Background: The TRISS method, which is generally used for predicting trauma patient outcomes, was produced based on North American trauma cases. For Japanese patients, the model might be improved by specification to cases in Japan. The TRISS method predicts patient outcomes with five items, including systolic blood pressure (SBP). However, the prediction can not accommodate hospital patients who have abnormally high SBP on arrival.
Aim: We assess the influence of SBP on some outcome prediction models and assign a new score to achieve better outcome prediction for patients with high SBP.
Material and methods: We used data from the Japanese Trauma Data Bank (JTDB) of blunt trauma cases recorded with no missing items during 2004-2009 (n=22,283). We used a modified score that assigns a score of 2 to cases with SBP higher than 180 mmHg to produce outcome prediction models using these new scores. The accuracy and AUC of models using the TRISS method, prediction outcome model with a conventional TRISS score, the proposed method, and a generalized additive model were assessed. Data from The National Trauma Data Bank (n=1,078,289) were used for comparison with JTDB data.
Results: The survival rate curve with respect to SBP in JTDB showed a peak at 120 mmHg. Comparison between JTDB and NTDB revealed that the survival rate of Japanese trauma cases with high SBP values is lower than that for North American cases. Validation testing showed that the TRISS method and outcome prediction model with a TRISS score are insufficient to predict outcomes for blunt trauma patients with high SBP values. That tendency was not apparent for NTDB cases.
Discussion: Results suggest that Japanese trauma cases are more closely related to head injury and aging. Complex prediction models exhibit good performance, but their practical use demands careful examination. The proposed method might be useful for Japanese patients with high SBP.
Conclusion: Scoring of the TRISS model in Japan can be improved for cases with high SBP values.
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