Accurate performance of short-term load forecasting is indispensable in order to avoid undesirable disturbances in power system operations. To this end，the authors have developed forecasting methods of this type based on conventional chaos theory. However, this approach is unable to provide accurate forecasts in cases of anomalous loads where the loads consecutively exceed the historical maximum or are lower than the minimum. This paper presents an improved forecasting method based on chaos theory and a real-time forecasting system. In particular, the potential of the Local Reconstruction Method is fully exploited in order to achieve as accurate a forecast as possible. The effectiveness of the proposed method and the real-time load forecasting system is verified by the actual load at The Chugoku Electric Power Co.

View full abstract

Electrostatic capacity C and internal resistance R are two most important parameters that characterize the electric behavior of EDLC （electric double layer capacitor）. Since the charge and discharge characteristic of EDLC depends on the product of R and C，RC，an appropriate representation of the equivalent circuit of EDLC becomes very important. Previously we developed an equivalent circuit model taking account of pseudo capacitance. Following this circuit model, we came to have an assumption that if the volume and width of the used material of EDLC are kept constant，then a shorter and thicker EDLC might have a relatively larger C and smaller R，that is a favorable feature as a power storage device. To verify this supposition，we have made various experiments on the three different shapes of EDLCs in terms of length and thickness，while the volume and width of these EDLCs are kept constant. In this paper，we first discuss how the values of R and C depend on the shape of EDLC using a proposed equivalent circuit model and then，comparing the theoretically analyzed results with those of experiments，we confirm the favorable shape of EDLC with regard to R and C values.

View full abstract

With the increasing use of electricity in the home and information technology oriented society in recent years，there are various electric appliances being implemented in the home. Therefore to design an economical and safe electrical wiring system it is necessary to fully understand the introduction of future electrical appliances，and understand their background for usage. Especially in recent years with the increase in living standards，in both houses and collective housing alike，we see an increase in the number of home electrical appliances and high capacity appliances in line with an improvement of home living. For this reason in order to meet the increasing demand for electricity year by year，it is important to proceed carefully with electrical wiring design. Especially，electric equipment design of medium and high-rise apartments with long durability must be done not by only considering the maximum power demand of each residence's present state，but also consider the future electric power demand trend to correspond to durability of the building. Hence，the collective analysis of the electric power load data based on the long-term view is indispensable to the main line design. To find the progress of each residence's main power line demand factor in collective housing，every several years the Urban Renaissance Agency （former Urban Devlopment Corporation） executes the measurement of the main line current. In this paper we have especially studied 10 main lines which are measured every 5 years to clarify their demand factor progress and its main cause.

View full abstract