Japan has enjoyed a high level of performance in R&D because it has been able to use technology to develop practical products. On the issue of improvement of basic research though maintaining the current system could still lead to low performance levels. Therefore, this author proposes to put emphasis o "development research". This means that Japan should make use of the merits of their own identity, which is based on history, habit, and tradition, and is correspondent to personality and nationality. The identity of R&D in Japan derives from a group-oriented character, and consists of collaborative development while that of Europe and the United States derives from an individual-oriented character, and consists mostly of individual research. In the United States, in fact, a lot of individual-oriented activity weakens performance in the development stage where collaboration is most necessary. In Japan, development research is superior to basic research because priority is given to group activities and restrictions are placed on individual activities. This author suggests that the Japan Society for Science Policy and Research Management should focus on creating a plan where basic research will be a group-oriented activity. This is the only way to make use of Japan's original intelligence and enhance our international contribution to R&D management.

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This author has inspected past technological forecasts and compared them to current forecasts, analyzing the differences between the two. Based on these analyses, this article presents ideas and guidelines for technological forecasting. They are as follow:1. Careful consideration of various social factors which prevent the development of technology. This point corresponds with the standard approach, which forecasts technology based on an estimation of social needs I the future. Much of the failure of forecasts is due to the misconception of needs and the lack of will to develop that estimation of the future situation surrounding technology is an important factor in technological forecasting.2. The affect of creative imagination on technological development and social needs. This point corresponds with the explorative approach, which examines the possibility of technological applications. Creative imagination with respect to future social needs makes it possible to forecast technology better.3. Imaginative insights into structural reform in technology and society. This point corresponds to the interaction between the standard approach and the explorative approach based on sound vision. In our society, there are many problems that have strong needs, but get little attention. Interaction between technology and social change will become prevalent in the near future. That is, social problems have increasingly become determinants of technological challenges. Under present circumstances, technological forecasts must always involve subjective vision. In other words, forecasts with vision will be the most reliable ones.

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Technology forecasting is usually based on a forecaster's subjective point of view. On the one hand, the information an individual can colle3ct is relatively limited, on the other hand, the domain of interrelated technologies has expanded so much that the information available has also increased considerably. Recently, therefore, technology forecasting, analyzing technological trends, has been conducted by utilizing science and technology databases. This article describes this method of analysis and the databases the analyses are derived from. It also show some examples of technology forecasting in the field of electronic freezing and other R&D themes that the author has been involved in the planning of.

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The Science and Technology Agency (STA) has done technological forecasting every 5 years since 1971. This has been done using he Delphi method covering almost every field of science and technology. When the government or private company plans and promotes R&D it is necessary to forecast technological trends, therefore, the STA's technological forecast gives important information for the planning and promotion of R&D. This paper outlines the Delphi technological forecasting method using the STA'S technological forecast as an example. This paper also reveals the characteristics and significance of the STA's technological forecasting along with the technique with which the Delphi method is applied to the forecast. The STA's technological forecasting method, in general, is evaluated as well as the limits and capabilities of the Delphi method under these circumstances. How to understand and apply technological forecasting is discussed using the case of a private firm as an example. Finally, the issue of technological forecasting itself is examined.

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The Council on Science and Technology submitted the 18th Basic Policy Perspective, "General Basic Policy of Science and Technology Towards the New Century", to the Prime Minister in January 192. This report will be the basic policy guideline for the Japanese government over the next ten years. During the deliberation process, council members disucussed the following problems at length: i) the structure of Japan's science and technology system - the balance between basic research and applied research -, ii) human resources in the future, iii) operating systems in universities and national laboratories, iv) international contribution. As a results of these discussions, three directives were decided on: i) human beings must be responsible for protecting the earth's environment, ii) enlargement of intellectual stock, iii) working towards achieving affluence in society. To accomplish these three goals, seven policy goals were outline as follows: i) harmony between S&T and human society, ii) development of better human resources in S&T, iii0 expansion of R&D investment, iv) reinforcement of R&D infrastructure, v) initiation of R&D activities and publication of creative accomplishments, vi) intensification of international activities in S&T, vii) promotion of S&T in local areas. Based on these goals, concrete policies with overriding priority are presented.

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This article explains the Core Technology Program of the NEC Corporation, which is based on the concept of systems engineering. Diversification and concentration are the basic concepts of NEC's R&D management strategy. Speciality, organization, location and opportunity all lead to a diversified corporation. That is why NEC's organizational system brings about the diversification of R&D activities. These elements also help to organize the management of projects, enhance communication amongst organizations and help to fit everything into the general business strategy of NEC. The Core Technology Program plays an important role in the planning and management of diversification and concentration. The purpose of the Core Technology Program is to define the technological fields in which technologies should be estabishied in order to contribute to the solid development of the corporation. The program also helps to establish long-term guidelines for R&D in order to endure that these technologies will continue to develop while R&D activities stay within the limits of the resources allocated for R&D. The Core Technology itself is defined as a group of common and fundamental technologies that the R&D group will continously research and develop. The first Core Technology Program started in 1975 and the third Core Technology Program has been carried out since 1992. This paper describes procedures for the planning of the Core Technology Programs. A five year mid-term R&D active plan is made on the basis of the Core Technology Program, and the yearly R&D action plan is crated as a result of the mid-term R&D action plan and proposals by each researcher.

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To minimize besetting risks for in-house R&D, firms must have adequate targets that correspond well to future needs. Advanced materials may often be developed under ambiguous situations in terms of both technology and marketing. Therefore, technological forecasts should play a more significant role. Forecasts for advanced materials are very difficult because of these factors. But, we might be able to improve probability of them by pursuing the progress of technological innovations, the change of industrial structure, the trends of diversification of goods, and so on. For technological forecasts carried out in firms, trend analyses are appropriate. It must be remembered, however, while constituent technology will independently progress continuously, the development of materials, which are applications and combinations of both, will progress rather sporadically. There are many ways of forecasting technology well, for instance: evaluations of current technologies, possibilities of alternative technologies, pursuit of technological progress and change in the peripheral fields and the examination of environmental and social conditions. Finally, managerial aspects are also important in linking technological forecasts and R&D performance. There are many uncertain factors in the development of advanced materials. To cope with such changes, R&D systems, organizations and their attitudes toward the management of R&D must become more flexible.

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