What are policies to support and manage a society consisted of a number of aged persons and a few of young persons? The question is important for Japan because it is the first country among the developed countries in the world to enter an aging society. A number of past policies created and implemented in Japan have the characteristic of separating generations and administrative territories. For example, there are extending policy of retiring age and care policy for old people. These separable policies are of course necessary, but not sufficient. More essential policy concepts underlying separable policies will be indispensable to support and manage an aging society. The purpose of this paper is to present some fundamental policy concepts which are not separable. Our basis ideas are from educating followers to educating leaders on human being and from administration leading to citizen leading on social systems.
This paper analyzes the impact of an aging on the local economy in Nagoya City, and discusses the conditions for solving the budget deficit of local finance, using an econometric model. The model is a simultaneous model of Nagoya City, for this purpose, the budget components to be carefully estimated, on one hand, and the population block to be built, using the cohort-component method, on the other hand. The analyses are based on two simulations for a prediction period of 1998-2010. These assumptions of two simulations are as follows. (1) the aging population is increasing according to the data of the cohort-component method and (2) the aging population is fixed in 1997, in both cases the other exogenous variables are fixed in 1997. From the results of simulations, we find that the gap between the expenditure and the revenue minus local bond is 852.7 billion Yen and the burden of per aged person is 3, 600, 000 Yen in 2010.
Environmental problems account for many of the hindrances faced by Bangladesh in her efforts towards economic development. This paper, based on a survey, reflects on the sub-human environmental and socio-economic condition of the people living in the Teesta River basin in Bangladesh, which could have been otherwise had the barrage named Gazoldoba at the upstream of the Teesta River in the Indian territory not been constructed and operated. The Bangladesh authorities had built a barrage in her territory (at Dalia in 1979, at the downstream of the Teesta river) in order to use the Teesta water for irrigation purposes to improve the socio-economic condition of the inhabitants of the Teesta region. However, owing to the controlling of the flow of water at the upstream, the Dalia barrage has become useless. Moreover, there are flash floods, artificial droughts and river erosions in the Bangladesh region, which are caused by controlling of water at Gazoldoba. Therefore, attempts have been made in this study to clearly understand the nature of the problem and to find out an optimal economic solution to it. We have concluded by making some recommendations for optimal use of Teesta water, which would be beneficial for both India and Bangladesh.
In the previous paper, we raised the inverse problem to estimate entry frequency from both of data on the number of visitors observed at every shopping site and data obtained by on-site trip chain survey. To solve this, we developed simultaneous estimation method of consumer's entry frequency and shop-around pattern. While large retailers usually count the number of visitors at their shops, small retailers are not likely to count total visit frequency at their sites. Thus it is almost impossible to collect total visit frequency data at every size of shopping site. We necessarily face with the incomplete data problem where total visit frequencies at some shopping sites are missing. Hence some extension of our previous method is needed to enable one to do simultaneous estimation of entry frequency and shop-around pattern under the condition of missing data. The purpose of this paper is to make an extension of our previous method to tackle this problem. We apply the extended method to actual case of Fukuoka City and shows that our extended inverse estimation method is effective and accurate enough to estimate the entry frequency and shop-around pattern under missing data.
NNR (Nishi-Nippon Railroad Co. Ltd.) introduced the downtown one-dollar circuit bus in Fukuoka City, Japan in July 1999. NNR first announced that it was an experiment until March 2000 while it could be continued as a business after the experimentation period if its operation record would pass the given criteria of profitability. Surprisingly, during past 8 months, the downtown one-dollar bus has attracted over 1.8 times as many customers as before. NNR has decided to keep on running the downtown one-dollar bus as a business from April 2000. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the economic impact of the downtown one-dollar bus at city center retail environment of Fukuoka City based on data obtained from surveys on consumer's shop-around behavior conducted in March 2000.
