Decision-makers, coping with global environmental problems, are plagued with the high uncertainty and expertise. Then assuming states uncertainty reducers, theory of epistemic community (hereafter EP)-a transnational network of experts-argues that EP plays a decisive role in actors' interest perception, (1) when the members have consensual knowledge, and (2) when they are embedded in national bureaucracy. This article, through the study of African elephant trade regulation, shows the limit of EP theory, and discusses the importance of norm to see the effect of scientific knowledge.
Following recommendations of AESG (African Elephant Specialist Group), an epistemic community for African elephant conservation, parties to CITES (Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora) had kept African elephant in Appendix II (hereafter App. II), which obliged traders to submit export permits in importing its products.
However, after COP6, many Western countries, pressed by intense NGOs' campaign, and many range states, concerned about the sharp decline of their elephant populations and its negative impact on tourism industry, began to argue for App. I listing to ban the trade. At COP7 (1989), based on CITES listing criteria, AESG unanimously recommended to keep the sound populations of some Southern African countries in App. II. Nevertheless, parties voted to list all the populations in App. I. They have continuously ignored AESG recommendations till COP9 (1994), nominally in fear of poaching resurge. But, at COP10 (1997), they voted for the downlisting proposals from Southern African countries even though AESG made no recommendation for them.
As mentioned above, at COP7 and thereafter AESG lost its leading role. Unexpectedly not only parties without AESG members embedded but also parties with, systemically ignored the consensual recommendation of AESG till COP9. Then at COP10, they accepted the downlisting proposals without any change in the level of embeddedness.
Why did EP theory lose its explanatory power? In short, it is because decision-makers rarely delegate their authority to the EP members and less eagerly listen to them when the opinion of EP collides with industry's interest and public opinion. In such a conflictive situation EP is to lose its influence, and simple interest-based approach (hereafter IBA) gains explanatory power. This was the case for COP7 to COP9.
While appearing effective in a conflictive situation, EBA cannot explain the COP10 result, because there has been no significant change in instrumental interest of parties since COP7. To answer the COP10 puzzle, I propose a norm-effect hypothesis that the downlisting was made possible as an effect of a norm and rule (a derivative of norm).
To start with, CITES has listing criteria as rules, which are born from conservationism norm on which CITES is founded. Given scientific knowledge, they can tell parties in which Appendices species should be listed. Even though at COP7 they deviated from the criteria, they could still justify it based on a situational logic that App. I listing was required as an “emergent” measure to alleviate the uncontrollable poaching crisis, implying that the ban was still consistent with conservationism norm.
At COP9 South Africa submitted its downlisting proposal which set trade limits to non-ivory product alone, based on the consensual knowledge that for a physical reason non-ivory trade does not arouse poaching. Then parties became not able to maintain the argument against downlisting without relinquishing CITES's conservationism norm by preservationism which denied hunting in principle. Actually they were not a real self-interest seeker beyond the boundary of norm. Therefore at the very COP9 parties showed their clear will to solve the African elephant issue based on the criteria and scientific knowledge at COP10 through inter-COP dialogue meetings.
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