Previous studies into the formation of analytical framework for regional planning have concentrated on the use of econometric models, system dynamic models or dynamic optimization models etc. In this paper however, we have adopted an approach which is different from the previous stated approaches. It aims at the pi-oposition of a new regional planning support system via a model reference adaptive system (MRAS). Basically, we built the dynamic interregional input-output model for the Japan's nine regional economies, and then clarified regional adaptive structural changes for achieving future goals of regional planning. The resuls of this article, it is hoped, would shed a new light on studies on regional planning, regional science and regional economics.

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This paper aimes at presenting a process for formulating some feasible alternative plans, taking into consideration complex decision problems and various restrictions. In considering those factors, the process presented here is based on AIDA (Analysis of Interconnected Decision Areas) which has been modified by introducing the concept of Option Bar Criteria (OBC).
OBC is a formulated stile of the restrictions which are considered tacitly in the present plan generation methods. By clarifying these criteria, it becomes possible to deal more explicitly with the changes of the intensity of restrictions.
These modified AIDA was applicated for the planning of Automated Guideway Transit system at FUNABASHI. This application demonstrates that there are no feasible alternative plans under present restrictions. However. the possibillity exists if some changes of restrictions take place. It is confirmed that the process, which becomes possible by using OBC. is effective under various restrictions.

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Sea-borne container carriers are competing too hard each other on major container lines like the line between Far East and North America. They are seeking the effective planning method for the scale of transportation facilities such as ships, container terminals and containers. There are a few studies on planning these facilities under a given cargo which a carrier should transport without competitors.
In this study, we suggest a facility planning model with multi-carrier in order to determine the strategy of carriers in actual competition. In this model, the optimal service level and scale of facilities are determined by the two-person nonzero-sum game with payoff matrix given by two sub-models:(a) shipper's behavior sub-model, (b) carrier's facility planning sub-model.
Some case studies show the effectiveness of this model.

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The property value method has been well developed as a tool to measure the benefits of transport improvements, However, it can be applied when the interest transport facilities can be regarded as local public goods, namely, all the user benefis are to be imputed to land values.
This study deals with a method which can estimate the total benefit of the improvement and can also separate them into the imputed part and the residual part, under more general assumptions.

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A positive forecasting system of population distribution based on models of housing relocation behavior is developed for Tokyo Capital Region.
The forecasting system is a recursive model with 5-year intervals and has a three-level hierarchical structure for spatial aggregation. The major submodels include disaggregate nested logit models of housing type-location choice, Cohort component methods, multiple regression models of zonal housing locating probabilities.

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This paper proposes a new residential allocation model. It can solve a problem of housing pattern change in non-growth cities which usual operational land use models with an incremental assignment method have been troubled to treat. The model is composed of two submodels, demolition estimation and newly constructed housing assignment. As statistical data of demolition housing stocks are lacked, a calculation method of the number of them using housing census data is developed. Demolition submodel developed has some questions but it plays a great role in this model. Housing assignment submodel is an usual operational type model. The test results of the model in Osaka metropolitan area shows that it can represent complica-ted housing pattern changes with fairly good accuracy.

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As a result of the spreading of towns and the related growing use of private cars, road traffic noise increased in the city and intruded into rural areas with every new road. In order to protect the residents in their urban dwellings, the land use planning should be combined with traffic noise evaluation method. In this study, the evaluation method including the effect of trunk roads in the urban area was constructed using the theory for an ideal homogeneous city and the calculated results were compared with the measurement.

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This paper proposes a simple method for noise prediction near road area by compounding traffic noise and background noise. Here some methods of estimating background noise level have been attempted.
As the result of this study, it has been shown that the prediction is improved and this model is considerably practical.

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In recent years cities of cold region in Japan have been experiencing greater environmental problem arising from dust pollution caused by studded tyres of road transport vehicles. In spite of perisistent efforts of several measures to reduce the quantity of dust, there has pronounced increase in the volume of dust during early winter and spring seasons has been experienced. This paper treats an application of Fuzzy system model for formalizing the uncertain information of regional dust pollution problem and the vague composition of causes and effects is proposed. In terms of introducing several alternatives, the model is simulated and the measures towards dust hazard reduction are evaluated by means of several criteria.