Brander and Spencer (1985) suggested that a subsidy policy for export could improve national welfare. Such a policy instrument is called strategic trade policy. But, it is used to say that strategic trade policy allows domestic firms strategic behavior, and that it may cause welfare less than under free trade. Kydland and Prescott (1977) claimed that higher welfare might be achieved by previously selected rules than by state-contingent governing discretion, for the former permits a rational-expected agent no room for strategic operations. Essentially, any prior-determined subsidy policy by the government, including free trade, forbids firms' strategic action. But, if the authorities do not have a perfect credibility, the remaining agents anticipate that it might change its strategy announced already, and they will maneuver their situation into a position which they prefer. Therefore, it is understood that not preceding decision by the administration but its credibility restricts the others' strategic activities. A complete credibility and no credibility are equivalent to rules and discretion, respectively. I analyze the situation under between zero and full level of the credibility of the government. The model is a four-stage game. First, the home government announces some subsidy program, given a certain credibility level. Second, a domestic firm chooses its cost-cutting investment. Third, renegotiation on subsidy happens depending on the credibility level. Last, the home firm competes a la Cournot with a foreign firm in an export market. Increasing credibility proves to cause higer welfare. Then, I will investigate how much the welfare decreases at small credibility. Intuitive reasoning says that a policy-making government always achieve higher welfare than a nation with no governmental authorities does. But, it follows that the government with small credibility causes, by the optimal policy, welfare worse than the non-governing nation does if the national exporter has larger strategic incentives by smaller investment costs. Furthermore, it might happen that negative welfare results from even larger incentives to invest, meaning that it is worse than under no trade.
Krugman showed the uneven development in his North-South model assuming increasing return production technology. Though his theory was very exciting, it was not based on strict microeconomic foundations. The purpose of this paper is to reexamine his theory assuming profit-maximizing behavior of individuals. We assume that each firm faces the decreasing-return technology. However, due to the existence of the Marshallian external effect, the social production technology exhibits increasing return. Even though following the Krugman's line, i.e., the increasing-return production technology, we can derive the optimal level of investment of each individual by her maximization behavior. We assume that one can invest her capital in whatever regions or firms where the rate of return is higher. Under a mild assumption, thus determined short-run equilibrium is stable, where each firm has the same amount of capital, since we assume that the production technology of each firm is homogeneous. Next, we consider the dynamic behavior of the economy. When we assume that, on the balanced growth path, the marginal product of capital of each firm is decreasing, we can derive that the long-run equilibrium is stable and each firm is homogeneous. But the number of the firms in each region is not determined. We also derived the possibility of uneven development, i.e., the firm of those regions are not homogeneous and capital concentrates to one region in the long run when we abandon the assumption stated in the above.
This study compares price discrimination and uniform pricing in a spatial market of the Hotelling type. At first spatial monopoly is studied to compare with the case of spatial monopolistic competition, which shows that price discrimination requires different sorting mechanism depending on the type of market structures. The study shows in particular some positive results of spatial monopolistic competition, comparing market shares, prices and output under the two pricing policies. If consumers are sorted according to the strengths of their brand preferences, their welfare increases even without any quantity increase. Moreover, most consumers may be better off under price discrimination than they are under uniform pricing if differences in strengths of brand preference are large enough.
The purpose of this study is to consider the possibility to apply a third-sector railway “Furusato-gingasen”, for improvement the service level of transportation between central and eastern Hokkaido. Most of the lines which were separated from JNR (Japan National Railways-the forerunner of Japan Railways) were reborn as thirdsector railways. But the plans of management to maintain the minimal level of transportation infrastructure had not been discussed enough. The environment of transportation in rural areas is expected to become more difficult after the relaxation of restrictions on supply and demand adjustment in mass transit. The economy of Hokkaido Chihoku-kogen Tetsudo Company, the owner of the “Furusato-gingasen”, is not healthy just like other third-sector railways in rural areas. New countermeasures should be estimated and tried at this critical turning point. The first step was test calculation of the high speed improvement utilizing the “Furusato-gingasen”. We had a result that it would cost approximately four billion yen. We also analyzed the attitudes of the residents in Kitami and Abashiri who usually use railways. As the result of the simulation by a modal choice model, it was clear that application of the “Furusato-gingasen” would be able to raise the share of railway transportation between Sapporo and cities in eastern Hokkaido.
