In this paper, we state briefly the research characterization of the heavy metals, their sources, risks, and pathway to transmit to human body through environmental media. Then, we review various methods of risk assessment for these metals on human health, ending with discussion about the research methodology and estimation results using dynamic modeling approach. Finally we developed a dynamic mathematical model. In this model, we incorporate indicators regarding residents who are potentially affected by in-taking doses of Cr, Cd, and Pb. We also describe the interrelation with the sources of pollutaons related to production activities and the transmission pathway of pollutants through the source to water-soil, and agricultural output.
The 2000 eruption of Mt. Usu, began following twenty three yeas of the inactive period, not only seriously damaged the surrounding area but also had a profound effect on socioeconomic activity in the entire Hokkaido region due to the disconnecting of the main transportation route linking to Japan's main island. As for the road network, the eruption cut off traffic on the “Douou” highway and Route 230 running through the Usu area and led to requiring access control along several roadways. Forcing road users to substantial detour resulted in a great loss due to increasing travel time. Additionally, depending on the degree of the increasing of travel time caused by limited access, it might make some road users to cancel their trips. This disaster impact study is an attempt to develop a model showing travel pattern at the time of natural disaster, considering quantification of road users' cost subject to road network during the disaster time. This model can involve the situation in which road users cancel their trips as a result of increasing travel time. Therefore, it makes possible to estimate travel cost generated by impassable roadways and opportunity cost generated by trip cancellation at the same time. This is the most distinguish feature of this model. Reproducing a scenario of the limited road network at the time of the 2000 eruption of Mt. Usu with this model, the study compares the traffic census data and the assigned traffic volume estimated by this model. Furthermore, the study calculates travel time/cost and opportunity cost due to trip cancelled. As a result of comparing actual values and the estimated values for both usual-time and disaster-time at the major points in the Usu area, we find, with a correlation coefficient of approximately 0.9, the proportion with an error between actual and estimated values for each time study is within 20%. Therefore, we can extract conclusion that the developed model shows reproducibility. Moreover, the study estimates that the total loss caused by limited road network at the time of the 2000 eruption of Mt. Usu is 47 million per day: loss as a result of travel time/cost and of opportunity cost is 22 million per day and 25 million per day respectively.
The Ganges River is the most important source as water resources for both Bangladesh and India, and this has resulted in many conflicts between these two countries. This conflict situation changed drastically in 1975 because India constructed the Farakka Barrage over the Ganges River near the border. India and Bangladesh had no discussions on this construction, and India acted it unilaterally. However, the countries made treaties about water utilization of the Ganges after construction, in 1975, 1977, and 1996. Sometimes the treaties were followed depending on the political situation of the two countries. The treaties are changed differently in some aspects. Nonetheless, the three treaties are generally advantageous to India which is situated of upstream the river. Bangladesh is more vulnerable to flood and drought than India because of the Farakka Barrage. From this aspect, flood and drought in Bangladesh might be said to be a man-made disaster. However, it is difficult for Bangladesh to offer a new effective option for dissolution of the conflict because Bangladesh is at a disadvantage economically and topographically to India. As for India, it is hard to think that India changes its preference internally. Therefore, the conflict between Bangladesh and India has been stagnant since they have only negotiated by themselves. In such a case, participation of a third party is thought as being able to improve the situation. In this study, Conflict Analysis is used for modeling and analyzing this conflict. It is based on game theory, and provides algorithms to calculate equilibria among decision makers who have different preferences. Based upon the framework of Conflict Analysis, the roles of a third party are classified and defined into three types: ‘Donor’, ‘Coordinator’, and ‘Arbiter’, which are jointly called ‘Complement’ on the whole. The graph model methodology is applied to the conflict between Bangladesh and India. First, the actual situation is modeled using Conflict Analysis. Second, the condition which is necessary to improve the current conflict is analyzed, and the role of a third party which realizes this condition is considered. Third, the role of ‘Coordinator’ is used to find what condition is needed to improve the outcome of the conflict. The intervention of a third party to the conflict is one of the measures taken practically toward settlement of conflict, but there are not so many third parties which recognize and declare what role they will play. For the case in which the third party intervenes in the conflict and where players have difficulty to achieve a settlement by themselves, a third party should be fair and equitable. To realize such a stance of a third party, proof of its role is considered as an essential procedure. Under this recognition, this study is thought to be able to provide a useful framework to define the process for conflict management.