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In recent year, it is important to create preasant pedestrian spaces. Power distribution facilities are designed for harmony surrounding, and undergrounded on the nationwide scale.
In this study, we clarified the factors which characterize amenity evaluation of streets, and developed the method to measure effects of undergrounding distribution poles and wires quantitatively.

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Recently, many current topics on tourist resorts and fascinated town scapes have been reported by visual and linguistic mass media.Before actual experience of scapes many people form their images.
The purpose of this study is to obtain some informations available to make a new design concepts. They are abstracted through the field experiment under the stimulus of linguistic media.

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The structure of evaluation of a river space in a city is studied at the Kanda river and the Syakujii river which are typically urbanized in Tokyo. The river space is devided into the physical space and the psychological space. The influence of the geometrical characteristics of the upper- and mid- Kanda river on evaluation of the physical river space is examined. A preferable structure of river space is gained by the psychophysical approach. The cognitive model for evaluation of the psychological river space is presented. The difference of the structures of evaluation is examined at two zones in the Syakujii river using the model.

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The objective of this paper is to know the relationships between human behavior and environment within the rivers to apply it to the design of river banks. Considering behavior as the spot activity and flow line, we later investigate the activities by method of natural observation.
The findings are as follows: passive activities are the heart of the rivers, and the activities in and arround the rivers are almost all influenced by the surface of the water, landscape and landmark.
Therefore, we should pay a great attention to value passive activities and reserve the view toward the water and other landmarks from the river walks and rest area.

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A method of evaluation of driver's eye-movement behavior which is measured by a vision analyzer are studied. The resalt of this study is summarized briefly to the followings.
(1) A vision analyzer, which has a powerful data processing system, is used to record driver's eye-movement. Driver's eye-movement patterns in driving is displayed in the three dimensions space.
(2) Fixation duration, fixation distances and frequency distribu-tion of fixation points in driving are estimated from the result of measureffient of eye-movement.
(3) A entropy that is the expectation of an amount of information is used to evaluate driver's eye-movement behavior.

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This paper discusses a systems approach to analyzing viability of resort-oriented regional development in devitalized areas, whereby our focus is placed on assessment of business administrability of small-sized industries supplying lodging services, whose demand is subjected to uncertainty in time. Two criteria are defined to assess the business administrability of lodging facilities from the long and the short perspectives. An assessment model of the business administrability is presented, which explicitly considers uncertainty of a profit stream. A case study in Wakasa Town, Tottori Prefecture, illustrates how this region can be vitalized, and demonstrates the applicability and potential of our model in assessing the illustrated points.

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This paper aims to develop an estimation method of economi-cal loss due to ship collision, particularly focussing on the ship damages.
The economical damage of collision ships can be estimated by their ship prices and damage ratios. However, the current ship prices are largely influenced by the “ship market”. Thus, for future estimation, it is necessary to know the ship age and the influence of future ship market. In this paper the “ship market” is analysed based on several statistical indexes of shipping market. Using these indexes, the estimation method of the future ship price under the average level of ship market is proposed. It is very useful in evaluation of marine traffic systems for Risk-Cost-Benefit Analysis.

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The reliability of earthquake-emergency-road-network is a probability that fire engine or ambulance car can reach from its base to every points in its responsible service area through the network. It can be defined as Source to All Terminal Reliability, R_s(G). In this paper, we propose using Overall Reliability, R_o(G), as its practical measure based on:
i)R_o(G) is equivalent to R_s(G) if all roads can be used in bidirected way,
ii) Some decomposition method is applicable to calculate R_o(G) if G is a bi-connected graph and the amount of calculation can be reduced to reasonable level.
We demonstrate that this method is workable to networks of practical size and the gap between R_s(G) and R_o(G) is less than 20%. We also discuss this method is useful to determine the responsible area of each base.