Various urban problems by the overconcentration of the urban functions in Tokyo have been pointed out. As a countermeasure to long commuting time, the decentralization of some employment, has been proposed in order for commuters to commute from closer areas. Certainly, if jobs are matched with houses and the “shokuju-kinsetsu” urban structure is realized, the total commuting quantity will decrease. But, if commuters could not change their houses soon, the job-decentralization will cause the longer commuting time and quantity. In this paper, we examine how much the commuting time in Tokyo Metropolitan Area could be decreased at certain optimum. Applying Transportation Problem of Linear Programming to Tokyo Metropolitan Area, we compare and examine the minimized commuting time with the real one. In the existing studies, the standard form of Transportation Problem was applied to these problems of commuting time. But, this application has some points at issue. It is pointed out that the standard form of Transportation Problem, that has only a set of constraints that fix the total quantities from origins and those to destinations, is so simple and the solutions are so unrealistic. This can be related to the mathematical characteristics of the Transportation Problem. There are few “non-0-elements” in the solution if the number of the constraints is fewer than the number of the elements in the solution. In this paper, therefore, we solve the Transportation Problem by adding more plausible constraints based on industrial classifications, and compare the minimized commuting time with the actual one. Consequently, we find that the excess commuting has increased in all models between 1975 and 1995, and conclude that the job-decentralization could not effectively bring about the “shokuju-kinsetsu” urban structure.
East-Mikawa area is located in the east part of Aichi prefecture. This area faces the Pacific Ocean and the Mikawa bay and it extends to the Toyogawa valley. This area possesses a large area traffic system such as the Tomei expressway, Tokaido Shinkansen, and Mikawa port. The area is composed of 4 cities and 11 towns or villages. At Toyohashi City and the Atsumi peninsula, there is the high-value added production system. The production system strongly depends on Toyogawa water. In this area, there are some policy issues: the water demand and supply in Toyogawa valley, regional differences of aging and depopulation, and environmental preservation in Mikawa bay and Okumikawa region. We attempt to construct a multi-regional econometric model. It offers a basic tool to analyze policy issues in this area. Our purpose is to develop the model that can be analyzed social and economic situations at each cities, towns, and villages in East-Mikawa area. In this paper, we focus on the economic structures of Toyohashi City, Toyokawa City, and Gamagoori City. These are main cities in East-Mikawa area. We examine the water demand and supply structure of Toyogawa valley.
It is an urgent task now to realize urban renovation by both revitalizing economic activities and reconstructing the city into peaceful and safe space. Above all, we need to cope urgently with redevelopment of widely scattered low or less utilized areas in Tokyo and other big cities, as the improvement of these areas into livable environment refers directly to the improvement of residents' living space as well as to desirable preparation for the aged society. Of those low or less utilized areas in CBD, in heavily densed residential areas where ownership are somewhat limited and complicated, it is difficult, in general, to proceed improvement projects, as conservative aged population is prone to be dominant in such areas. In Chuo City, where promotion of more efficient land use is regarded to be necessary especially, many areas are still left yet to be improved. We reckon that reverse mortgage system can effectively be applied as a new method to carry out residential environment improvement projects in densily built up CBD areas. This system can allow aged people etc. to keep on living on present site while developers are required to take enough time to promote redevelopment projects. Majority of the institutionalized reverse mortgage system in Japan so far have been linked with welfare services provided by municipal government, thus its application has been confined to individual utilization of the respective asset. “Town-Building-Type Reverse Mortgage System (tentative naming)” that we propose here not only enables landowners to extract living cost from their owned assets, but also enables them to aggregate small scaled ownership to promote larger scaled land utilization.