The purpose of this paper is the model analysis of main 4-regions in China. We take up 4-regins. (1) Beijing area (Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei), (2) Shanghai area (Shanghai, Jiangsu), (3) Guangdong area (Guangdong). These three are expanding coastal region and face with big inflow of population. (4) Sichuan area (Sichuan, Chongqing), which is a retarded inland region and an origin of the biggest population outflow. We try to analyze population migration among these 4-regions, and their impacts on economic growth.. Since 1950's under strict family register system, population migration was severely restricted in China, it started to grow only after 1978 due to liberalization trend. Since 1990's foreign investment rushed to coastal region, so the interregional difference with the retarded inland region has rapidly expanded. Inland rural areas (villages) are very poor, and excess workers are increasing. As restrictions of migrations were relaxed largely in 1990s, rural population started to migrate to urban and coastal regions. The current population movement is a serious policy issue. On the other hand, statistical information and quantitative studies about it are very scarce. We estimate the population migration function and construct 4-regions growth models, and divide each region into urban and rural areas and formal and informal sectors. By simulation studies combining these functions, we analyze the trend of population migration and assess their economic impacts on regional economic growth. This is a part of continuous research project, and an extension of earlier papers (Suzuki, and Fukuchi, 2000, 2001, and 2002).
In most of Japanese commercial districts, pedestrian count surveys have often been conducted to count the numbers of pedestrians who pass through several streets in order to grasp the pattern of pedestrian flows in their district. While they are useful to compare pedestrian flows at different points of time if conducted regularly, the data obtained from such surveys have never been utilized further. This paper proposes to introduce a new method of the pedestrian count survey so that the data obtained from this method enables one to construct a hidden Markov model to estimate dynamical pedestrian flows on the streets in a commercial district. We also give an actual application of our method to the case of city center retail district at Fukuoka City and show that our method is effective enough to have wide applicability.
Because our society is becoming more complex, we need effective decision aids which can handle a range of complexities. We require enhanced aids especially for helping laypeople to resolve conflict in practice. Accordingly, we propose an evaluation method that can support policymaking, by dealing explicitly with a diversity of people. In order to show the practicability of this approach, we apply it to the case of a collecting system for pruned branches and leaves discharged from private house garden, which system requires citizen's role. Before we describe the procedure, we discuss multi-criteria analysis which has attracted interest in public decision making in recent years. Furthermore, because organizations must be accountable to society, a transparent policymaking process is needed. Our method integrates both objective and subjective evaluations. In objective evaluations, we use ‘number's ratio weight’ which can be determind from the preferences of stakeholder. To integrate objective and subjective evaluations, we use ‘purpose weight’ which can be calculated from the degree of respect for the purpose of the systems or projects. In case study of collecting system for pruned branches and leaves from household which system aim mainly composting, we set three types of area, because different area has different number's ratio. As a result, we prove the importance of what the purpose is, and the effect of how the area is, and whereabouts of the action which should be taken. It is possible to use our method without special computer software, and therefore common people will be able to share the knowledge about the evaluations producted by this process. We are also confident that this approach will reflect the preference of both the silent majority and the silent minority in a given decision situation.
