After World War II, Japan experienced a huge population migration from the non -metropolitan area to the metropolitan area. During the high economic growth period in the 1960s, the number of net in-migrants into the three metropolitan regions was about 400,000 every year.However, the number of net-in-migrants decreased rapidly during the 1970s.This phenomenon is called the migration turnaround.The "potential out-migrants" hypothesis suggested by Itoh (1984) is one of the important hypotheses pointing out that demographic transition causes turnaround in migration. This study aims at re-examining this hypothesis to clarify its validity and limitations by focusing on differences among regions and cohorts. In this study,potential successor and sufficiency of successor are calculated for the four 5-year cohorts born in the 1950s and 1960s. Potential successor identifies the remaining population scale and sufficiency of successor is the rate of potential successor and cohort population. Sufficiency of successor can be used to analyze when and where population outflow exceeds potential out-migrants and how large its scale is.The study also includes parents'migration and their death as additional factors for potential successor to analyze how these factors influence the validity of the hypothesis. The results show that the hypothesis is valid with significance only in the 5-year cohort of the first half of the 1950s. In the three 5-year cohorts since the latter half of the 1950s, its validity is weaker for the younger cohort.Additionally,the difference of sufficiency of successor exists among prefectures in the non-metropolitan area.Lastly,by including the factors of parent's migration and their death,it is verified that parents had migrated to the suburb or surroundings of the metropolitan area and that because of this,potential successor in the non-metropolitan area decreased.

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This research analyzed the effects of demographic change on industrial structure in terms of capital accumulation, revealing that demographic change considerably affects capital accumulation, which plays an important role in transforming the industrial structure. We combined the overlapping generations model formulated by Kinugasa and Mason (2007) and the general equilibrium growth accounting model of Yamaguchi (1973, 1982, 2001)for simulating the effects of demographic change on agricultural and nonagricultural outputs, labor, and capital.The effect of demographic change,particularly changes in the number of children,adult longevity,and child survival rate,on capital growth was analyzed using the overlapping generations model. Further, we investigated the effect of capital growth on agricultural and non-agricultural outputs and inputs using the general equilibrium growth accounting model. The present study's simulation analysis conducted using Japanese data revealed that a rapid decline in the number of children and a rapid increase in adult longevity stimulated capital accumulation and increased the importance of nonagricultural constituents from the 1960s to the 1990s. Simulated capital growth not only increased non-agricultural output and capital to a greater extent than it did the corresponding agricultural constituents, and increased non-agricultural labor and decreased agricultural labor.In recent years,there has been a decrease in the working age population,which comprises people whose savings are normally higher than those of the other generations though the adult longevity in Japan had moderately increased ; hence,we cannot expect a rapid increase in aggregate capital in the future. Therefore, the advantages of the nonagricultural sector in Japan could disappear, and agriculture could become increasingly important in the near future.

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In Germany,TFR stagnate at below replacement level ranging from 1.3 to 1.6 with some fluctuation for over 30 years.Any arguments and policies to promote births ware tabooed due to nightmare memories about pronatalistic policies,which accompanied racial discrimination under the Nazi regime.For this reason,the basic standpoint for family policy is that the government should be responsible for family according to constitutional prescription but act only in a subsidiary function to marriage and family and avoid any intervention in individual affairs. However, this political attitude began to be revised under the first Schroder SPD government and Renate Schmidt was inaugurated as the federal minister of Families, Seniors,Women and Youth,and it came to emphasize the importance of the family policy which focused on the population problem. This new wave of family policy change was taken over also to a large coalition government with the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) born by the federal elections in 2005, and becomes fruitful as the 7th family report (the rough mapping 2005, definite version 2006)and the new policy measures are beginning to be implemented one after another,such as the revision of the promotion law for construction of childcare centers,the introduction of a parents allowance (Elterngeld), "house of many generations" project, etc.. This paper focuses on this recent drastic change of family policy in Germany.We analyze its demographic backgrounds and show the new policy measures and their expected effects. The important topics of this paper are: 1. As for fertility, in 30 years long stagnation of TFR, Germany became far behind Scandinavian, Anglo-Saxon countries and other EU members. Remarkable recovery of TFR in neighboring-country France is seemed to be especially a big shock for Germany. 2.The childlessness of Germany is increasing and according to the recent research,one per three German women could be childless at a whole life.In addition,the average number of desired children is decreasing to 1.75 in women and 1.59 in men at age 20-49, clearly lower than reproduction level. 3. The 10th population projection of the Federal Statistics Bureau (medium variant) has presupposed that the decrease in total population would be started in 2012 but has been realized since 2003. In Germany,while the number of birth decreases further because of the post baby boomer parents,the increase in the number of death is also expected by the aging society, a long-term population reduction is not avoidable, like Japan. 4. According to the time scenario for TFR in future by Hans Bertram, the leader of the experts team compiled the 7th family report, TFR could be increased from 1.34 in 2003 to 1.64 by 2017 and return to 1.57 by 2037, and go into a stationary state,if the new policy measures could effectively stop the postponement of first birth timing and shift down about one-year earlier.

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