「サイコ･ナショナリズム」は、現在の中東地域において不安定要因を形成する主要な要因であり、それは排他的な国民意識の核となる集団的自己意識の半ば意図的に捏造された発明品である。本論は中東イスラーム世界における哲学的議論の豊かな蓄積―イブン･ハルドゥーンの政治学的･社会学的考察を含む―の上に、近年盛んに行われているアイデンティティー政治学の宗派主義･部族主義的な分析枠組みの脱構築を意図している。本論ではまずアラブ世界およびイラン世界における「想像的共同体」の具体的な構成要素に検討を加えたうえ、とりわけ中東地域においては人間集団間の長期的な混交と相互依存構築という歴史的な経験を踏まえた理性的な対話･交渉による関係の構築が地域的平和の実現のための不可欠の要件であることを確認する。

現代史の殆どの期間、共和国体制のエジプトと南に隣接するスーダンは緊張関係にあった。それはエジプトとスーダンの支配者の政治志向の違いや、中東･北アフリカ（MENA）地域内での対立するブロックとの連携に起因していた。物質的･観念的および外交的な資源と影響力により、そして自らの政治的目標の追求のために、エジプトはスーダンや他のナイル川流域国家の行動を抑制し左右することができていた。それはとりわけエジプトの国家的存在と繁栄が依存するナイル川の水資源の利用に関わる問題について顕著にみられた。しかしながら中東およびアフリカの角における地域的･国内的な変動、とりわけ2011年以降の同地域の地政的な変化により、エジプトのスーダンに対する影響力は顕著に後退し、水資源を巡る新たな政治力学はスーダンをナイル河畔における地政的アクターとして登場させるに至っている。スーダンはかつてナイル川の水問題ではエジプトの忠実なパートナーであったが、現在では上流の国家との連携関係やナイル川の水資源の自国での利用についてより柔軟な立場を主張するようになっている。

本論は以上のような文脈でエジプト･スーダン関係を歴史的に回顧し、また2011年以降の中東およびアフリカの角地域の地政的な変動を概観しようとするものである。エジプトのスーダンおよび他のナイル川流域国家に対する影響力の低下の要因は、(1)エジプト国内の不安定化および中東地域全体への影響力の低下、(2)同国の体制維持と国内安定化のために地域の主要国にさらに依存するようになっている事、そして(3)同国のナイル川流域における覇権の喪失に拠ることを議論する。

Although Egypt’s social security system became obsolete in the 1990s, it was the Sisi administration that launched the major reform. The social security system was restructured along with the implementation of the bold macro-economic reform. As a result, the new social security plan can cover a much bigger population than what the old system could, despite a chronic fiscal deficit. The purpose of this paper is to examine the state of the social security reform in Egypt since 2014 and discuss its sustainability. The paper reviews the developments of the new cash transfer programs as well as the rebuilding of the social insurance system. While the new social security scheme is well-designed and is highly reputed, administrative capabilities will be a major challenge.

From the beginning of the Trump administration, the U.S. military presence in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries has rapidly evolved. Specifically, the number of U.S. Air Force soldiers stationed in Qatar, United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait has been significantly reduced. This may be a result of President Trump’s preference to minimize the level of U.S. troops deployed in the region. Conversely, the United States has maintained its naval presence in the gulf, including an aircraft carrier strike group and naval troops in Bahrain. In the same period, Iran has remarkably expanded its military capabilities after developing sophisticated new missile systems, drones, and submarines. Combined with recent hostile events in the gulf, this situation has heightened concerns about gulf security, in particular, to ensure the safe passage of crude oil destined for all parts of the world. Current tension may lead to an escalated presence of U.S. forces in the region.

India’s status in the world has been elevated since the beginning of this century, supported by its accelerated economic growth. In order to grow from a regional to world power, the foreign policy of a nation needs to be adapted to the new circumstances. In this context, the new relations between India and the Middle East attract our attention. We must also consider the repercussions of domestic politics on the subject, particularly since the advent of the BJP government under Narendra Modi in 2014.

Ever since the BJP government came to power in 2014, India has begun to question the assumptions of political principles such as “secularism,” established under the Congress party government since the country’s independence in 1947. The new orientations could be termed as a paradigm change or a watershed in the political framework in the history of independent India. In the domestic field, the BJP government challenges the Indian “secularism” and pursues a sort of “ethnic democracy,” a concept introduced in Israel. Concerning its foreign policies India is gradually discarding its use of the traditional non-alignment principle and pursues a combination of multiple alliances taking into account the rising influence of China.

The ruling party, BJP, is the political wing of the RSS, an influential Hindu right-wing ss organization promoting Hinduism as the national identity of the Indian nation. The BJP and RSS particularly target the Muslim community in their campaign to promote “Hindutva,” a Hinduized national integration concept. The Indian “secularism” traditionally emphasizes equal consideration of every religious community in India. However, the Modi government in 2019 annulled the constitutional clauses that guaranteed special allowances to the Jammu and Kashmir state with Muslim majority and introduced an amendment to the citizenship law which excluded Muslims while considering granting citizenship to illegal refugees.

Under these circumstances, the Modi government pursues three different policies toward the Middle East. The first policy is to promote trade and investment, primarily from the viewpoint of mutual economic interests. India’s dealings with the Gulf countries and East Africa are typical cases where the Modi government employs this policy. The second policy is to enhance India’s regional dominance and neutralize any interventions from neighboring Muslim countries in India’s domestic policies concerning the Muslim citizens in the country. The third policy is a newly emerged special relationship with Israel, which has strategic, technological, and ideological implications in the reorganization of power structure in the South West Asia.