Japan’s food self-sufficiency rate has been declining rapidly, and is the lowest among developed countries today. The regional food self-sufficiency rate differs across prefectures. This research investigates the determinants of prefectural food self-sufficiency rates, the comparative advantage of agriculture to non-agriculture, and several variables regarding the agricultural production structure in Japan. We established some simultaneous equation models with ten endogenous and ten exogenous variables that take into consideration the interdependency among variables. According to the empirical results, the prefectural food self-sufficiency rate is positively and significantly influenced by the comparative advantage of agriculture, total agricultural output, and the number of tractors per agricultural labor. We also calculate the growth rate multiplier of each endogenous variable with respect to each exogenous one based on the empirical results. The results show that the increases in ratio of agricultural land in prefectural land area, the aggregate agricultural capital, and the number of tractors per agricultural labor have positive effects on agricultural food self-sufficiency. It also suggests that the increases in the number of tractors per agricultural labor and the ratio of agricultural land in prefectural land area improve the comparative advantage of agriculture. In conclusion, it would be essential for Japanese prefectures to expand agricultural land and promote agricultural mechanization effectively as much as possible in order to increase their food self-sufficiency.

View full abstract

[in Japanese]

View full abstract

[in Japanese]

View full abstract