To examine the characteristics of public opinion on social media and the benefits of analyzing it, we reported the analysis of the 5 million tweets posted in 2020 on then Prime Minister Abe Shinzo in the last month issue of this journal. In that paper, we deduced Twitter users’ attitudes towards Mr. Abe, whether they supported him or not, using the method of sentiment analysis with supervised learning (SL). The analysis found that nearly 80% of the tweets we analyzed were classified as expressing negative attitudes towards Mr. Abe and revealed a large deviation from the Cabinet approval rate found in a public opinion survey. Following these findings, the study to be reported in this issue investigates the characteristics of public opinion on Twitter and the benefits of exploring it, by analyzing in detail the 5 million tweets that were used for the previous issue, employing a topic model analysis that can extract topics from tweet texts.
Among multiple methods of topic modeling, we used Gibbs Sampling Dirichlet Multinomial Mixture (GSDMM), a method suitable for short texts. As a result of the analysis, 25 topics were extracted, of which the topics related to COVID-19 accounted for 28%, and the topics related to political allegations/scandals for 24%. Looking at the distribution of sentiments, negative opinions about Mr. Abe constituted the large majority for most of the topics, but for the topics “diplomacy,” “criticism against Mr. Abe and countercriticism of those critics,” and “response to the news of his resignation,” about 20% were positive opinions. While the topics related to political allegations/scandals surged only for a short time and tended to be posted repeatedly by a relatively small number of accounts, the topics related to COVID-19 persisted for more than one month and were mentioned by a relatively large number of accounts.
The majority of Twitter users’ attitudes towards Mr. Abe were disapproval of him, but the classification of the tweets into different topics showed a mixture of two types: topics that were enthusiastically posted and retweeted by a relatively small number of accounts, represented by topics related to political allegations/scandals and topics mentioned by a relatively large number of accounts with negative opinions, such as “state of emergency declaration” and “Abenomask”—masks distributed free of charge to all households by the government.
The analysis of Twitter data allows us to capture the public opinion on topics on which people have a strong onion and are enthusiastic enough to proactively express their views, unlike opinions measured by conventional questionnaires and responded because “I was asked to.” As this study used a topic analysis and a sentiment analysis, the combination of methods makes it possible to examine the transition of people’s interests and passions, as well as their diversity and the changes occurring depending on the situation. This is presumably one of the benefits of Twitter post analysis.
As described above, public opinions that expressed on Twitter are qualitatively different from those grasped by conventional public opinion surveys. It is important to understand the characteristics, advantages, and limitations of opinions perceived in public opinion surveys and those perceived in Twitter analysis, respectively, and use them to complement each other. This will give a more multifaceted understanding of public opinion.
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