ABSTRACT : The storm surge hazard maps released by the Japanese government are predicted based on scenario-based deterministic methods, but there is little accumulation of studies on probabilistically-evaluated inundation maps. By probabilistically evaluating possible strengths and paths of typhoons, it is expected that the storm surge risk with return periods in each region would be estimated, including the area considered to be low risk in the conventional evaluation method. In this study, typhoon data projected by the probabilistic typhoon model are used to estimate distributions of storm surge height with the return period in Tokyo Bay. First, the storm surges for the period of 10,000 years are calculated by an empirical formula and the top 200 typhoons are extracted. Secondly, the extracted typhoons are analyzed by a coupled model of surge, wave and tide (SuWAT) to estimate the distributions of inundation depth. Finally, the obtained inundation depths are rearranged for each mesh, and the depth distribution for each return period is estimated.
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