The measurement of subjective probability distribution has shown a marked revival of interest recently primarily due to the following two factors: the first is the advancement in the research of cognitive schemata that produce subjective probability judgements, typically represented by the works of Tversky and Kahneman, and the second is the growing concern in the practical use of experts' probabilistic judgements concerning the occurrences of uncertain events, like in meteorological forecasts, where no strictly formal methods of probabilistic inferences can be applied. As being one of the few who had deeply been involved in the initial stage of technological developments in the arts of measuring subjective probability distributions, the present author describes in this paper the three major classes of measuring methods, i. e., direct numerical statements, scoring rules and the two-person gomes, in addition to his comments on the nature of subjective probability with a special reference to the inplications of calibration curves.
This paper proposes a behavioral approach to the so-called, “ free rider problem” in public economics, through the enhancement of “ public consciousness ” of people. Experiments were done to investigate how impact of two factors, urgency and causality, public consciousness to decreace the number of free rides. Analyzing subjects' judgements, it was found that the strong cognition of the two factors made fewer free-riders the weak cognition, and that the strong cognition of causality was transferable to the other situation in which people can recognize only weak causality. Finally, some of practical applications of these factors are also discussed.
Item relational structuring methods are construction methods of digraph structure among items, based on1-0item response patterns. POSA(Partial Order Scalogram Analysis), OT(Ordering Theory), IRS(Item Relational Structure)analysis et al. belong to it em relational structuring methods. This paper discusses fundamental concepts and t heoretical investigation among these item relational structuring methods.
This paper deals with the program package for compartmental analysis called VACS(Versatile Analyser for Compartmental Systems). A compartmental system has been widely used as a mathematical model for studying the dynamical behavior of systems in biology, medicine and ecology. This package VACS has the following functions in addition to the usual system identification: the examination of structural identifiability, realizability and reachability and the calculation of the optimal control sequence. Reflecting physical constraints in itself, a compartmental system has such a property that the state is always nonnegative for any nonnegative input. These constraints make the examinations on structural identifiability, relaizability and reachability fundamental in order to confirm the varidity of a mathematical model and an experimental design used for a compartmental analysis. These problems have not been solved for general compartmental systems yet, therefore systems must be examined one by one using numerical procedure. VACS, which has the functions for these examinations, will be useful for compartmental analysis.
In utitizing the PARAFAC model, when Dr. Harshman' s program is used, there seems to be too many steps involved in leading to the optimum solution. In order to avoid such complexities and difficulties, Dr. Hayashi has suggested that different, more fool proof method be used. A comparison was made between these two methods using data about the physical constitution of children. The results showed that these two methods yielded two different solutions. Yet the solution from Dr. Hayashi' s method was found to be much more under standable than from Dr. Harshman' s method.