Journal of the Japan Institute of Energy

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As the first commitment period of Kyoto protocol comes nearer, Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) attracts more and more attention to economically reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In this paper, we investigated how to quantify and to manage risks in CDM. Since management of project risks is crux of this paper, real option theory is applied to evaluate CDM projects, so that we could quantitatively compute the option values. Namely, a mathematical model of CDM was represented with a compound rainbow option, which includes continuous procedures from registration to investment. The evaluated results identified the condition of profitability, in which investment as CDM are feasible. Our evaluation also quantified how the execution of CDM became difficult by the registration risk and the post-2012 risk. Then we investigated the effect of CER procurement by government. Based on actual financial data on CDM, we finally investigated how the risks and the governmental policy influence the number of executable CDM.

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High temperature air-blown gasification experiment of woody biomass was conducted in an entrained down-flow type gasifire. Air was blown as the gasifying agent instead of oxygen to improve the gasification process performance. To archive the higher temperature (over 1273 K), pulverized wood was used as the feed stock of gasification experiment. Air-blown gasification process was evaluated by measuring temperature in the gasifire and produced gas composition against O/C ratio. Carbon to gas conversion, cold gas efficiency and heating value of produced gas in an air-blown gasification experiment was also calculated. These gasification behaviors were compared with that in oxygen-blown gasification experiment. It was found that gasification process with air could be performed as well as gasification with oxygen.

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