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The capacity and the speed-flow curve associated with the linkes representing a road network are the primary components to take into acount the effect of congestion in traffic assignment analyses. These components are commonly regarded as an important factor affecting the accuracy of the resulting estimates. Meanwhile, most of the conventional traffic assignment analyses aim at allocating a set of OD demands of an entire day to a road network. But the rational estimate of the link capacity and the speed-flow curve based on a entire day are scarcely known. In this paper we propose a new method to estimate the link capacity and the speed-flow curve based on a entire day considering hourly variations of linke volumes of the day.

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The equilibrium traffic assignment models are reviewed. the similarity between the link flows obtained from deterministic and stochastic equilibrium traffic assignment models is investigated at different congestion level, different network structure and OD distribution pattern. A typical city transportation network is used to show how the difference of deterministic and stochastic equilibrium models is influenced by the structure of network and OD distribution pattern as well as the level of congestion. The procedure is intended to assist in the choice of the most appropriate assignment algorithm for a given network and congestion level.

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Traffic equilibrium considering congestion at junctions is studied. The congestion depends on user's route choice and signal control. Two models involving such junction interactions are suggested. First, the capacity condition of junction is made cleared, and an equilibrium model including junction capacity conditions is shown. The solution of this model have a character being consistent with Smith's responsive control policy Po. The other model is based on the conflict between users and the signal-setter. From the examination to traffic circum-stances, an equilibrium model requesting simultaneous solution of users equilibrium and optimal signal setting is proposed. Iterative solution methods for these two models are suggested and computational examples are shown.

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Evaluation of train scheduling is an important step for efficient use of restricted transportation facilities to improve the severe congestion in metropolitan area. This paper proposes a method for evaluating train scheduling from the view point of user's benefit. First, we formulate the model which represents a train diagram as a time-space network and explains user's behavior on the diagram network. Next, the criteria for evaluation of train scheduling is presented. This model is applied to a railway in Tokyo metropolitan area, and the applicability is validated. Finally, some train schedulings in Tokyo metropolitan area are evaluated by the method.

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This paper deals with reduction in the peak-hour travel demand by staggered office hours, and survey data gathered in Hiroshima Urban Area are used. Work travel is analysed in terms of arrival time at work place, departure time from home, and mode choice. The effect on out of home activities of commuter is also studied. It is proposed that the characteristics of work travel is explained by not only official work start time but traffic condition, kind of workshop, and attributes of commuter. Some implications for traffic demand control by staggered office hours are considered.

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The general aim of this paper is to study the phenomenon of forcasting traffic demands with particular emphasis being paid to a comparative study of categorized, retrospective works dealing with related themes, an analysis of behavioral patterns and awareness of the inhabitants living in the Shikoku area to traffic facilities, the innovation and implementation of a unique modal choice model and finally, the calculation of time and fatigue factors which constitute essential parameters for the behavioral model or for standard behavioral patterns within the modal choice.

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Some investigations to forecast the passengers demands for Nagoya International Airport have been achieved up to now by the autho-rities concerned. It has become clear through them that Nagoya Airport has a defective characteristic that the majority of the passengers within its hinterland prefer Narita/Tokyo Airport or Osaka Airport to Nagoya Airport. Hence forecasting the airport choice of the passengers becomes more principal problem than forecasing the total passengers demands within the hinterland of Nagoya Airport.
In this study, a modal choice model has been introduced to this problem and a case study has been achieved to the demand forecast of international passengers in Nagoya Airport in 1995.

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The airline demand is constrained under supply capacity. And demand models without supply constraints have biased parameters.
In this paper, we developed a new forecasting method by disequilibrium estimation with the exess supply probability. And aggregate logit models were calibrated for the domestic airline.
The properties of this methodology were well examined, and the higher goodness of fit and forecasting ability comparing the conventional models were shown. Finally, we presented the procedure of demiand forecasting with supply constraints.

