evaluation education in Japanese universities, followed by Dr. Yuriko Sato, the IEC chair, who gave the concluding remarks.

  Seminar’s presentation materials are available at the following URL:

  https://socialexperimentation.web.fc2.com/seminar/JES_IntExCom_seminar2023.html