We developed a comprehensive econometric model to study the long-term outlook of China Shaanxi’s economy, energy and environment to 2030. Our projections under the reference scenario indicated that Shaanxi’s GDP growth will be over 8.7% annually between 2012 and 2030, and total primary energy consumption will double by 2030. The continuation of rapid economic growth could result in a lot of difficulties for energy development, environment protection, and CO₂ emissions reductions. For the sustainable development, more comprehensive strategies should be adopted, including development of renewable energy with highest priority, improvement in energy efficiency and automobile fuel efficiency, etc. However, substantial governmental involvements and support, as well as the establishment of a regulatory framework are necessary.

抄録全体を表示

Recently, it has been a great concern that the installation of a large number of renewable energy generators e.g. wind turbines, photovoltaic generators (PVs), etc., causes various negative impacts to electric power systems at distribution networks. As for PV installations in Japan, a general customer’s installation of PVs on the roof top is connected to the distribution networks. It is almost impossible to figure out if a specific individual will install a PV and if s/he does when. This paper proposes an estimation method for customers’ actions towards other customers’ PV installations. The point of the proposed method is to assess the circumstance through seeing if a customer will decide to install a PV when s/he recognizes the neighbors’ PV installations. This study applies a decision tree to simulate for customers’ decision-making on PV installations. Additionally, it calculates the PV installation transitions to distribution networks using the proposed method. The simulation results show verification of the proposed method.

抄録全体を表示

The introduction of clean energy vehicles (CEVs) is expected to reduce CO₂ emissions in the transportation sector. However, because each CEV has different internal structures compared to gasoline vehicles, the popularization of each CEV type provides different impacts on three dimensions: industry, consumer, and the environment. Therefore, it is important to analyze the optimal portfolio of CEVs in making an effective policy for the introduction of CEVs. Most conventional studies do not consider economic impacts on the industry, nor do they comprehensively consider the interests of the three dimensions generated by the increased use of CEVs. Thus, this paper proposes a new multi-objective optimization model that considers the utilities of all three dimensions.
The simulation results show the optimal portfolios in 2030 for each dimension across all scenarios of technological innovation. For example, in unit sales of passenger vehicles in the standard scenario, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and fuel cell vehicles account for approximately 90% when the utility of industry aspect is prioritized. In contrast, the introduction of electric vehicles accounts for approximately 50% when the utility of consumer aspect is prioritized. Also, PHEVs play an important role particularly when the utility of environment aspect is prioritized.

抄録全体を表示

The capacity of conventional hydropower plants has increased by approximately 5 GW since the 1970s, but the electricity output has not increased so much in Japan. This paper discusses historical trends and future outlook of conventional hydropower output. Specifically, we analyze the effect of “aging of facilities” on the average operating hours of conventional hydropower plants. We conducted regression analyses and obtained the following results. The coefficients related to time factor are negative in all the regression period. In other words, average operating hours are decreasing in line with aging. We analyzed the future outlook of power output from conventional hydropower based on the estimated coefficient. We assumed that a renovation case and a reference case which had no renovation of old power plants. The result of the reference case shows that the output of conventional hydropower in 2030 would be 7.0 TWh lower than the average output in the 2000’s. If old power plants are renovated, it could improve their output by 10TWh compared to the reference case in 2030. The results indicate that careful monitoring and renovation would be important to maintain the output of hydropower in the long term.

抄録全体を表示

Psychological measure is needed to promote daily energy saving behaviors. However, energy saving behaviors are not only determined by an intentional route but also an unintentional route. The field experiment was conducted to examine an psychological measure of eco-friendly priming to induce energy saving behaviors unconsciously for the unintentional intervention approach. In the study, half of participants were primed with energy saving by the associated image poster (i.e. priming condition), and the others were not primed because a non-associated image poster was used (i.e. control condition). The level of energy saving behaviors, behavioral intentions, and behavioral willingness were measured in the pre and post manipulation at intervals of two weeks. The results showed that energy saving behaviors were increased in the priming condition. Although behavioral intention was unchanged in both the priming and control conditions, the eco-friendly priming changed behavioral willingness. This finding was discussed in the possibility that the psychological measure of eco-friendly priming could promote behaviors unintentionally.

抄録全体を表示