In case a water resources development would result in bad influences on basin environment in recent years, this development plan yields various stakeholders and conflicts. So, it has become important to make a decision based on not only design flood discharge or safety of water utilization but also consciousness of related stakeholders. However, the past approaches for evaluating stakeholders' consciousness, such as CVM, TCM, and Alternative-Matrix method, have some demerits when we answer questionnaires or make discussion. The purpose of this paper is to make pluralistic evaluation of effects to stakeholders. Moreover, the method suggested in this paper enables comparison between one stakeholder's effect and another's one. This method makes a trigger for constructive argument and consensus building by presenting the result to stakeholders. For this purpose, we take the following two steps. Firstly, the new approach for making the “satisfaction function” of a stakeholder is developed. This function means the degree of satisfaction corresponding to the stakeholder's criteria, and enables us to compare different criteria, such as flood control and environmental conservation. So-called “value function” resembles “satisfaction function”, but Keeney and Raiffa's conventional approach for making a “value function” has some problems about consistency between stakeholders. So, we propose the new approach for making “satisfaction function” by dividing a stakeholder to many groups who have different degree of necessity for improvement and evaluating each groups' degree of necessity. Secondly, this process is applied to the Yoshino River movable weir problem as a case study. In this case, we set two stakeholders, one is about flood control and another is about ecosystem. Then their satisfaction functions are constructed. Finally, we evaluate each group's satisfaction degree of each alternative with “factor-profile method”. The result shows the trade-off relationship between flood control and environmental conservation, and the groups that easily suffer from harm. In this way, the model and method proposed in this paper enables us to evaluate fairly the value of water resources development and environmental conservation, and to know the effects that alternatives have on stakeholders.
This paper assesses the impact on local government budget of the rearrangement of central-local fiscal relationship under proposal in Japan, or the so-called Trinity Reform, where it is proposed that some of the tax base be handed from the central to the local governments, in conjunction with drastic cut in both transfer of the tax revenue and a collection of subsidies. The tool used for this objective is the Nagoya City University Econometric Model (NCUEi 2003) whose core system has been duly modified to simulate proposals, and also to investigate the performance of the local economy under the strain of declining and aging population. The object case taken up in this paper is Nagoya City. The model is characterized by the market adjustment of the regional total demandsupply balance, where the age distribution of the population is incorporated so as to assess the impact of the demographic change both on the total demand and productive capacity. The forecast and simulations show that while the abovementioned Reform generates persistent unfavorable impact to the local government, the dominant negative impact comes from the demographic change, in terms of the primary balance of Nagoya City. Unless proper measures are to be taken, the simulations indicate, the local government's fiscal soundness will hardly be maintained under the two major pressures, one from the fiscal decentralization as represented in the subsidy cut-cum-tax base transfer and the other from the demographic change. The simulation of the abovementioned reform reveals that it definitely worsens the primary balance of the locality, and implies that practically an additional transfer of consumption tax must accompany this reform, even for one of the most favorable localities like Nagoya where its major industrial sectors, or the automobile-industry-led industries in this case, are steadily growing. The implication will be obvious for localities where economy is less favorable.
To circumvent the limitation posed by the traditional regional analysis tool, regional economists have turned using the more theoretical sound computable general equilibrium (CGE) models as a tool for policy and impact analyses. In the regional analysis applications how to model transport sector is of the special importance because that regions are relatively more open economies compared with nations. A central characteristic of transport is a joint product in most of domestic product. Terms of transport and transport policy thus have a more direct impact on trade flow. Two approaches have been developed to capture specific aspect of transport in the literature on international trade: iceberg modeling and explicit transport sector modeling. Special attention has been paid to iceberg modeling because of its simplicity; it is assumed that transport does not require any resource input directly. Owing its simplicity the iceberg assumption is used extensively for both in international and domestic trade modeling. Thus, we encounter a critical issue when we are concerned with the resource cost effect of transportation technology. The main purpose of this paper is to present a more general scheme for modeling transport as a separate sector in the contexts of CGE. To achieve this, we start with reformulation of Chenery-Moses type interregional input-output model from the viewpoint of microeconomic theory. While production activity at regional level is formulated as revenue maximization behavior, consumer behavior is modeled by maximizing a nested utility function that accounts for what commodities they purchase and from where they intend to import them. CES type utility function is assumed to generate interregional trade coefficient with interregional transportation costs. Transportation costs are then linked with the resource costs of transport technology along with the concept of the factor content. This modeling approach results in a fixed point problem for finding interregional trade coefficients consistent with given prices. Although general framework of our model is parallel to the conventional CGE model, however, our model allows the evaluation of resource cost effects and the prediction of changes in trade flow pattern as a consequence of the changes in transport technology and interregional factor movement.
