Prediction of the number of outpatient prescriptions with the passage of time in an ambulatory-care pharmacy was examined. Data from our university hospital for 1989-1990 are used to predict the number of outpatient prescriptions. A simple forecasting method that provides a way for pharmacy manager and outpatients to estimate waiting time is presented.
Based on the ratio of the number of outpatient prescriptions to the number of outpatients and the coefficient of canceled appointments by outpatients and so on in each clinical department, the forecasting equations are established as follows:
ψ
1-(α
i·b-α
i·a·γ
1) ·δ
1_??_
ψ: expected number of outpatient prescriptions with the passage of time
ψ
i: expected number of outpatient prescriptions in i-th clinical department
α
i·a: the number of outpatients in i-th clinical department at 8:30
α
i·b: the number of outpatients in i-th clinical department at 11:00 or 17:00
β: the ratio of the number of outpatient prescriptions of the all clinical departments except for clinical departments shown in table 3 (δ and γ) to that of all clinical departments
γ
i: the coefficient of canceled appointments by outpatients in i-th clinical department
δ
i: the ratio of the number of outpatient prescriptions to the number of outpatients in i-th clinical department
It is possible to estimate the number of outpatient prescriptions with the passage of time using hospital information service about the number of outpatients (α
i·a and α
i·b). First, the expected number of outpatient prescriptions was calculated by the forecasting equations at 11: 00.Secondary, the expected number of outpatient prescriptions was added a constant value depending on the number of outpatient prescription at 11: 00. For example, on Thursday, if the number of outpatient prescription (Rp.#) at 11: 00 is less than Rp.270 or more than Rp.#350, the expected number of outpatient prescriptions minus 50 or plus 50 is the final expected number of outpatient prescriptions, respectively.
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