The Japanese government announced its mid-term target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 26% from 2013 to 2030 at COP21. In Japan, CO
2 emissions from the transport sector account for 18.5% of total CO
2 emissions, and it is necessary to implement measures in the automobile sector as soon as possible. In this study, we developed a model for estimating CO
2 emissions that takes into account integrated measures in the automobile sector up to the year 2050. Global warming measures in the automobile sector to be considered in this model include the improvement of fuel efficiency of conventional vehicles, diffusion of next-generation vehicles, diffusion of automated driving (including eco-drive effects), improvement of traffic flow, and diffusion of car sharing. Using the developed model, and assuming several scenarios studied by the authors, the effects of technological progress in automobiles and the effects of measures that may be introduced in the future are considered.
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