According to the 2020 annual publication “Current State of First-Aid and Rescue”, the survival rate of patients with Out-of-Hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) who were rescued by Automated External Defibrillators (AED) was 4.5 times higher than those who were not treated appropriately. On the other hand, the report indicated that the rate of AED implementation by witness (bystanders) for OHCA was only 5.1% . Meanwhile, drones have been evaluated as the means of delivering medical equipment and goods. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of developing AED drone network by a model analysis.
Assumed that the fire stations in Ibaraki Prefecture the drone bases, a decision tree model using Utstein data from 2008 to 2012 was conducted. jSTAT MAP with the national census data was used for the model analysis. The costs included in this study were the drone network infrastructure initial and maintenance fees, the drone purchase and maintenance fees, the mobile network fees, and the pilot labor cost. The discount rate was set as 2.0% per year.
As the base case from this model analysis, by considering the weather conditions and the population coverage, 254.05 QALYs were additionally obtained in the environment where the drone network would be available. The total cost was calculated as 1,632,527,863 JPY, and therefore ICER resulted in 6,425,928 JPY per 1 QLAY. The sensitivity analysis showed that when one-month survival rates with AED were set to 0.350, 0.411, and 0.550 and drone-delivered AED defibrillation rates by bystanders were set from 0.20 to 0.90, ICERs were 18,432,545 to 4,096,121 JPY, 15,004,541 to 3,334,342 JPY, and 10,538,521 to 2,341,893 JPY, respectively.
The result does not demonstrate that the drone network to deliver AED can be cost-effective for exceeding 5 million JPY as ICER, which is categorized as no price adjustment is required, set by Central Social Insurance Medical Council. However, it might be worthy enough to consider the deployment of AED drone network by carefully looking at the increase of AED defibrillation rate by bystander, the reduction of the initial cost and the possibility of the flight under the rain condition by the technological advances, the reduced number of the existing AEDs, and the non-dedicated pilot assignments. In the future, as the effectiveness and the safety of AED delivery by drones are developed, discussions on legislation about AED drone network are expected to be facilitated accordingly
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