The Journal of Population Studies

This paper looks at past and projected demographic trends in Japan in comparison to European countries to highlight similarities and differences between these low-fertility, ageing populations. The role and impact of the two demographic options (fertility and migration) to counteract the prospected population decline and ageing in Japan are analysed by means of a view of the population dynamics from 1960 to 2060 and formal demography results. It is shown that Japan is going to endure-in demographic terms-four-decade period of below-replacement fertility plus the absence of significant immigration. This has made the difference from European countries, especially in recent decades, when immigration flows have become an important-if not the most important-component of growth in Europe. Although a recovery in fertility may certainly soften the impact of population decline and ageing in Japan, by itself it will not avoid any of them. In fact, its current population structure is such that these processes will continue for a period even if a sudden baby boom, sufficient to bring fertility back to replacement level, were to occur and mortality did not improve any further. Depending on future immigration flows, some European countries would try to continue their population growth or soften their decline, unlike Japan, where population decline is already taking place and may accelerate in the future. As for ageing, this is expected to occur everywhere in Europe, but to a (much) less extent than currently projected for Japan. The composition of the population and the extent of its ageing would then be the real elements of difference in the diverging demographic paths of Japan and Europe.

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This paper analyzes the effects of a mandate of a short-hour option for employees with children under three. The study focuses specifically on the mandate's impacts on the probability of first childbirth, on the intention to have children, and on the decision to continue work after the first childbirth. Identification of these impacts is based on a Japanese reform that was initially mandated for firms with 101 employees. My results, using a linear probability fixed effect model, showed that probability of first childbirth as well as the intention of having children increased for those working at firms with 101 or more employees, as compared with those at smaller, non-mandated firms, immediately after the reform. The result showed that increased flexibility in work hours along with job protection is relevant for fertility and fertility intention. Work continuation after the first childbirth was not affected by the short-hour option mandate, but increased significantly from 2007 to 2010. There was increased cash transfer in the form of parental leave allowance in 2007 and in 2010. Present leave policy covers mostly the permanent employees and not the termed and hourly employees which comprise about one-half of the unmarried female population, causing concern about the replacement of protected by non-protected employment. We also found that less than half of permanent employees and full-time termed employees have any child by age 35 to 36, though the intention of having children is comparatively high, signifying the need for further improvement in their family-friendly work environment.

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This paper investigates transition to marriage among Japanese women by considering different places of meeting of couples. The previous studies have analyzed the timing and the determinants of transition to marriage by assuming that it is characterized as a single transition where the unmarried status is assumed to be an origin state and the married status is assume to be a single destination state. This paper takes a different approach by assuming that a marriage is to be likely to occur at different age intervals and has different determinants depending upon different places of meeting of couples. To empirically implement this approach, this paper takes competing risks framework where marriage hazard rate is specified as function of age and determinants for each of different places of meeting. The assumed categories for places are "meeting in workplace," "meeting through friends," "meeting at school," "meeting through internet or mobile phone," and "otherwise." The analysis using the Japanese Life Course Panel Survey obtains the following results. First, the relationship between likelihood of marriage and age is variable depending upon different place of meeting. Marriage through "meeting at school" is likely to occur in the narrowest age interval. And marriage through "meeting through internet or mobile phone" is likely to occur at later ages than those through meeting in other places. Secondly, marriage through different place of meeting has different determinants. The three first job characteristics, i.e., employment status, firm size, and hours worked only affect marriage through "meeting in workplace." Having college education or more promotes transition to marriage through "meeting at school," while it hinders marriage through "meeting in workplace" and "meeting through friends."

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The purpose of this paper is that in order to elucidate the cause of the tendency to marry later or not marry, to investigate whether the type of employment affects the marital experience of man. It examines, applying the method of logistic regression to data drawn from Employment Status Survey by Ministry of internal affairs and communications. We hypothesized that upon selection of a marriage partner, to observe the signal that indicates the future income of men and women decide to get married on the basis of it. These are considered as a signal of future income of men that form of employment (regular employment of non-regular employment), that of first job, educational background or job changing. Based on the hypothesis, we analyzed which factors affect the rate of marital experience and how the effects of the factors vary by age group. The conclusions derived from the analysis are as follows. (1) To be a regular employment that is his signal of future income increases the probability of marriage of men through all age groups. (2) For the generation that graduated from the university after the collapse of the bubble economy, the employment patterns of first job was atypical reduces the probability of marriage experience. On the other hand, in previous generations it has no significant effect. (3) In the twenties and thirties, educational background is not effective as a signal of future income. And higher education is promoting the tendency to delay marriage of men.

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