This paper is aimed to clarify the internal connection between biological reproduction of human life and economic reproduction. In the economic analysis, the terms of 'reproduction of population' are ordinarily used instead of biological reproduction. However, the author here used the latter expression because he would like to notice the phenomena that the human being has maintained the renewal of life as 'seed' beyond individual birth and death and therefore intend to grasp integratedly these facts with the cycle of nature and food reproduction. Such integration has been practically carried on agricultural activities. Namely, annual sowing and harvest in the farm is proceeded according to the seasonal cycle of nature and then human life is inherited from generation to generation by food consumption. However, in an industrialized society, economic reproduction became to consume the large amount of physical resources and natural circumstances such as rivers and the air are polluted. These have given disturbances to the cycle of nature surrounding us. On the other hand, as urbanization advances, the size of families has shifted to be smaller to the minimum core and the functions of upbringing children and caretaking the aged are partially transferred to the society. In the present society, the harmony among the cycle of nature, biological reproduction of human life and economic reproduction is becoming to be broken down. To harmonize these conflictions, we must, the relation between population and the economy, not only as in terms of the reproduction of labor forces engaged in economic activities, but also the biological reproduction of human life as a whole. Here, the author would like to advocate "the recovery of family" in the reconstruction of demographic economics.

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Life expectancy at birth has increased rapidly in Japan until it reached recently a very high level. One of the major reasons is the decrease in mortality rates due to communicable diseases. Attention is now placed on degenerative diseases such as cancer, stroke, heart diseases and so forth. Relationship between changes in life expectancy at birth and per capita national medical expenditure was analyzed. It revealed that the greater the life expectancy, the more additional national medical expenditure per capita. Quality of survival was discussed as an application of survival curves. It was pointed out that a remarkable growth in life expectancy at birth in Japan is due mainly to the increased survival of more or less sick people. The life expectancy at birth in an advanced nation like Japan is now losing its adequacy in terms of an indicator of levels of health.

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Nous trouvons l'idee de M. Sauvy sur le sujet ci-dessus dans ses plusieurs ouvrages; "Theorie generale de la population", "La montee des jeunnes", "Element de demographie", "Croissance zero?", "La France ridee", etc. Il considere le pessimisme malthusian en critique. C'est parce qu'il dit que "toutes les previsions pessimists, sans exception, ont ete dementies par les evenements". En ce qui concerne France, it explique comme suit; des le debut de 19^e siecle, la natalite de la France a baisse plus fortement que celle de ses pays voisins. On pouvait penser que la croissance plus moderee de la population, les charges moins elevees en ecoles, logement, hopitaux, etc. permettraient un developpement industriel plus accentue, a savoir plus haut niveau de vie. C'est le contraire qui a ete observe: niveau de vie a peu pres identique et retard des industries de point. Quelle est la raison? A l'entendre, une population stationnaire ne peut pas apporter des avantages venant d'une population croissante. Ils sont classes en deux categories. (1) uns des mecanismes proprement economiques, ou reduction des frais generaux par habitant, production en grande serie, division du travail etc., (2) autres de caractere sociologique, la poussee des jeunes generations, l'effet de la difficulte creatrice, etc.

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The present analysis is part of the larger study conducted by the Institute of Population Problems in 1980-83 and deals with bio-demographic factors affecting levels and trend of the Japanese fertility via micro-simulation. The present model was designed to generate age-specific fertility rates and other fertility indices such as marital fertility rates, parity distribution of women, rates of pregnancies and induced and spontaneous abortions. The input bio-demographic variables to the model amounts to 20, out of which 12 variables can be changed of their levels, permitting the researcher to assess the effect of each variable. An additional feature of the present model is its power to make a dynamic simulation. The present model employs 15 different cohorts, each containing 1,000 women at the onset of births. This feature can produce fertility trends over a period of 45 years with changing assumptions. The only rundown of the findings is given as below. 1. The present microsimulation study was able to simulate pretty nicely the trend and level of the Japanese fertility both in cohort and period measures from 1945 to 1982. 2. Once the simulation demonstrates a good fit, it is possible to assess the effect of the change of each variable upon the change of fertility. The study has shown that among the other variables, the high age at first marriage and the low desired fertility are two very important factors in determining the very low fertility among the Japanese women in recent years. 3. By increasing age at marriage in a model cohort by two years during a period of ten years, the period total fertility rate falls very deeply-under the cohort fertility and it takes about 30 years to come back to the cohort level. 4. According to the simulation, the Japanese total fertility rate in the periodic measure would start increasing in the mid-1980s and it would come back to the level of 1.90 by around 1990 or earlier. The course of a swing starts in 1974, bottoms up in 1981, and returnsto 1.9 in 1990.

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In this paper, recent change in regional fertility in Japan is examined by using an improved measure, which is a kind of indirect standardized fertility rate derived from Princeton Indices. The measure has two sets of fertility rates as the standard, that is, age-specific fertility rates (F_i) and age-specific marital fertility rates (Fm_i), both as of 1970 for Japan, and it uses the population of 0 year of age (OP) in place of births. Thus, this fertility measure can be calculated by using census data only. This measure consists of three indices; over-all fertility, marital fertility and proportion married expressed respectively by: C_f=(OP)/(ΣF_iW_i); C_g=(OP)/(ΣFm_iM_i); C_m=(ΣFm_iM_i)/(ΣF_iW_i), where W_i denotes females in age i and M_i does married females in age i, and the relation between indices is shown by C_f=C_g・C_m. Some findings obtained by using those indices mentioned above are as follows: first, fertility (C_f) in Japan has lowered since early 1970. Second, four metropolitan regions, especially Tokyo-Yokohama metropolitan region, have exhibited the greatest decline of C_f and its components, C_g and C_m. Third, however, the farther from the metropolitan regions and the more rural the regions are, the more moderate the decline of C_f and the higher the proportion of C_m in its decline are. Fourth, as the reason why the metropolitan regions have experienced the highest decline of fertility during this period, it is considered that after the demographic-transition was over, fertility in those regions turned to slight rise, and again it reversed when the economic growth slowed down, while fertility in rural regions has kept low level because the demographic transition in those regions just ended around around 1970.

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It is expected that family support for the aged will become a social problem with the arrival of the "aging scoiety". As is widely known, the problem includes following three aspects; 1) financial support; 2) emotional support, and 3) physical supports such as assistance in. ADL (activities in daily life). The family support for the aged with these three aspects seems to be deeply related to the living arrangement of the families. Family support for the aged in the aging society will undergo a considerable change dependirig on whether the Japanese will continue to adopt "stem family system" or shift to predominantly "conjugal family system". Therefore, the arrival of the "aging society" and family, being closely related, is the subject of practical studies. This paper introduces family problems in the aging society by going into various prior studies such as "theory of conjugal family system", "the theory of stem family system" and "the theory of modified stem family system". Further in an effort to establish a family image in the aging society, the paper discusses the statistical data concerning the family patterns in Japan with reference to these views. The present study revealed that different family patterns are inherent to some districts; inclination toward stem family in districts as Yamagata Prefecture and that toward conjugal family system in others as Kagoshima Prefecture. It is rather difficult to expect such heterogeneous family patterns will assimilate in the near future. Then, it may be presumable that families in Japan do not converge to any of the above views, but rather that these patterns peculiar to a different district will continue to coexist. From such standpoint, the paper proposes that a pattern for supporting the aged must be established in each district to its inherent features.

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