In this paper, we examine illegal migration and the capital mobility under the minimum wage legislation. The framework which we take is Ramaswami-Bond-Chen' model where there are two countries, one commodity, and two factors. In their model we introduce the assumption that the source country of illegal migration is a developing country in the sense that the government adops Harris-Todaro minimum wage legislation. Different from the previous studies where technologies are assumed identical between countries, we assume that technologies differ between countries. Therefore, the results are somewhat different according to the factor intensity ranking between countries.
This paper focuses in the existence of quasi-fixed inputs and externality in the dynamic factor demand model of cost function. At first, we shed light on the degree of scale economies including the quasi-fixed inputs and externality in both static and dynamic models by theoretically. The degree of scale economy in the dynamic model was already introduced by Morrison (1985) (Journal of Business & Economic Statistics) and Morrison/Siegel (1999) (American Economic Review) by geometrically, We introduce it by algebraically. Next, the dynamic factor demand model with quasi-fixed inputs and externality is empirically estimated using translog cost function of fixed effect panel model. The results of estimation give some consequences. (1) The signs of cost elasticity of stock other than network type, network type stock and externality represent the results, which are theoretically required. (2) The effect of the network type stock to the cost function is larger than that of the stock other than network type. (3) Externality, which supports the input factor, is effective to the decreasing of the total cost.
In this study, we examine how the impacts of urban policy are assessed in Britain. An assessment of urban policy and evaluation is made by reviewing the evaluation systems and methods that are used in practice. The evaluation of urban policy is examined from two different perspectives: national and local public. Based on the study of urban regeneration evaluation in Britain, we make a number of suggestions for evaluating the recently introduced urban renaissance plan in Japan. We also discuss the potential for the assessment of urban policy evaluation.
The notion of a reservation value is a key feature of most contemporary dynamic and stochastic models of land development. It is clear that the magnitude of the reservation value has a fundamental bearing on the decision to develop or preserve land. This notwithstanding, many papers that analyze land development in a dynamic and stochastic setting treat a landowner's reservation value as an exogenous variable. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to endogenize the reservation value in the context of a model of land development over time and under uncertainty. Our analysis shows that the optimal reservation value is the solution to a specific maximization problem. In addition, we also show that there exist theoretical circumstances in which the optimal reservation value is unique.
This paper obtains the value of a statistical life (VSL) for children or the elderly by presenting an empirical analysis of how families value risk and examining family automobile purchases. Automobile safety is shown to be a family public good, where the marginal cost of purchasing and operating a safer automobile is set equal to the usage-weighted sum of the values of statistical life of family members. We use data on automobile purchases to estimate how much single car families of different composition (in terms of children, adults and the retired) spend on safety to impute the VSL of each age group. We find that children are valued more highly than some existing studies suggest. The VSL of the elderly is consistent with the discounted present value of life years approach. These results come, in great part, from an analysis of the fatal accident data that shows that fragility-the susceptibility to death in an accident of fixed severity-increases with age. Also, we show that an important factor for survival in two-vehicle accidents is the relative weight of the vehicles involved. The models of survival in fatal accidents are used to estimate standardized risks of mortality in different types of vehicles. These standardized risks are then used in hedonic models of the purchase price and fuel efficiency of a specified vehicle to determine the capital costs and the operating cost of reducing the risk of mortality.
Earlier studies (Hewings et al. 1998, Okuyama et al. 2002a, and Okuyama et al. 2002b) investigated the hollowing-out phenomenon of the Chicago economy, in which the manufacturing sectors in Chicago have decreased their intermediate dependency within the region while the service sectors have increased their dependency. In this paper, a set of annual input-output tables for the Chicago metropolitan economy during the period of 1980-97 was again employed for a further investigation of the structural change, using an alternative tool, the Temporal Leontief Inverse Analysis (Sonis and Hewings 1998), that can assist in exploring trends and uncovering tendencies in individual sectors or groups of sectors within the context of an economy-wide system of accounts. The results are compared with the earlier studies for examining the nature and details of the hollowing-out phenomenon.