Land readjustment project of Sapporo Station is carried out in these years. This project includes the construction of new station with high-rise hotel and the large-scale shopping mall. Due to this, traffic environment will be deteriorated around station area. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate traffic regulation policies that overcome such traffic problems caused by the project. A comprehensive model combined with 2 steps assignment method and the method considering signal effects that authors developed enforced the evaluation. The assigned traffic volumes were estimated in case of two alternatives of road networks, that is, the case of pre-project and the case of post-project. These cases include several regulations that authors invented. The evaluation was enforced comprehensively in term of 2 indexes, namely, intersection saturation degree and total traveling time. As a result, the following points were concluded: (1) Traffic regulation policy that prohibited both the right-turn outflow from the redevelopment area and the right-turn inflow into the same area was the most effective. (2) The other policies brought the increase of circuit traffic. At the same time, they took long total traveling time and had no reduction of affects on intersection saturation degree.
Although the East Asia area (NIEs, ASEAN4, China) had attained growth high former generally, confusion of the currency and economy, which stemmed from Thailand in July 97, affected neighboring countries in an instant. It is generated against the background of globalization and a large amount of capital movements of finance and a capital market, and the market participant's change of how to catch the investment environment brings about the rapid inversion of a private capital flow, and since this Asian currency crisis has the feature of causing the sudden drop of currency or a stock price, it is also called the 21st century type currency crisis. In this report, the cause and background of a currency crisis are analyzed first, and it is engaged in the subject for returning to the growth course in which an Asian area is maintainable, and the subject which should be made in preparation for a future crisis are performed from the objective viewpoint through the comparative analysis. Next, the present condition of macroeconomic-interdependence that the Asia-Pacific region can be set is grasped positively, and it is focused on the measures and the structural reform after the crisis, so that the subject should be made from now on by hearing investigation to the policy maker and specialist of countries is clarified. As the country for investigation, with regard to the economic trend of China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Thailand, and Malaysia, in addition to analyzing in detail, we also have simply surveyed about the other Asia countries. Asian economy would be on truck once again not a high economic growth in short term but sustainable growth in long term when construction adjustment would be held steadily.
To keep ‘sustainability’ becomes important in urban planning because of ecological condition. But concerning declining fertility, keeping fertility is the biggest problem. In this sense, to keep a community sustainable, preparing convenient living condition is necessary according to researches of anthropoid's behavior. In this paper, a concept called ‘regional system’ will be introduced, which means that whole community items such as parks, roads, houses, hospitals, shops, day nurseries and people who lives are linked and supported each other. It is assumed that to stop declining fertility, preparing a convenient regional system for child rearing people. Firstly the paper has examined that conditions of parks, roads, public traffics and housing etc. are key issue of convenient regional system by questionnaires to child rearing parents and nurses. Secondly the paper proposes a new method of participation. The key of this method is that needs for how to link parks and houses or how to link day nurseries and shops are included. In this method, needs of child rearing people are once accepted as a comprehensive plan for child rearing people to encourage their participation. And then it is used as data to make plans of local government. This paper proved this method is effective to make plans for realize convenient regional system. Lastly, according to the results of investigation, this paper shows problems of local government in the sense of realize the method using comprehensive plan for child rearing people.
The industrial structure of Fukui prefecture which used to be centered in the textile industry, has been changing drastically through the overall upheaval of the industrial structure of Japan. The textile industry is still in the first place in terms of the number of works but in terms of the annual shipment is the second to the electric machinery field which is now the central core industry of Fukui. Local governments used to try to develop industrial parks on a large scale and to invite companies widely. The aims were to increase employment, tax revenue and to activate the local community. The main purpose of the research is to clarify the satisfaction on both sides. The survey in terms of interviews has been made in the fiscal year 1999 to the 22 works in the mechanical manufacturing of the Fukui prefecture with its headquarters outside. Questionnaire included style of management and scale of business, motivation of moving and the problems at the moment such as the waste management. More than half of the surveyed works moved to Fukui at the 1970's and after, which period agreed with the high-growth of the whole Japanese industries. Main reasons of moving are the invitation of the local government and the persuasion through the human-network. The reasons based on the business management theory such as the price of land or business strategy are far less. The style of management is either a manufacturing works or an independent subsidiary corporation, but management headquarters in substance are not in the prefecture. The research and development capacities are not found in these works. The employment is mostly for blue-color workers and workers for design and development are recruited at the substantial headquarters. Some companies in the rural areas complain that they can not recruit white colors. The annual shipment is mostly based on the internal sales cost and is lower than the wholesale by 20-30%. The capital of independent subsidiary corporations is often too small compared to the annual turnover. In both cases, the local tax revenue is reduced to some extent. Formation of subcontractor groups after moving into the Fukui prefecture is not enough, then the companies keep the relation with the subcontractors at the old site. It is quite rare that the new culture originates through interaction of the companies with the local communities.
