Objective: To analyze the cumulative fraction of patients with AIDS among Japanese hemophiliacs infected with HIV-1.
Material & Methods: The fraction from the beginning of 1983 to the end of March 1994 was computed by utilizing the datafile constructed by the Natural History Committee (abbreviated as NHC) in the Research Committee on Prevention of Developing Illnesses and Therapy for HIV Infected Patients, supported by the Ministry of Health and Welfare of the Japanese Government. A point estimate on October 30, 1997 was made using the data file of the Domestic Surveillance Subcommittee (abbreviated as DSS) affiliated to the Clinical Study Group for Treatments of HIV Disease, supported by the Ministry of Health and Welfare of the Japanese Government.
Results: The cumulative fraction of patients with AIDS at the end of March 1994 was obtained as 27±2% among 837 patients infected with HIV-1 extracted from the NHC data file. The AIDS onset rate was clearly associated with the age at the beginning of 1983 (p<0.001) by Cox's proportional hazard model. According to the data of DSS, thecumulative fraction of patients with AIDS including the number of all death cases was obtained as 44% on October 30, 1997. Since 29% of the death cases were reported without any AIDS-defining conditions, the exact cumulative fraction might be smaller. On the other hand, the prospected cumulative fractions of patients with AIDS were 49 and 46% from the extrapola-tion of Weibull and the log logisticfunction, respectively, using the results from NHC data. Moreover, the average of CD4+ cell counts retrieved from the DSS data dated October 30, 1997 looks higher than the prospected value estimated from the averages of CD4+ cell counts in 1995 and 1996 surveyed by NHC.
Conclusion: These findings suggest the possibility that the time-dependent rate of AIDS onset in Japanese hemophiliacs decreased between 1994 and 1997 compared to the rate before 1994. This may be attributed to the effectiveness of recent advances in therapy, especially with protease inhibitors.
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