Kansai economy greatly depends on the manufacturing industry sector. However, the establishments and enterprises in Kansai which had about 90, 000 in 1985 fall down to about 65, 000 in 2000. This is an evidence of de-industrialization in Kansai. On one hand, this phenomenon can be explained from the economics of agglomeration as the Tokyo monopolar system. On the other hand, the three laws governing industrial location might play an important role in this phenomenon. In the present paper, separating the Kansai into the restricted zone where the new establishment and extension of factories were forbidden and the nonrestricted zone, we estimated the industrial production function to examine whether the economics of agglomeration would exist or not. From the result, we find that some industries were hindered the economics of agglomeration in spite of the existence of the economics of agglomeration. Moreover, some industries do not have economics of agglomeration in the restricted zone because of the three laws governing industrial location.
From the 80's, shop-around behavior model (SABM) has been developing to evaluate the location pattern of shops and size of it within the City Center Retail Environment (CCRE). Various types of model, based on the SABM were developed such as forecasting the number of shoppers and their expenditure for each shopping sites and CCRE. Also the transportation mode within the CCRE has been evaluated with money term by using SABM, such as one coin bus in Fukuoka. Moreover the Poisson regression model with choice based sampling data was enabling to predict the number of visitors to CCRE. This paper is conceptualizing the Specialization Coefficient (RC) by shop-around behavior and testing in Kamata District in Tokyo Metropolitan Area, Japan. To specify, the RC is the indicator between each transportation mode and consumer shop-around behavior, which was defined by the shop-around effect (RE) and disaggregate typed RE for each transportation mode. From the result, visitors by bus, private rail company (Tokyu Line) and bicycle highly effecting Kamata district (RC is greater than 1). On the other hand, visitors by walk, other rail companies (JR and Keikyu Line), taxi, personal car and motorcycle have less effect (RC is less than 1). According to the result, RC is the useful indicator to assess the transportation mode within the CCRE.
This study provides ex post risk management system on municipal water, which is faced with stochastic environmental contamination. Water contamination is caused by, for example, detrimental organic compound derived from soil and underground water and germ from stockbreeding. We have difficulty in predicting occurrences, probabilities and severity of such contaminations. For this sort of contamination risk, ex ante risk management system by regulation and protection is limited in effectiveness, because such unpredictable features prevent the relevant control bodies from internalizing the externality of pollution in advance. Therefore, complementary ex post risk management measure is thought to be needed. Cost which becomes obvious afterward is classified into three categories. The first is the consumer cost: the cost of recovering the damage of health and restriction on water use. The second is the firm cost: the cost of building a purifier and compensating for people in polluted area. The last is the public cost: the cost of taking measures for the contamination caused by natural phenomena or unspecified sources. Our goal in this paper is to examine risk sharing system for the recovering costs of municipal water contamination and to consider its implication from the point of view of efficiency in resource allocation. According to “Polluter Pays Principle”, the cost of consumer could be converted into the second-type cost; if a polluter is specified, the polluter should compensate for the consumers' losses. However, if the polluter is not be able to specified because of complexity of exposure route or causal relationship between detrimental factors, governmental body may need to give them financial assistance. Thus, we develop the model of risk sharing systems for these costs; a kind of pollution insurance system for regional public sectors which supply municipal water. In the model based on the contract theory, optimal condition for the insurance contract are investigated, which determine the rule for efficient level of insurance and investment level in purification system. Applying the standard analytical process for the asymmetric information to the model, we have an implication that the investment level for purification system and insurance distributed could be supplied excessively when the level of contamination at each region is private information of the regional body. The conditions which cause the oversupply of the system and the allocation of insurance are interpreted that the system is thought to be effective against the contamination. Moreover, the incentive for the regional bodies to offer the overestimated level of the contamination could be interpreted as inevitable when the predictability of the occurrence of contamination is limited due to its stochastic nature. Considering that the inefficiency associated with the contamination risk sharing system could be serious, the efficiency of the risk sharing system should be compared with the implication of other ex post allocation systems.
