The yearly increase or decrease of disease severity on new varieties with various types of resistance was simulated by using the following equations. Let y=the cumulative number of lesions or scattering spores at time t, y
0=y at the initial time of infection, r=infection rate, Y'=the upperlimit of flnal cumulative number of lesions or scattering spores, T=the time at which increase of lesion or spore numbers stops, θ=overwintering rate, k = ( Y'-y
0) /y
0 Then, [numerical formula]where n is the number of years from the release of the variety and y
0, n is the number 0f lesions or scattering spores at the initial time of infection in the n-th year. All parameters required for computation were obtained from the data by KURIBAYASHI and ICHKAWA (1952), and SHlIMOYAMA and his co-workers (unpub1.) on the number of scattering spores measured every year. The effects of true resistance, field resistance and multiline variety were compared by numerical calculation based on the equation and sirnulation by yearly choice of infection rates and overwintering rates from normal random numbers with various means and standard deviations.
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