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This paper has discussed on the applicability and echnical options of the lap-top computer-based interactive stated preference survey methods to railway route choice behaviour of work/school trips. Major results are (1) very high stability of intentions suggests high applicability of this survey methods, (2) very accurate route choice models can be constructed, (3) paired comparison method is superior to ranking method, although there are some room on how to treat ranked intentions, and (4) dominant alternative can be subtracted to reduce the burden of respondents. General discussions on the characteristics of this survey method are also included.

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We propose the Simplified Travel Demand Estimation Model. This model, which is basically extention of the conventional 4 step model, is based on small sample surveys and full use of rich existing PT survey results. Adaptation of this model to Miyazaki City and Utsunomiya City shows that 1) the Simpli-fied Travel Demand Estimation Model is adaptable to these cities with good estimation results, and that 2) three hund-red households are enough to estimate trip generation rates, trip length and disaggregate mode choice models which are the key parts of whole estimation process.

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The paper is concerned with the aggregation bias of the LOS provided by network measurements and its effects on the specification of disaggrerate modal choice models. Five LOS calculated by different minimum indicies including travel time, cost, transfer times, and generalised cost in public transport network are compared with the individual LOS given by attitude survey. The LOS coded by each minimum index is significantly different and the coded measurements by the minimum travel time with transfer penalty are superior to other ones in terms of estimation accuracy. The difference of LOS affects the specifi-cation of BL models less significantly, but the aggregation bias of LOS has an important effect on the model accuracy as compared with the ones specified by individual perceived LOS.

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In order to reduce traffic congestion on expressways in Japan, the road pricing policy using congestion fee is expected to be effective. Therefore, this study mainly deals with analyzing drivers' consciousness on the road pricing using causal modeling method which consists of Simon-Blalock method and path analysis.
As a result, the following aspects can be obtained. The consciousness of drivers related to congestion fee shows that the main factor is income, and that the acception group consists of high income group in commuter trips. On the other hand, the lower income group intends to change their modes to public transportaion. Business trips shows the completely different characteristics comparing with commuter trips.

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The purpose of this paper is to develop a toll system of the urban expressway in which multiple uniform fare circles are overlapped, and to empirically examine its effectiveness using the practical application. In this model, an inequality is defined as the difference be-tween the extra fare paid at the check-point toll gate and the one based on an idealized uniform fare system when passing through the overlapped fare section. The model is formulated by minimizing the total inequalit-ies of urban expressway users subject to the repayment condition.The result shows that this model is a useful tool for representing a toll system when the overlapp-ed fare section may be changing its length temporally.

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The provision of a parking information system has an effect on efficient use of parking facilities. In this paper, desi-rable condition of the usage of parking lots which should be realized by a parking information system is discussed.
A linear programming model is used to derive a set of parking assignments that collectively minimizes the walking distance which is modified considering the effect of parking fee. And a case study is carried out in the CBD of Osaka.

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This paper aims at establishing the methodology for the analysis of urban goods movements from a view point of the interaction among urban facilities.The model consists of the input-output table of goods between OD facilities and the goods movement equations of continuity. This methodology is applied to analysis of goods movement in Tokyo Metropolitan Area in 1972 and in 1982. It is found that this methodology is able to identify an indirect effect caused by the additional construction of facilities on urban goods moovement. This model is also applied to demand forecast in 1982 by using data in 1972 to clear the direction of improvement of the model.

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The study aims at explaining agglomerative trends of urban activities employing quantitative data. In addition, from a standpoint of the activation of urban core areas, it proposes a method of examination of effective plans, which are prepared in order to improve transport networks. In this paper, a two-level analysis is presented. Firstly, urban core areas are designated on the basis of certain criteria. Their constituent characteristics are also analysed from various angles. Secondly, the “Potential Estimation Model” is developed in order to assess the degree of locational potentiality of urban activities in each designated core area. The same model is also employed for purpose of the impact assessment process of transport improvements upon core areas. The method is then applied to the Keihanshin (Kyoto, Osaka, Kobe) Metropolitan Area, and its validity is examined.

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