A part of biomass resources are used for agricultural production and are recycled for materials of other activities, such as compost made from livestock excrement or rice plant straw used for litter. However, these activities are not revealed in economic statistics because of bartering and trading without any charge. It is necessary to understand transactions of biomass resources in agricultural sector properly. The purpose of this soudy is to propose an accounting system for evaluating biomass resources used in the agricultural sector, as well as to understand the status of wastes and environmental pressure arising from agricultural production. The waste acounting system can be adapted to the case of the agricultural sector to grasp the status of transactions of organic resources. It can also show the amount of environmental pressure arising from agricultural production in addition to the amount of biomass resources and their disposal and recycling. Finally, as an example of the use of information obtained from the accounting system, reducing environmental pressure is estimated if imported rice plant straw is substituted for domestic supplies. The results of the analysis are 1) Environmental pressure reduction due to reduction of burnt straw is 2, 089 ton-SPM, 1, 572 ton-CH4 and 25 ton-N2O in the case without regional constraint of straw supply, 2) When considering the regional constraint of the straw supply, the effect is reduced to 71% of the total. 3) Chubu area shows the largest effect of environmental pressure reduction.
This paper analyzes the CGE (computable general equilibrium) model based on Japan's national accounts and Japan's SEEA (system for integrated environmental and economic accounting). First, an environmental SAM (social accounting matrices) was compiled by introducing Japan's SEEA into the SAM of Japan's national accounts. Then, a CGE analysis of Japan's environmental SAM was conducted with a focus on “imputed environmental costs, ” also known as “eco-margin, ” with the use of GAMSHERCULES software. In conclusion, we have gained three main results: 1) an increase in environmental tax rates reduces the eco-margin; 2) an increase in capital has undesirable effects (on the other hand, labor has desirable effects) on the environment; 3) a direct reduction of “imputed environmental costs, ” by increasing inputs needed for environmental protection purposes, has almost no noticeable effects on the rest of the economy, with eco-margin being reduced to zero.
The values of a forest can be divided into “use” or “non-use”. On Yakushima Island, Japan, forests have been used directly and indirectly for a long time, so the use value of these forests has been very high for local people. In recent years, however, the non-use value of forests has become more generally recognized. In this study, we focused on the non-use value and examined its effects on the awareness of local people of nature conservation. Since 2001, we have been surveying the awareness of local residents of nature conservation on this island. We reviewed a series of surveys from the perspective of use and non-use values of forests, and noted the following trends. (1) Local people recognized both types of forest value. (2) The primary forest use has transitioned from direct to indirect use. (3) The use value of forests promotes awareness of nature conservation. (4) Individuals who are very interested in nature can contribute to conservation activities, even if they never use the forest directly. (5) The desire for strangers to know well of their island was one of the factors that contributed to local people's awareness of conservation. To examine the relationship between non-use values and conservation awareness, we compared the conservation awareness of three groups of people with different value sets: (1) people who considered only the non-use value of forests (NUVG), (2) people who considered only the use value (UVG), and (3) people who considered both of these values (NUV*UVG). Our results indicate that the NUV*UVG group had the highest conservation awareness, whereas that of the NUVG group was rather low. The differences in value systems depended on the frequency of forest use. We concluded that not only the awareness of non-use values but also recognition of the multivalues of a forest were important to promote forest conservation among locals.
China's economic growth is supported mainly by the growth of its industrial sector. Thus, the growth of the industrial sector is an important issue in Guangxi, which is still underdeveloped. This paper measures efficiency and productivity of the industrial sector of Guangxi since 1995 using firm-level data. Despite various limitations, two kinds of input and output data are available, and efficiency is evaluated using the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). The calculated results show that the average efficiency value of Guangxi firms is less than 0.5 on the whole. This suggests that there are very large relatively inefficient firms. Also, change of the Malmquist productivity index does not show any improvement in productivity as a whole. These results do not change a lot when the sector is viewed by disaggregating into 12 industries. Since the 9th five-year plan, transformation from growth based on intensive usages of inputs to growth based on improvements in efficiency and reforming state-owned enterprises has been emphasized. The results from this study however indicate that productivity improvements have not occurred in Guangxi, suggesting that development of the industrial sector in Guangxi through enhancement of efficiency will not be easy.
