Heat pump water heaters (HPWHs) are attracting considerable attention as a pivotal renewable energy technology for achieving carbon neutrality in commercial and residential sectors. This study proposes an optimization model that comprehensively incorporates the dynamics of HPWHs and their interaction with electricity, heat, and water. Formulated as a joint optimization problem of technology selection, capacities planning, and operation scheduling, the model enables a potential evaluation of an HPWH-based energy system. Numerical simulations, conducted for a single household in Fukui city over five days during the winter season, reveal that introducing a photovoltaic system, an HPWH, and a gas water heater (GWH) can minimize CO
2 emissions. In this configuration, the optimal HPWH capacity is 11.7 kW, leading to a 41.4% reduction in CO
2 emissions compared to an HPWH-only scenario. However, deploying equipment that achieves the above reduction would raise the investment-equivalent cost, calculated using the combined capital-recovery and O&M rates of renewable-energy devices and other related equipment, to approximately 6.5 times that of the total-cost-minimizing case. Furthermore, the derivation of a solution that combines HPWH and GWH is thought to derive from considering time variation in the coefficient of performance (COP), highlighting the importance of considering dynamics in HPWH modeling.
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