This paper examines the issue of regional inequalities in per capita production in Vietnam. In the 1990s, estimates indicate such inequalities may have widened, or at the very least persisted. It is concluded that regional inequalities have resulted from industrialization, restriction of internal migration, and the concentration of foreign direct investment and public investment in specific areas.
In local cities, downtowns are declining due to the motorization and the emergence of large-scale shopping centers in the suburban area. The benefit of physical agglomeration on the economic activities is also decreasing because of the progress of the information technology (IT) such as the electronic commerce and telecommuting. Local cities have been faced to the crisis of dissolution and dismantlement for several decades. In the background of the globalization, deregulation and environmental concerns, the urban regeneration becomes an important subject in the world. The Japanese government adopted a downtown regeneration policy which utilizes a power of the private sector. Each town made the plan for regeneration. In some local cities, the town management organization (TMO) was founded to revive old downtowns. The government introduced some legal and public supports to old downtowns. However we cannot see a symptom of downtown revival. In this paper, we describe the subjects of old downtown and difficulties with policy-making and management. Case studies of the urban regeneration policy in the U. K. and United States are shown. We also examine successful and unsuccessful factors of urban regeneration.
These days many cities in Japan are confronted with the problem of decline of city center retail environment due to motorization and location of large shopping centers at suburban area. This problem aroused the awareness that the loss of city center retail environment (CCRE) means the loss of the prerequisite of subsistence of city. Thus many cities have launched redevelopment projects to revitalize their CCRE. With this in mind, we already have proposed an evaluative framework for assessing the spatial structure of CCRE based on consumers' shop-around behaviors. Furthermore, a frequency-based shop-around Markov model was constructed to forecast how redevelopment projects at CCRE would change consumers' shop-around patterns and what changes in retail sales would follow. On the other hand, evaluating public projects in terms of money has been attracting serious concerns recently. This is required from harnessing exploding public investments, consciousness with environmental consequences of public projects, and so on. Thus much discussion has been made on valuation methods of environmental resources such as CVM (contingent valuation method), travel cost method, user benefit method, hedonic approach etc. While CCRE revitalization projects often accompanies improvement of natural environments such as parks and rivers, few research has been carried out to evaluate them in terms of money. In this paper, we aim to extend the above Markov model to valuation of the natural environment such as river at CCRE. More specifically, the purpose of this paper is to propose an opportunity cost method for valuation of natural resources at CCRE based on consumers' shop-around behavior with its actual application to the Murasaki River at CCRE of Kitakyushu City. At the CCRE of Kitakyushu City, the Murasaki River flows from south to north dividing the CCRE into east and west. Apparently, the existence of the Murasaki River decreases consumers' shop-around between east and west so that retail turnover at each side decreases. Using the above model, we have estimated the total annual amount of the decrease of retail turnovers, which is the loss of sales that would have been obtained if it were not the Murasaki River. Thus it is the opportunity cost retailers are paying annually. To change the viewpoint, this can be regarded as willingness-to-pay that retailers are willing to spend every year for leaving the Murasaki River as it is. Hence if it is discounted, we can obtain the asset value of the Murasaki River. This paper has done this.