Japanese birth rate is declining during these twenty years, causing to discussion on measures for it. In liberal and democratic countries as Japan and Western countries the so-called population policy which means direct pronatalistic measures is not appropriate and is not accepted by the general public. In such countries indirect policy measures which provide favorable conditions for child bearing and rearing to the general public are appropriate. In recent years such indirect policy measures to support parents and their children are discussed in publications by the governmental organizations, for example, White Paper on Welfare by Ministry of Health and Welfare and White Paper on National Life by Economic Planning Agency. In this paper, the author presents his idea on the concept of population policy, emphasizing the importance of indirect measures. As an example the child allowance system in Japan is explained and evaluated by comparing with those in Western countries.

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INAHSIM (Integrated Analytical Model for Household Simulation) is a micro simulation model, which was first developed in 1984-85 by using actual initial population and a set of transition probabilities derived from vital statistics and other national sample surveys. Among several attempts to improve the simulation model since 1985, a new application of the model has been made in 1993-94, which we call as 1994 Simulations. An outline of INAHSIM Model as developed in 1985 was first described briefly in this paper, with some characteristic features of the model. Although this paper mainly deals with the basic framework and main results of 1994 Simulations, some policy implications of the simulation were also discussed. In the analysis of households and families, applying INAHSIM to Japan, dynamic transition of household types was particularly focused. This paper is based on a new application of INAHSIM, where initial population of the model has been prepared by using the simulation model itself. In this way, it is confirmed that INAHSIM is applicable to countries where initial population is not available from census or national household surveys. Moreover, through this method, all problems caused by the initial population without the information about family members residing outside of the household will be avoided. New simulations were executed for the period of 1991-2040. In this model, family system is expressed by a set of probabilities, and by changing these variables, INAHSIM is able to apply to various kinds of family systems. Therefore, the outputs of INAHSIM are not limited to the information on the future number and composition of households. INAHSIM provides us, among others, information on dynamic transition of household types, the effects of family systems to the number and structure of households, and the household situation of the aged.

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The studies of 'Hinoe-uma' seem to have lacked the three perspectives; [1] the scope of demographic influence of 'Hinoe-uma', [2] demographic characteristics from the viewpoint of children who were born in the year 'Hinoe-uma', [3] socio-demographic influence of 'Hinoe-uma'. So we explored the various data regarding the three points in 1966 'Hinoe-uma'. First we confirmed by macro data that both Koreans and Chinese in Japan, Japanese in foreign countries and parents who had illegitimate child in 'Hinoe-uma' were also influenced by superstitions 'Hinoe-uma'. By micro sample survey data we found several new facts; (1) children born in 'Hinoe-uma' had more uncles and aunts on the mother side than children born in other years. (2) the second child born in 'Hinoe-uma' has more siblings than the second child born in other years. (3) white-collar father who had child in 'Hinoe-uma' had more number of children than father in other jobs. (4) children born in 'Hinoe-uma' knew the contents of superstition 'Hinoe-uma' and thought that if they had chance for giving births in 'Hinoe-uma', they had a baby in 'Hinoe-uma'. On possible socio-demographic influence, by using macro data, we found in 'Hinoe-uma' (1) lower birth sex ratio in March and higher sex ratio in April than average year, (2) lower domestic migratory sex ratio, (3) the increase number and rate of suicide of women, (4) the rapid increase of the number of mother-child household and the increase of venereal patients. These results were interpreted by the standpoint of influence of 'Hinoe-uma'.

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Are we capable of containing the world population growth within the limit of 10 billion? This question itself was the title of the Symposium held at the time of the Annual Meeting of the Population Association of Japan on June 3, 1994. My answer is "yes" and "no", depending upon the future course of fertility decline to be taken place in the developing countries. It is well-known that the fertility rates in developing countries, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa are extremely high and according to the medium variant of the UN long-term projections, the world population would reach 11.5 billion by the year 2150 on the assumption that even the presently very high fertility in Africa would substantially be reduced to a below replacement level. In this connexion, the key to the stabilization of the world population is advancing gender equality and equity and the empowerment of women and ensuring women's ability to control their own fertility. The International Conference on Population and Development held in Cairo in September 1994 has offered us a promising picture that much expanded and intensified population programmes and efforts in the future with the full cooperation, collaboration and participation committed by women would facilitate massive fertility declines in the developing regions, including the presently high fertility zones of Sub-Saharan Africa. Indicative of the past achievement of international and national family planning activities, there should be more than 100 million married couples in peproductive ages in developing regions who consider seriously the practice of family planning, but who have not yet done so because of the paucity of knowledge and because of the unavailability of contraceptive supplies. It has been calculated roughly that if such "unmet needs" were to be met in future, the fertility of the less developed region would soon be not far from the replacement level. Thus, as the Cairo Conference has taught us, the most important thing to do is to provide women and men with equal rights and responsiblities in the entire course of life, particularly in health, education, production and reproduction.

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After 1945, world population growth attracted attention in the United States of America (US) from the viewpoint of world security. Under the leadership of the US, international population policy focusing on family planning program was formulated. US policy was not determined without serious internal arguments. These points of controversy were carried into the international sphere. In the 1960s, frequent disasters afflicted developing countries and resulted in serious food shortages, which in turn prompted the US to attempt its international population policy. However, US policies were implemented through international agencies supported by the US, but not directly by the US government. After the War, the national budgets of developing countries depended on international assistance by up to 50% on average. In such an international environment, most countries accepted population programs based on US policies without question. By the 1970s many countries had become less independent on international aid. Hence, the US favored a new approach based on economic development, to confront population issues. Most developing countries started their own comprehensive programs in which economic development, health promotion and family planning were integrated. More recently, decentralized programs have been designed to efficiently carry the work. At the same time, the targets accepting services were well defined. Japan has made considerable contributions to the financing of population programs in developing countries through UNFPA and it has increased its budget significantly for bilateral programs. Most Japanese funded bilateral programs are consistent with the intent of international agencies programs. However, frequently during implementation competition occurs between Japanese bilateral programs and international programs.

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