Objective: The present study aimed to examine whether or not the physical fitness self-evaluation scale (PSE) can be used to predict long-term fall-related risks in the elderly, as well as the reliability and validity of the scale. Methods: In 1996 and 2011, cohort surveys were conducted involving (1,095) elderly people aged 60 years or older living in Village T, adjacent to a large city in the Chubu region of Japan. Data on 288 people who participated in both the 1996 and 2011 surveys were analyzed. Survey items included PSE, fall-related items, Tokyo Metropolitan Institute of Gerontology Index of Competence (TMIG-IC), Index of Social Interaction (ISI), and exercise habits. The internal consistency of the scale was also examined by calculating Cronbach's coefficient alpha to assess its reliability. Partial rank correlation analysis was then conducted to examine the criterion-related validity. Results: The reliability of the scale was high: Cronbach's coefficient alpha was 0.90. For males, partial correlation functions with the PSE at baselines were 0.227 for the fall rate (p<.05), 0.375 for the TMIG-IC (p<.01), 0.329 for the ISI (p<.01), and 0.339 for the exercise habits (p<.01). Secondly, for females, significant but weak partial correlations were noted between the PSE in 1996 and fall-related items of the 2011 scale. Regarding the measurement of physical fitness in 2011, there were significant partial correlations between the present scale and PSE for maximum stride (males: 0.314, p<.05) and 5-m walking (females: -0.304, p<.01). Conclusion: The PSE did not show adequate effectiveness from the viewpoint of the validity of the scale to predict fall-related risks. However, the survey results suggest that PSE may serve as a useful scale to evaluate long-term support and intervention programs for fall prevention and their directions.
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