Government expenditures for small island communities (villages and towns) usually have little impact on economic development such as increase of production and employment. However, a good example of such positive effect is provided by Kitadaito island, which is an island village approximately 12 km2 lying 360 km away from the main island of Okinawa Prefecture. Kitadaito shows the highest per capita income in the entire prefecture and has almost full employment. This paper presents an investigation of relevant features of Kitadaito in order to determine the impact of public investment, particularly on agricultural improvement. The result of the investigation has implications for sustainable development. Procedures include usage of (1) the Cohort Method for projected population estimates, (2) Input-Output analysis for measurement of economic effects, including employment, and (3) an inhabitants-preference questionnaire for evaluating quality of life. Defining characteristics of Kitadaito economic development are found in: (1) high per capita public finance, (2) highest growth rate attributed to the agriculture sector, which is distinctive for (3) efficient mechanization of large-scale sugarcane farming. According to Input-Output Table Analysis for fiscal year 2000, the economic distribution of the 1.9 billion Yen public investment for production accounts for approximately 44% of value added figures and nearly 79% of employment within the village. Such figures indicate that the Kitadaito village economy is heavily dependent upon public investment. In fiscal year 2000, the population was 671 and public investment totaled 2.41 billion Yen. According to Cohort Method Estimates, the population may increase to 825 in fiscal year 2005, to 998 in fiscal year 2010, and to 1, 529 in fiscal year 2025. To accommodate this estimated population increase appropriately and equitably, public investment must necessarily increase by the following amounts: 555 million Yen for 2005 fiscal year, 1, 175million Yen for fiscal year 2010, and 3, 080million Yen for fiscal year 2025. The Koizumi cabinet is presently promoting a three-part structural reform rapidly and strongly. Such a reform will effectively bring about hardship for most local governments. In such an economic environment, increase in public investment for remote island villages is highly unlikely. The consequence of reduction in economic support for villages such as Kitadaito may be more than reversal of the recently established ideal development; it may be the complete impoverishment and depopulation of the island community.
Our research aims to evaluate quantitatively how the land use policy or public transport policy, which are considered to environment, will economically affect an urban area, in the case of the Sendai metropolitan area. A character of the research is as follows. First, we analyze a transport policy by zone unit. Second, we calculate many indices (e.g. land prices, gross production, and utility) for policy evaluation by integrated model which include transport, environment, economic sector. We use an approach of general equilibrium model, because there are limitations on economic statistic data in zone. As a result, it is found that introducing the transport policy leads positive effect with enlarging convenience of household. And this model is possible to work with a transport model with simple operation. So it enables to transfer this model to another region which has a transport model. Our model could calculate a regional economic activity with transport model from the installation of transport policy.
The purpose of this paper is to estimate the value of the coral reefs in the Kerama Islands in Okinawa and to clarify the reasons for biases in the responses to the questionnaires. This research was conducted at Zamami village in March 2003, and the respondents to the questionnaires were passengers on ships between Naha and Zamami. The questionnaire is based on “Contingent Valuation Method” (CVM), which is used to evaluate the non-used value of the environment. In this questionnaire, we used the “double-bounded two-choice approach” in order to determine the passengers' willingness to pay (WTP) for the conservation of Kerama's coral reefs. Coral reefs are very important resources for ecology and the economy, especially in island areas like Okinawa. They have several public functions that provide material and spiritual benefits to human beings with regard to fisheries, ocean biodiversity value, purification of the ocean, underwater views, coastal protection, resources for tourism and recreation and so on. Recently, however, the drastic changes in certain environmental conditions have caused considerable damage to the coral reefs. We should recognize the necessity of protecting the coral reefs in order to retain their public functions; hence, we attempted to define the value of conservation of the Kerama coral reefs. First, we estimated the passengers' WTP for the conservation of the Kerama coral reefs, using the Turnbull method, which is a type of survival analysis. The results revealed that the average WTP per person was 3, 995 yen, and the total value for the annual passengers traveling to Zamami village was 367, 488, 065 yen per year. Second, we considered protest responses in order to assess the reliability of CVM as a method of evaluating environmental value. A total of 94 protest responses were obtained in this research, and we analyzed the reasons for which the respondents expressed objections to the scenario presented in this questionnaire. We clarified four factors: The method of payment, the taxable, the area of conservation, and the misunderstanding of the scenario presented. Closely performing a pre-test can solve some of these problems. While CVM is one of the small-number methods that can measure the non-used value of the environment, such as biodiversity conservation, its results are debatable due to its hypothetical character. Therefore, we will continue to examine the reliability of CVM by repeating this research.